IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

Kakaku.com, Inc provides price comparison services and products information through its website.  The Company also provides Internet advertising services.

<ul>
<li>EQT/DG raised its <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kakaku-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7408:1" rel="noopener">Kakaku.com Inc (2371 JP)</a> offer by JPY1 to JPY3,682, extending the closing date to 28 October. The bump buys time as EQT/DG still lacks minimum acceptances.</li>
<li>Bain/LY's silence likely signals one decisive bump, ideally above JPY3,756 and towards the JPY3,923 DCF high end. But each idle extension gives Oasis and KDDI time to side with EQT/DG.</li>
<li>At JPY3,800, upside is limited (+2.2% to +3.2%) against a -3.1% base downside and a severe (low-probability) tail risk. Taking some money off the table is sensible.</li>
</ul>


EQT/DG raised its Kakaku.com Inc (2371 JP) offer by JPY1 to JPY3,682, extending the closing date to 28 October. The bump buys time as EQT/DG still lacks minimum acceptances.
Bain/LY's silence likely signals one decisive bump, ideally above JPY3,756 and towards the JPY3,923 DCF high end. But each idle extension gives Oasis and KDDI time to side with EQT/DG.
At JPY3,800, upside is limited (+2.2% to +3.2%) against a -3.1% base downside and a severe (low-probability) tail risk. Taking some money off the table is sensible.


Kakaku.com (2371 JP): Third JPY1 Bump, Same Stalemate, Limited Upside Left

European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Iveco Group N.V. is a global automotive leader specializing in commercial and specialty vehicles, powertrains, and related financial services. It designs, manufactures, and markets light, medium, and heavy-duty trucks, buses, and advanced powertrain technologies. The company is headquartered in Turin, Italy, and was established on January 1, 2022, following its demerger from CNH Industrial.

<ul>
<li>Tata Motors Raises Its Iveco Offer to €14.40 Per Share, Declaring It Best and Final. Iveco's Board Supports the Increase Ahead of the 16 October EGM.</li>
<li>At €14.355, the Remaining 0.31% Gross Spread Annualises to 6.73%, Assuming Payment on 30 October. The Acceptance Threshold Remains Subject to Shareholder Approval.</li>
<li>Completion Risk Remains Low, but the Absolute Upside Is Insufficient. We Would Not Initiate at Current Levels and Retain Our Neutral View, Raising Our Target to €14.40.</li>
</ul>


Tata Motors Raises Its Iveco Offer to €14.40 Per Share, Declaring It Best and Final. Iveco's Board Supports the Increase Ahead of the 16 October EGM.
At €14.355, the Remaining 0.31% Gross Spread Annualises to 6.73%, Assuming Payment on 30 October. The Acceptance Threshold Remains Subject to Shareholder Approval.
Completion Risk Remains Low, but the Absolute Upside Is Insufficient. We Would Not Initiate at Current Levels and Retain Our Neutral View, Raising Our Target to €14.40.


Tata Motors / Iveco: One Last Gear Change

Austal Limited is an emerging global defence prime contractor. The Group supplies vessel platforms such as the Littoral Combat Ship and the Joint High Speed Vessel to the United States Navy, an extensive range of patrol and auxiliary vessels to defence forces around the world, and installs and maintains military communications, radar and command and control systems.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hanwha-ocean-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12531:1" rel="noopener">Hanwha Ocean (042660 KS)</a> is now negotiating deal terms with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/austal-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14420:1" rel="noopener">Austal Ltd (ASB AU)</a> after substantially completing diligence, while Wildcat’s competing proposal remains at the non-binding dialogue stage.</li>
<li>Tax structuring advice and extended diligence signal a late-stage process, making a binding Hanwha offer materially more likely; price remains the key open question.</li>
<li>My revised SoTP values Austal at A$4.84–$6.97 per share, 17–69% above A$4.13. The gap reflects AUSA deal-completion risk plus a standalone Australasia scale discount — not fundamentals alone.</li>
</ul>



Hanwha Ocean (042660 KS) is now negotiating deal terms with Austal Ltd (ASB AU) after substantially completing diligence, while Wildcat’s competing proposal remains at the non-binding dialogue stage.
Tax structuring advice and extended diligence signal a late-stage process, making a binding Hanwha offer materially more likely; price remains the key open question.
My revised SoTP values Austal at A$4.84–$6.97 per share, 17–69% above A$4.13. The gap reflects AUSA deal-completion risk plus a standalone Australasia scale discount — not fundamentals alone.


Austal (ASB AU): Hanwha Pulls Ahead of Wildcat in the Race for Austal USA

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Mayne Pharma Group Ltd. develops and manufactures oral pharmaceuticals.  The Company produces branded generics, specialty generics, and active pharmaceutical ingredients.

<ul>
<li>Back on the 21st Feb 2025, <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mayne-pharma-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:757:1" rel="noopener">Mayne Pharma (MYX AU)</a></strong> entered into a Scheme with US-based pharmaceutical outfit, Cosette Pharmaceuticals, at A$7.40/share. The wheels fell off the deal shortly afterward.</li>
<li>Cosette issued a "<em>material adverse change</em>" notice concerning a FDA warning/notice (on Nextstellis®) and Mayne's earnings guidance.  The Supreme Court disagreed. Cosette appealed. The Court has now dismissed that appeal.</li>
<li>Cosette's concurrent threat to shut the Salisbury manufacturing plant lead to Treasurer Jim Chalmers blocking the deal last November. Thanks Jim. Absent your intervention, Cosette had no legal out.</li>
</ul>


Back on the 21st Feb 2025, Mayne Pharma (MYX AU) entered into a Scheme with US-based pharmaceutical outfit, Cosette Pharmaceuticals, at A$7.40/share. The wheels fell off the deal shortly afterward.
Cosette issued a "material adverse change" notice concerning a FDA warning/notice (on Nextstellis®) and Mayne's earnings guidance.  The Supreme Court disagreed. Cosette appealed. The Court has now dismissed that appeal.
Cosette's concurrent threat to shut the Salisbury manufacturing plant lead to Treasurer Jim Chalmers blocking the deal last November. Thanks Jim. Absent your intervention, Cosette had no legal out.


Mayne Pharma (MYX AU): This One's On You Jim As Court Dismisses Cosette's Appeal

Permanent Tsb Group Holdings P / Event-Driven

Permanent TSB Group Holdings Public Limited Company provides retail financial services in the Irish domestic banking market. The Company offers banking and financial services to customers including current accounts, retail and corporate deposits, residential mortgages, credit cards, term loans, general insurance, pensions, investments, and life insurance.

<ul>
<li>BAWAG’s €2.97 cash offer remains the only firm bid. Axis’s indicative €3.20 proposal offers 6.0% upside from €3.02 but lacks committed financing.</li>
<li>The 27 October High Court hearing could disrupt the scheme. BAWAG retains alternative implementation options, supported by the Irish government’s 57.5% stake.</li>
<li>Our €2.98 probability-weighted target offers no upside at current levels. Standalone value of €2.53 implies 16.2% downside if the acquisition fails.</li>
</ul>


BAWAG’s €2.97 cash offer remains the only firm bid. Axis’s indicative €3.20 proposal offers 6.0% upside from €3.02 but lacks committed financing.
The 27 October High Court hearing could disrupt the scheme. BAWAG retains alternative implementation options, supported by the Irish government’s 57.5% stake.
Our €2.98 probability-weighted target offers no upside at current levels. Standalone value of €2.53 implies 16.2% downside if the acquisition fails.


Permanent TSB: €3.20 Is Not Yet an Offer

Event-Driven
Event-Driven Insights

Kakaku.com (2371 JP): Third JPY1 Bump, Same Stalemate, Limited Upside Left

EQT/DG's JPY1 bump to JPY3,682 buys time, not a win. Bain/LY's silence likely signals one decisive bump. At JPY3,800, the risk/reward is not...

Arun George

Tata Motors / Iveco: One Last Gear Change

Tata has raised its Iveco offer to a best-and-final €14.40. With the EGM approaching and settlement scheduled for October, we assess the remaining...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Austal (ASB AU): Hanwha Pulls Ahead of Wildcat in the Race for Austal USA

Hanwha is negotiating terms and leads Wildcat for Austal USA; a binding offer looks likely. SoTP of A$4.84–6.97/sh implies 17–69% upside to A$4.13.

Arun George

Mayne Pharma (MYX AU): This One's On You Jim As Court Dismisses Cosette's Appeal

Mayne is 61% adrift of Cosette's Offer price. Yet, Mayne doesn't scream "buy" here. 5x+ forward EV/EBITDA is ok. The market is expecting EBITDA to...

David Blennerhassett

Permanent TSB: €3.20 Is Not Yet an Offer

PTSB trades above BAWAG’s €2.97 firm offer, while Axis’s €3.20 proposal remains unfinanced. With Court risk and 16% standalone downside, is the...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar