European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

Anglo American PLC is a global mining company. The Company's mining portfolio includes bulk commodities including iron ore, manganese and metallurgical coal, base metals including copper and nickel and precious metals and minerals including platinum and diamonds.  Anglo American PLC has mining operations in Africa, Europe, North and South America, Asia and Australia.

<ul>
<li>Shareholder approvals landed; focus shifts to ICA net-benefit review, remaining competition clearances, and B.C. court. Companies guide engagement through 2026; antitrust looks manageable; ICA undertakings will dictate pace and probability.</li>
<li>On today’s marks, the pair nets ~2.9% after AAL’s US$4.19 special; ~2.3% if one ordinary (~US$0.21) also hits pre-close. Trade: long TECK(B)/short 1.3301 AAL, FX-hedged (GBP/CAD + USD overlay).</li>
<li>De Beers base ~US$3.2bn (US$2.7–3.7bn); supports AAL optics, not ratio. Pre-adjacency EV/EBITDA ~7.0–7.8x vs 6.0× median; potential drift toward ~8.0–8.4x post-ICA and early synergies.</li>
</ul>


Shareholder approvals landed; focus shifts to ICA net-benefit review, remaining competition clearances, and B.C. court. Companies guide engagement through 2026; antitrust looks manageable; ICA undertakings will dictate pace and probability.
On today’s marks, the pair nets ~2.9% after AAL’s US$4.19 special; ~2.3% if one ordinary (~US$0.21) also hits pre-close. Trade: long TECK(B)/short 1.3301 AAL, FX-hedged (GBP/CAD + USD overlay).
De Beers base ~US$3.2bn (US$2.7–3.7bn); supports AAL optics, not ratio. Pre-adjacency EV/EBITDA ~7.0–7.8x vs 6.0× median; potential drift toward ~8.0–8.4x post-ICA and early synergies.


Anglo Teck — Votes Landed, Focus Turns to ICA

Kloeckner & Co SE distributes a wide range of steel and metal products.

<ul>
<li>Worthington’s due diligence introduces a credible takeout path, with Kloeckner trading on event probability rather than fundamentals. Concentrated ownership means pricing must satisfy the 41% anchor shareholder to advance discussions.</li>
<li>Standalone equity value sits near €7.05 per share once full balance-sheet obligations are incorporated. Identifiable synergies of €60–85m annually support a realistic takeover corridor of €8.25–9.78 per share.</li>
<li>Worthington has ample balance-sheet capacity to fund the acquisition. Pro forma leverage of 2.7–3.2× under a standard mixed-financing structure is comfortably financeable, making the transaction large but feasible.</li>
</ul>


Worthington’s due diligence introduces a credible takeout path, with Kloeckner trading on event probability rather than fundamentals. Concentrated ownership means pricing must satisfy the 41% anchor shareholder to advance discussions.
Standalone equity value sits near €7.05 per share once full balance-sheet obligations are incorporated. Identifiable synergies of €60–85m annually support a realistic takeover corridor of €8.25–9.78 per share.
Worthington has ample balance-sheet capacity to fund the acquisition. Pro forma leverage of 2.7–3.2× under a standard mixed-financing structure is comfortably financeable, making the transaction large but feasible.


Worthington Steel - Kloeckner: Strategic Optionality Emerges as Worthington’s Due Diligence Advances

Founder at Stock Spin-off Investing, Stock Spin-Off Investing

Richard Howe

Founder at Stock Spin-off Investing

Stock Spin-Off Investing

Generate attractive returns by taking advantage of inefficiencies in the stock spin-off market.

Stock Spin-offs

Unilever PLC manufactures personal care products. The Company offers consumer goods, food, detergents, fragrances, beauty, home, and personal care products. Unilever serves customers worldwide.

<ul><li>Unilever (UL) will spin-off the Magnum Ice Cream Company (MICC) next week. Regular way trading is expected to begin on December 8, 2025.</li><li>Shareholders and ADS holders will receive one Magnum Share for every five Unilever Shares or Unilever ADS.</li><li>The spin-off was announced in March 2024 as a way for Unilever to separate its lower margin, higher capital intensity business, leaving behind a higher quality business.</li></ul>

Unilever (UL) will spin-off the Magnum Ice Cream Company (MICC) next week. Regular way trading is expected to begin on December 8, 2025.Shareholders and ADS holders will receive one Magnum Share for every five Unilever Shares or Unilever ADS.The spin-off was announced in March 2024 as a way for Unilever to separate its lower margin, higher capital intensity business, leaving behind a higher quality business.

Grupo Catalana Occidente Sa / Event-Driven

Grupo Catalana Occidente, S.A., through subsidiaries, offers insurance.  The Company offers life, accident, health, automobile, marine, freight, and fire insurance.

<ul>
<li>Inocsa secures ~98% of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/grupo-catalana-occidente-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21272:1" rel="noopener">Grupo Catalana Occidente Sa (GCO SM)</a> after 94.27% acceptance, completing the take-private process and removing any remaining deal risk.</li>
<li>With Spain’s 90/90 thresholds exceeded, a squeeze-out at €49.75 is now available, leaving minimal optionality for remaining minorities.</li>
<li>GCO trades just below terms as liquidity evaporates; the spread has closed and the trade moves to passive cash settlement mid-December.</li>
</ul>


Inocsa secures ~98% of Grupo Catalana Occidente Sa (GCO SM) after 94.27% acceptance, completing the take-private process and removing any remaining deal risk.
With Spain’s 90/90 thresholds exceeded, a squeeze-out at €49.75 is now available, leaving minimal optionality for remaining minorities.
GCO trades just below terms as liquidity evaporates; the spread has closed and the trade moves to passive cash settlement mid-December.


Inocsa Secures 98% of Catalana Occidente; Squeeze-Out Now in Play

Vivendi SE provides culture, entertainment, media, and communication services. The Company specializes in audiovisual and cinema, communications, magazines, gaming, live performance, and distribution platform activities. Vivendi serves customers worldwide.

<ul>
<li>Holdco dispersion persists: GBL simplifies and strengthens liquidity yet trades at –30.5%; Industrivärden and Investor remain unusually tight; Heineken Holding stable in its post-Covid range.</li>
<li>Porsche SE’s ~30% discount aligns with “no-liability” scenarios, while Rio Tinto’s DLC premium stays structurally elevated, leaving convergence trades dependent on governance catalysts rather than statistical mean reversion.</li>
<li>Vivendi’s discount widened to 42% on legal timing noise; AMF logic unchanged. Optionality rebuilt, making Vivendi the most asymmetric setup in the current holdco universe.</li>
</ul>


Holdco dispersion persists: GBL simplifies and strengthens liquidity yet trades at –30.5%; Industrivärden and Investor remain unusually tight; Heineken Holding stable in its post-Covid range.
Porsche SE’s ~30% discount aligns with “no-liability” scenarios, while Rio Tinto’s DLC premium stays structurally elevated, leaving convergence trades dependent on governance catalysts rather than statistical mean reversion.
Vivendi’s discount widened to 42% on legal timing noise; AMF logic unchanged. Optionality rebuilt, making Vivendi the most asymmetric setup in the current holdco universe.


Selected European HoldCos and DLC: November 2025 Report

European event-driven, risk-arb & special-sits

Europe Event-Driven
European event-driven, risk-arb & special-sits

Anglo Teck — Votes Landed, Focus Turns to ICA

Approvals secured; attention turns to Canada’s review and competition clearances. We keep a hedged stance and watch regulatory pacing and portfolio...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Worthington Steel - Kloeckner: Strategic Optionality Emerges as Worthington’s Due Diligence Advances

Worthington’s due diligence creates real takeout optionality. Kloeckner’s standalone value is ~€7.05; synergies lift a bid to €8.25–9.78....

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Weekly Update (MICC, IDT, UNTC)

Unilever (UL) will spin-off the Magnum Ice Cream Company (MICC) next week. Regular way trading is expected to begin on December 8, 2025.

Richard Howe

Inocsa Secures 98% of Catalana Occidente; Squeeze-Out Now in Play

Inocsa now controls ~98% of Catalana Occidente after a 94% acceptance rate, enabling a squeeze-out at €49.75. Delisting is imminent and the...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Selected European HoldCos and DLC: November 2025 Report

Holdco discounts diverged in November: GBL strengthens its case, Investor stays rich, Porsche SE sits at structural levels, Vivendi’s setback...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar