European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

Vivendi SE provides culture, entertainment, media, and communication services. The Company specializes in audiovisual and cinema, communications, magazines, gaming, live performance, and distribution platform activities. Vivendi serves customers worldwide.

<ul>
<li>Holdco dispersion persists: GBL simplifies and strengthens liquidity yet trades at –30.5%; Industrivärden and Investor remain unusually tight; Heineken Holding stable in its post-Covid range.</li>
<li>Porsche SE’s ~30% discount aligns with “no-liability” scenarios, while Rio Tinto’s DLC premium stays structurally elevated, leaving convergence trades dependent on governance catalysts rather than statistical mean reversion.</li>
<li>Vivendi’s discount widened to 42% on legal timing noise; AMF logic unchanged. Optionality rebuilt, making Vivendi the most asymmetric setup in the current holdco universe.</li>
</ul>


Holdco dispersion persists: GBL simplifies and strengthens liquidity yet trades at –30.5%; Industrivärden and Investor remain unusually tight; Heineken Holding stable in its post-Covid range.
Porsche SE’s ~30% discount aligns with “no-liability” scenarios, while Rio Tinto’s DLC premium stays structurally elevated, leaving convergence trades dependent on governance catalysts rather than statistical mean reversion.
Vivendi’s discount widened to 42% on legal timing noise; AMF logic unchanged. Optionality rebuilt, making Vivendi the most asymmetric setup in the current holdco universe.


Selected European HoldCos and DLC: November 2025 Report

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Douglas Research Advisory

Wacker Neuson SE designs, builds and markets light construction equipment and construction machines.  The Company's products are offered in the construction, gardening, landscaping and agricultural, as well as municipal bodies and companies in the industrial and recycling sectors.  Wacker also provides rental, spare parts, and repair services.

<ul>
<li>According to numerous local media, Doosan Bobcat is pursuing the acquisition of a controlling stake in Wacker Neuson Se (WAC GR), a German based compact construction equipment company. </li>
<li>Doosan Bobcat is apparently discussing a plan to acquire approximately 60% of Wacker Neuson. There are also discussions to secure the remaining shares of the company through a tender offer. </li>
<li>Wacker Neuson has a market cap of 1.46 billion EUR (2.5 trillion won) and the acquisition value for a 100% stake is expected to be more than 5 trillion won.</li>
</ul>


According to numerous local media, Doosan Bobcat is pursuing the acquisition of a controlling stake in Wacker Neuson Se (WAC GR), a German based compact construction equipment company. 
Doosan Bobcat is apparently discussing a plan to acquire approximately 60% of Wacker Neuson. There are also discussions to secure the remaining shares of the company through a tender offer. 
Wacker Neuson has a market cap of 1.46 billion EUR (2.5 trillion won) and the acquisition value for a 100% stake is expected to be more than 5 trillion won.


Doosan Bobcat: To Acquire the Controlling Stake & Conduct Tender Offer of Wacker Neuson?

Zegona Communications plc is an investment company. The Company buys and sells businesses in the European Telecommunications, Media and Technology (''TMT'') sectors.

<ul>
<li>Zegona has unlocked €1.8bn via fiber monetization, enabling a €1.6bn capital return and transforming its balance sheet with 69% share count reduction and lower leverage.</li>
<li>Trading at ~6.7x EBITDAaL, Zegona offers embedded upside through strategic rerating or a control premium from Telefónica or MasOrange, both reportedly exploring bids.</li>
<li>Post-Buyback, per-share economics improve dramatically, with lower debt, rising EBITDA, and potential for further upside via fiber JVs or a formal takeover process.</li>
</ul>


Zegona has unlocked €1.8bn via fiber monetization, enabling a €1.6bn capital return and transforming its balance sheet with 69% share count reduction and lower leverage.
Trading at ~6.7x EBITDAaL, Zegona offers embedded upside through strategic rerating or a control premium from Telefónica or MasOrange, both reportedly exploring bids.
Post-Buyback, per-share economics improve dramatically, with lower debt, rising EBITDA, and potential for further upside via fiber JVs or a formal takeover process.


Zegona Communications: From Turnaround to Capital Return Vehicle with M&A Optionality

Aedas Homes S.A.U. operates as a real estate developer. The Company designs homes and residential projects, as well as provides development of plots of land. Aedas Homes serves property sector in Spain.

<ul>
<li>CNMV approves Neinor’s €21.335 voluntary OPA; minorities unlikely to tender, making the mandatory €24 offer the highest-probability exit with minimal regulatory risk.</li>
<li>Aedas trades at €23.65, pricing a near-certain €24 outcome. Remaining 1.48% spread offers a high-certainty, mid–single-digit annualized IRR driven primarily by timing, not deal completion.</li>
<li>Key tail event is a &gt;90% acceptance squeeze-out at €21.335, but probability remains extremely low. Most realistic path is a mandatory €24 OPA settling mid–February 2026.</li>
</ul>


CNMV approves Neinor’s €21.335 voluntary OPA; minorities unlikely to tender, making the mandatory €24 offer the highest-probability exit with minimal regulatory risk.
Aedas trades at €23.65, pricing a near-certain €24 outcome. Remaining 1.48% spread offers a high-certainty, mid–single-digit annualized IRR driven primarily by timing, not deal completion.
Key tail event is a &gt;90% acceptance squeeze-out at €21.335, but probability remains extremely low. Most realistic path is a mandatory €24 OPA settling mid–February 2026.


CNMV Clears Neinor’s OPA; Mandatory €24 Offer for Aedas Minorities Now Base Case

Ercros SA is an industrial company focused on the manufacture and sale of chemical and pharmaceutical products. It is listed on the Spanish Stock Exchange.  The company is divided  into three areas of activity: a business strategic unit, the intermediate chemicals division, and the pharmaceuticals division. Ecros serves clients worldwide.

<ul>
<li>Spain’s Ministry of Economy has validated the CNMC’s conditional approval of Bondalti’s €3.505/share bid, removing all regulatory risk and shifting the focus entirely to CNMV processing, acceptance, and deal execution.</li>
<li>Ercros’s deteriorating fundamentals and thin liquidity heighten shareholder-acceptance uncertainty; ~75% tender is required, while prior minority opposition and elevated trough-cycle multiples complicate the risk-reward despite regulatory de-risking.</li>
<li>With shares at €3.30, the spread has compressed to ~6%, offering a short-dated carry trade with a 45–55% annualised IRR if settlement occurs by February 2026, versus a €2.56 break.</li>
</ul>


Spain’s Ministry of Economy has validated the CNMC’s conditional approval of Bondalti’s €3.505/share bid, removing all regulatory risk and shifting the focus entirely to CNMV processing, acceptance, and deal execution.
Ercros’s deteriorating fundamentals and thin liquidity heighten shareholder-acceptance uncertainty; ~75% tender is required, while prior minority opposition and elevated trough-cycle multiples complicate the risk-reward despite regulatory de-risking.
With shares at €3.30, the spread has compressed to ~6%, offering a short-dated carry trade with a 45–55% annualised IRR if settlement occurs by February 2026, versus a €2.56 break.


Bondalti-Ercros: From Regulatory Clearance to Shareholder Countdown

European event-driven, risk-arb & special-sits

Europe Event-Driven
European event-driven, risk-arb & special-sits

Selected European HoldCos and DLC: November 2025 Report

Holdco discounts diverged in November: GBL strengthens its case, Investor stays rich, Porsche SE sits at structural levels, Vivendi’s setback...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Doosan Bobcat: To Acquire the Controlling Stake & Conduct Tender Offer of Wacker Neuson?

According to numerous local media, Doosan Bobcat is pursuing the acquisition of a controlling stake in Wacker Neuson Se (WAC GR), a German based...

Douglas Kim

Zegona Communications: From Turnaround to Capital Return Vehicle with M&A Optionality

Zegona has transitioned from turnaround to capital return, unlocking €1.8bn, reducing leverage, and remaining a live M&A target—offering 20–50%...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

CNMV Clears Neinor’s OPA; Mandatory €24 Offer for Aedas Minorities Now Base Case

CNMV approval confirms Neinor’s voluntary OPA, but minorities are positioned for a mandatory €24 offer. With Aedas at €23.65, a near-certain...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Bondalti-Ercros: From Regulatory Clearance to Shareholder Countdown

Bondalti’s bid for Ercros is fully cleared. Only shareholder acceptance remains. A 6% spread offers short-dated carry into early 2026, but...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar