Equity/Index & Cross Asset Volatility Specialist, Cameron Design

Jay Cameron

Equity/Index & Cross Asset Volatility Specialist

Cameron Design

We specialize in financial products and volatility. Our strategies balance speed, data, and risk control to capture opportunities across global markets. Our research leverages AI and data analytics to continuously refine our algorithms and adapt to evolving market dynamics.

Event-Driven

TSURUHA HOLDINGS INC. is a holding company which manages subsidiaries that operate drug stores in Hokkaido and the Tohoku area.  The Company's product line includes drugs, cosmetics, and household utensils.

<ul>
<li>The Tsuruha-Welcia merger creates Japan's largest drugstore alliance, poised for long-term growth and market dominance, driven by an expected JPY 50B in synergies over three years.</li>
<li>A two-step corporate action—share exchange (Dec 1, 2025) followed by an Aeon TOB—provides structural certainty and strategic backing, securing the combined entity's market leadership.</li>
<li>These catalysts establish a large market leader in the consumer staples space, suggesting a timely opportunity to gain exposure to the new entity.</li>
</ul>


The Tsuruha-Welcia merger creates Japan's largest drugstore alliance, poised for long-term growth and market dominance, driven by an expected JPY 50B in synergies over three years.
A two-step corporate action—share exchange (Dec 1, 2025) followed by an Aeon TOB—provides structural certainty and strategic backing, securing the combined entity's market leadership.
These catalysts establish a large market leader in the consumer staples space, suggesting a timely opportunity to gain exposure to the new entity.


Tsuruha-Welcia Merger to Form Biggest Drugstore Alliance, +Aeon TOB

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Steadfast Group Ltd is a provider of services to broker businesses across Australia, New Zealand and Singapore. The Company has equity interests in insurance broker businesses, underwriting agencies and other complementary businesses.

<ul>
<li>First, EQT, then CVC joined, in a A$45/share NBIO for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aub-group-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11179:1" rel="noopener">AUB (AUB AU)</a>, an insurance "matchmaker": <a href="https://skr.ma/J2CwJ" target="_blank" rel="noopener">CVC Joins EQT In Pursuit Of AUB Group (AUB AU)</a>. Talks <a href="https://announcements.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20251201/pdf/06sr2bsh6yv802.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">ceased</a> this week. </li>
<li>Reportedly, AUB’s larger insurance rival, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/steadfast-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8181:1" rel="noopener">Steadfast (SDF AU)</a>, is now attracting PE interest, such as Blackstone.</li>
<li>Steadfast is down ~25% from its recent high following a workplace complaint towards CEO/MD/founder Robert Kelly - now concluded on "a confidential basis", with Kelly resuming his roles. </li>
</ul>


First, EQT, then CVC joined, in a A$45/share NBIO for AUB (AUB AU), an insurance "matchmaker": CVC Joins EQT In Pursuit Of AUB Group (AUB AU). Talks ceased this week. 
Reportedly, AUB’s larger insurance rival, Steadfast (SDF AU), is now attracting PE interest, such as Blackstone.
Steadfast is down ~25% from its recent high following a workplace complaint towards CEO/MD/founder Robert Kelly - now concluded on "a confidential basis", with Kelly resuming his roles. 


Steadfast (SDF AU): Suitors Circle As Share Price Languishes After Internal Complaint

Korea / Special Situations, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Situations

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

Wonik IPS Co., Ltd. manufactures and sells semiconductor processing equipments.  The Company's main businesses include Semiconductor, Display and Solar industries.

<ul>
<li>Fresh intel hit at lunch. Official rollout is penciled for the 11th or 12th, sourced straight from a key gov’t operator and pushed to Hankyung.</li>
<li>The package basically boils down to two levers: juiced tax perks for retail in Kosdaq venture funds and a structural bump-up in pension-fund allocation.</li>
<li>Street sees this as constructive: tax tweaks to pull retail, pension weight-ups to juice flows, and focus on 300bn+ Kosdaq names that beat Q3 consensus 10%+.</li>
</ul>


Fresh intel hit at lunch. Official rollout is penciled for the 11th or 12th, sourced straight from a key gov’t operator and pushed to Hankyung.
The package basically boils down to two levers: juiced tax perks for retail in Kosdaq venture funds and a structural bump-up in pension-fund allocation.
Street sees this as constructive: tax tweaks to pull retail, pension weight-ups to juice flows, and focus on 300bn+ Kosdaq names that beat Q3 consensus 10%+.


Fresh Intel: Kosdaq Stimulus Drop Date & Key Targets

Dongfeng Motor Group Company Limited, through joint ventures, designs, manufactures, and markets diesel engines, light trucks, automobiles, castings, and related spare parts.

<ul>
<li>Back on the 22nd August 2025, SOE-backed <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dongfeng-motor-group-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:910:1" rel="noopener">Dongfeng Motor (489 HK)</a> announced a privatisation; together with a concurrent listing of its EV arm, VOYAH. The two proposals are interconditional.</li>
<li>In its October <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/app/sehk/2025/107757/documents/sehk25100202720.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">application proof</a>, VOYAH turned a profit in 7M25.  The market was implying a price-to-trailing-sales of 1.5x for VOYAH, versus the basket average of 2.1x. It's now ~1.2x.</li>
<li>Key PRC reg approvals (Mofcom/NDRC/SAFE) remain outstanding. Meanwhile, a basket of peers are down 21% since the dual proposals were announced. And their average price-to-trailing-sales are down to 1.7x. </li>
</ul>


Back on the 22nd August 2025, SOE-backed Dongfeng Motor (489 HK) announced a privatisation; together with a concurrent listing of its EV arm, VOYAH. The two proposals are interconditional.
In its October application proof, VOYAH turned a profit in 7M25.  The market was implying a price-to-trailing-sales of 1.5x for VOYAH, versus the basket average of 2.1x. It's now ~1.2x.
Key PRC reg approvals (Mofcom/NDRC/SAFE) remain outstanding. Meanwhile, a basket of peers are down 21% since the dual proposals were announced. And their average price-to-trailing-sales are down to 1.7x. 


Dongfeng (489 HK): Revisiting VOYAH's Spin-Off Valuation

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

<ul>
<li>The Tsuruha and Welcia merger before the year’s close, backed by Aeon, is targeting ¥50 billion in cost savings over three years. </li>
<li>As well as the massive economies of scale, consolidated procurement, revamped private brands and a unified points and customer‑ID strategy are central to this.</li>
<li>However, weak food offerings, legacy stores and IT complexity still threaten sustainable profit recovery as is the question of who will be in charge.</li>
</ul>


The Tsuruha and Welcia merger before the year’s close, backed by Aeon, is targeting ¥50 billion in cost savings over three years. 
As well as the massive economies of scale, consolidated procurement, revamped private brands and a unified points and customer‑ID strategy are central to this.
However, weak food offerings, legacy stores and IT complexity still threaten sustainable profit recovery as is the question of who will be in charge.


Tsuruha-Welcia: Will Scale Translate into Profit?

Asian event-driven, risk-arb & special-sits

Asia Event-Driven
Asian event-driven, risk-arb & special-sits

Tsuruha-Welcia Merger to Form Biggest Drugstore Alliance, +Aeon TOB

Aeon’s partial TOB for Tsuruha Holdings is targeting 43,240,590 shares at 2900 per share, or around JPY 125B notional running from Dec 3 to Jan 6. ...

Jay Cameron

Fresh Intel: Kosdaq Stimulus Drop Date & Key Targets

Fresh intel just in on the government’s Kosdaq stimulus drop date, with a first look at the main target basket likely to catch flows.

Sanghyun Park

Dongfeng (489 HK): Revisiting VOYAH's Spin-Off Valuation

There's been a lot of enthusiasm for HK spin-offs of late, such as Zijin Mining and MINISO. I'm not convinced Dongfeng Motor deserves similar...

David Blennerhassett

Tsuruha-Welcia: Will Scale Translate into Profit?

Tsuruha-Welcia merger aims for ¥50 billion in savings through procurement, private brands, and stores, but faces challenges in weak food...

Michael Causton

Tsuruha-Welcia Merger to Form Biggest Drugstore Alliance, +Aeon TOB

Aeon’s partial TOB for Tsuruha Holdings is targeting 43,240,590 shares at 2900 per share, or around JPY 125B notional running from Dec 3 to Jan 6. ...

Jay Cameron

Steadfast (SDF AU): Suitors Circle As Share Price Languishes After Internal Complaint

There is, as yet, no Offer. Steadfast's share price has failed to recover from the internal complaint. EQTCVC walking from AUB does no favours....

David Blennerhassett

Fresh Intel: Kosdaq Stimulus Drop Date & Key Targets

Fresh intel just in on the government’s Kosdaq stimulus drop date, with a first look at the main target basket likely to catch flows.

Sanghyun Park

Dongfeng (489 HK): Revisiting VOYAH's Spin-Off Valuation

There's been a lot of enthusiasm for HK spin-offs of late, such as Zijin Mining and MINISO. I'm not convinced Dongfeng Motor deserves similar...

David Blennerhassett

Tsuruha-Welcia: Will Scale Translate into Profit?

​Tsuruha-Welcia merger aims for ¥50 billion in savings through procurement, private brands, and stores, but faces challenges in weak food...

Michael Causton

Tsuruha-Welcia merger aims for ¥50 billion in savings through procurement, private brands, and stores, but faces challenges in weak food...