European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

Axalta Coating Systems Ltd. manufactures, markets and distributes coatings systems. The Company offers products and services which includes paint, color matching tools, application technologies, and customer  training and business management systems. Axalta Coating Systems serves automotive, transportation,  general industrial, and architectural and decorative sectors.

<ul>
<li>
 EU clearance appears increasingly likely following reports of a proposed vehicle-refinish divestiture, although the scope of the remedy, disposal proceeds and impact on synergies remain undisclosed.</li>
<li>Our revised synergy DCF values the $600m annual savings programme at €3.61bn after a 25% execution-risk discount. Losing $50–100m of annual savings would reduce that valuation by €0.33–0.66bn.</li>
<li>AkzoNobel's Asian disposals have secured attractive multiples, but the merger spread is just 0.2%. We see insufficient compensation for the remaining risks and would not initiate an arbitrage position.</li>
</ul>



 EU clearance appears increasingly likely following reports of a proposed vehicle-refinish divestiture, although the scope of the remedy, disposal proceeds and impact on synergies remain undisclosed.
Our revised synergy DCF values the $600m annual savings programme at €3.61bn after a 25% execution-risk discount. Losing $50–100m of annual savings would reduce that valuation by €0.33–0.66bn.
AkzoNobel's Asian disposals have secured attractive multiples, but the merger spread is just 0.2%. We see insufficient compensation for the remaining risks and would not initiate an arbitrage position.


AkzoNobel / Axalta: EU Remedies Take Shape

Founder at Stock Spin-off Investing, Stock Spin-Off Investing

Richard Howe

Founder at Stock Spin-off Investing

Stock Spin-Off Investing

Generate attractive returns by taking advantage of inefficiencies in the stock spin-off market.

Stock Spin-offs

IDT Corporation offers consumer services focused primarily on the telecommunications industry. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides retail and wholesale telecommunications services and products, including pre-paid and rechargeable calling cards and wholesale carrier services.

<ul><li>The S&amp;P 500 is sitting near 7,800, a record high.</li><li>At the same time, the 25-day average of new lows on the NYSE has spiked to levels we last saw in the April 2025 selloff.</li><li>The index is at an all-time high while a lot of individual stocks are trading like it’s a bear market.</li></ul>

The S&amp;P 500 is sitting near 7,800, a record high.At the same time, the 25-day average of new lows on the NYSE has spiked to levels we last saw in the April 2025 selloff.The index is at an all-time high while a lot of individual stocks are trading like it’s a bear market.

<ul><li>I’m closing out my IDT recommendation.</li><li>Not because I’ve soured on the company — I still like the business and the management team — but because the stock now trades right at my estimate of fair value, and I’d rather redeploy the proceeds into higher-conviction ideas.</li><li>Since I first recommended it, IDT has returned roughly 320%, making it my oldest and one of my most profitable recommendations.</li></ul>

I’m closing out my IDT recommendation.Not because I’ve soured on the company — I still like the business and the management team — but because the stock now trades right at my estimate of fair value, and I’d rather redeploy the proceeds into higher-conviction ideas.Since I first recommended it, IDT has returned roughly 320%, making it my oldest and one of my most profitable recommendations.

Medtronic, PLC develops therapeutic and diagnostic medical products. The Company's principal products include those for bradycardia pacing, tachyarrhythmia management, atrial fibrillation management, heart failure management, heart valve replacement, malignant and non-malignant pain, and movement disorders. Medtronic's products are sold worldwide.

<ul><li>Medtronic (MDT) announced an exchange offer on September 14, 2026 whereby investors can exchange their MDT shares for shares of MiniMed (MMED), Medtronic’s diabetes spin-off.</li><li>This is now an official recommendation.</li><li>I have already bought MDT shares and plan to buy more today.</li></ul>

Medtronic (MDT) announced an exchange offer on September 14, 2026 whereby investors can exchange their MDT shares for shares of MiniMed (MMED), Medtronic’s diabetes spin-off.This is now an official recommendation.I have already bought MDT shares and plan to buy more today.

Buy 99 Shares of MDT. MMED/MDT Exchange Offer – Special Situation

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Madison Square Garden Sports Corp. / Event-Driven

Madison Square Garden Sports Corp. is a professional sports company that owns and operates sports franchises.

Madison Square Garden Sports Corp. (MSGS US)

<ul>
<li>MSGS has set October 26, 2026 as the completion date for the Rangers spin. Holders of record on October 20 receive one SpinCo share for every two MSGS shares .</li>
<li>When-Issued trading will commence from October 21, while Regular-way trading will begin from October 27.</li>
<li>We expect the separation to improve price discovery and narrow the valuation discount, with October 21 when-issued trading providing the first market based assessment of each franchise.</li>
</ul>


MSGS has set October 26, 2026 as the completion date for the Rangers spin. Holders of record on October 20 receive one SpinCo share for every two MSGS shares .
When-Issued trading will commence from October 21, while Regular-way trading will begin from October 27.
We expect the separation to improve price discovery and narrow the valuation discount, with October 21 when-issued trading providing the first market based assessment of each franchise.


Madison Square Garden Sports (NYSE: MSGS) To Complete Rangers Spin-Off on October 26

US Event-Driven
US event-driven, risk-arb & special-sits

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Medtronic (MDT) announced an exchange offer on September 14, 2026 whereby investors can exchange their MDT shares for shares of MiniMed (MMED),...

Richard Howe

Madison Square Garden Sports (NYSE: MSGS) To Complete Rangers Spin-Off on October 26

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GSBR Research