European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

Ercros SA is an industrial company focused on the manufacture and sale of chemical and pharmaceutical products. It is listed on the Spanish Stock Exchange.  The company is divided  into three areas of activity: a business strategic unit, the intermediate chemicals division, and the pharmaceuticals division. Ecros serves clients worldwide.

<ul>
<li>Bondalti lowered the minimum acceptance threshold to &gt;50%, materially reducing execution risk and shifting the Ercros takeover into its final phase, with regulatory approvals complete and no interloper risk.</li>
<li>With Ercros closing at €3.42, the remaining spread to the €3.505 cash offer is ~2.5%, reflecting a market-implied completion probability near 90% and a high-confidence, short-dated carry profile.</li>
<li>Base-Case settlement: early to mid-February 2026 following CNMV approval and a standard acceptance period; returns are now driven by timing rather than outcome. Liquidity remains thin and sizing discipline essential.</li>
</ul>


Bondalti lowered the minimum acceptance threshold to &gt;50%, materially reducing execution risk and shifting the Ercros takeover into its final phase, with regulatory approvals complete and no interloper risk.
With Ercros closing at €3.42, the remaining spread to the €3.505 cash offer is ~2.5%, reflecting a market-implied completion probability near 90% and a high-confidence, short-dated carry profile.
Base-Case settlement: early to mid-February 2026 following CNMV approval and a standard acceptance period; returns are now driven by timing rather than outcome. Liquidity remains thin and sizing discipline essential.


Bondalti-Ercros: Acceptance Risk Removed, Deal Enters Final Execution Phase

Alphawave IP Group plc provides next generation wired connectivity technology, enabling data to travel faster, more reliably and using less power. The Company serves customers in digital infrastructure markets worldwide.

<ul>
<li>Scheme sanctioned, settlement imminent: Alphawave’s acquisition by Qualcomm has cleared all regulatory and legal hurdles. With court approval now secured, shares will delist on 19 December.</li>
<li>Spread fully closed: At a 17 Dec close of 184.6p and FX-implied offer value of ~185.07p, the deal trades at a negligible +0.26% gross spread, eliminating upside for new entrants.</li>
<li>Attractive return for early entrants: Arbitrageurs positioned around 177–179p captured ~3–4% gross return, annualizing to ~8%. Clean execution, founder alignment, and low regulatory friction supported a high-certainty event-driven trade.</li>
</ul>


Scheme sanctioned, settlement imminent: Alphawave’s acquisition by Qualcomm has cleared all regulatory and legal hurdles. With court approval now secured, shares will delist on 19 December.
Spread fully closed: At a 17 Dec close of 184.6p and FX-implied offer value of ~185.07p, the deal trades at a negligible +0.26% gross spread, eliminating upside for new entrants.
Attractive return for early entrants: Arbitrageurs positioned around 177–179p captured ~3–4% gross return, annualizing to ~8%. Clean execution, founder alignment, and low regulatory friction supported a high-certainty event-driven trade.


Qualcomm - Alphawave: Closing the Loop on a Clean Trade

MFE-MediaForEurope N.V. is a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, operates television broadcasting, television production, signal broadcasting management, and music production businesses, as well as television stations. MFE-MediaForEurope serves customers in Europe.

<ul>
<li>December spreads were technically noisy but structurally neutral: median unchanged, dispersion high, with year-end flows interrupting—but not invalidating—ongoing convergence across Europe’s dual-class universe.</li>
<li>Marginal voting premia continue to erode where control is entrenched: Henkel, Grifols and Roche show further compression as governance risk fades and incremental voting rights lose economic relevance.</li>
<li>Nordic anomalies remain unresolved: Handelsbanken’s &gt;70% premium and SSAB’s anchored discount continue to reflect flow and structural frictions rather than voting economics, offering the clearest dispersion opportunities into 2026.</li>
</ul>


December spreads were technically noisy but structurally neutral: median unchanged, dispersion high, with year-end flows interrupting—but not invalidating—ongoing convergence across Europe’s dual-class universe.
Marginal voting premia continue to erode where control is entrenched: Henkel, Grifols and Roche show further compression as governance risk fades and incremental voting rights lose economic relevance.
Nordic anomalies remain unresolved: Handelsbanken’s &gt;70% premium and SSAB’s anchored discount continue to reflect flow and structural frictions rather than voting economics, offering the clearest dispersion opportunities into 2026.


Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: December'25 Report

Anglo American PLC is a global mining company. The Company's mining portfolio includes bulk commodities including iron ore, manganese and metallurgical coal, base metals including copper and nickel and precious metals and minerals including platinum and diamonds.  Anglo American PLC has mining operations in Africa, Europe, North and South America, Asia and Australia.

<ul>
<li>Shareholder approvals landed; focus shifts to ICA net-benefit review, remaining competition clearances, and B.C. court. Companies guide engagement through 2026; antitrust looks manageable; ICA undertakings will dictate pace and probability.</li>
<li>On today’s marks, the pair nets ~2.9% after AAL’s US$4.19 special; ~2.3% if one ordinary (~US$0.21) also hits pre-close. Trade: long TECK(B)/short 1.3301 AAL, FX-hedged (GBP/CAD + USD overlay).</li>
<li>De Beers base ~US$3.2bn (US$2.7–3.7bn); supports AAL optics, not ratio. Pre-adjacency EV/EBITDA ~7.0–7.8x vs 6.0× median; potential drift toward ~8.0–8.4x post-ICA and early synergies.</li>
</ul>


Shareholder approvals landed; focus shifts to ICA net-benefit review, remaining competition clearances, and B.C. court. Companies guide engagement through 2026; antitrust looks manageable; ICA undertakings will dictate pace and probability.
On today’s marks, the pair nets ~2.9% after AAL’s US$4.19 special; ~2.3% if one ordinary (~US$0.21) also hits pre-close. Trade: long TECK(B)/short 1.3301 AAL, FX-hedged (GBP/CAD + USD overlay).
De Beers base ~US$3.2bn (US$2.7–3.7bn); supports AAL optics, not ratio. Pre-adjacency EV/EBITDA ~7.0–7.8x vs 6.0× median; potential drift toward ~8.0–8.4x post-ICA and early synergies.


Anglo Teck — Votes Landed, Focus Turns to ICA

Kloeckner & Co SE distributes a wide range of steel and metal products.

<ul>
<li>Worthington’s due diligence introduces a credible takeout path, with Kloeckner trading on event probability rather than fundamentals. Concentrated ownership means pricing must satisfy the 41% anchor shareholder to advance discussions.</li>
<li>Standalone equity value sits near €7.05 per share once full balance-sheet obligations are incorporated. Identifiable synergies of €60–85m annually support a realistic takeover corridor of €8.25–9.78 per share.</li>
<li>Worthington has ample balance-sheet capacity to fund the acquisition. Pro forma leverage of 2.7–3.2× under a standard mixed-financing structure is comfortably financeable, making the transaction large but feasible.</li>
</ul>


Worthington’s due diligence introduces a credible takeout path, with Kloeckner trading on event probability rather than fundamentals. Concentrated ownership means pricing must satisfy the 41% anchor shareholder to advance discussions.
Standalone equity value sits near €7.05 per share once full balance-sheet obligations are incorporated. Identifiable synergies of €60–85m annually support a realistic takeover corridor of €8.25–9.78 per share.
Worthington has ample balance-sheet capacity to fund the acquisition. Pro forma leverage of 2.7–3.2× under a standard mixed-financing structure is comfortably financeable, making the transaction large but feasible.


Worthington Steel - Kloeckner: Strategic Optionality Emerges as Worthington’s Due Diligence Advances

European event-driven, risk-arb & special-sits

Europe Event-Driven
European event-driven, risk-arb & special-sits

Bondalti-Ercros: Acceptance Risk Removed, Deal Enters Final Execution Phase

Bondalti has de-risked its Ercros bid by cutting the acceptance threshold to 50%. With shares at €3.42 versus a €3.505 offer, the trade is now a...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Qualcomm - Alphawave: Closing the Loop on a Clean Trade

With the scheme sanctioned and effectiveness imminent, Alphawave offers no spread at 184.6p vs. FX-implied value of ~185.1p. Arbitrage is done —...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: December'25 Report

December added technical noise, not thesis risk: median spreads were unchanged, convergence paused but intact, marginal voting premia erode, and...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Anglo Teck — Votes Landed, Focus Turns to ICA

Approvals secured; attention turns to Canada’s review and competition clearances. We keep a hedged stance and watch regulatory pacing and portfolio...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Worthington Steel - Kloeckner: Strategic Optionality Emerges as Worthington’s Due Diligence Advances

Worthington’s due diligence creates real takeout optionality. Kloeckner’s standalone value is ~€7.05; synergies lift a bid to €8.25–9.78....

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar