European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

Mediobanca S.p.A. is an investment bank in Italy, offering advisory services to domestic and international customers, and providing finance in its various forms from more traditional bank credit to the most sophisticated solutions available on capital markets. Banking activities on the retail side include consumer credit and mortgages offered alongside deposit gathering and wealth management.

<ul>
<li>CONSOB has approved the offer documentation, allowing the deal to proceed. The acceptance period runs from 14 July to 8 September, marking a key milestone in regulatory clearance.</li>
<li>Mediobanca trades at a premium to the implied offer price, indicating market skepticism and expectations of deal failure or an improved bid from BMPS to entice shareholder support.</li>
<li>The persistent negative spread—averaging −6% since January—reflects structural resistance, financial dilution, and shareholder opposition, undermining confidence in the transaction’s likelihood of completion.</li>
</ul>


CONSOB has approved the offer documentation, allowing the deal to proceed. The acceptance period runs from 14 July to 8 September, marking a key milestone in regulatory clearance.
Mediobanca trades at a premium to the implied offer price, indicating market skepticism and expectations of deal failure or an improved bid from BMPS to entice shareholder support.
The persistent negative spread—averaging −6% since January—reflects structural resistance, financial dilution, and shareholder opposition, undermining confidence in the transaction’s likelihood of completion.


Spectris plc manufactures, designs and markets products for the electronic control and process instrumentation sectors.  The Company's products include digital indication and control products, industrial computer circuit boards, semiconductor related devices, infrared equipment for temperature measurement, flying controls, gas analysis products, and analytical x-ray systems.

<ul>
<li>KKR’s £40/share offer is now board-recommended, displacing Advent’s prior bid; Spectris shares trade near offer price with minimal spread.</li>
<li>With full board support and limited regulatory risk, the market implies &gt;99% deal certainty.</li>
<li>Advent must act swiftly or concede defeat; further bidding appears unlikely but not impossible.</li>
</ul>


KKR’s £40/share offer is now board-recommended, displacing Advent’s prior bid; Spectris shares trade near offer price with minimal spread.
With full board support and limited regulatory risk, the market implies &gt;99% deal certainty.
Advent must act swiftly or concede defeat; further bidding appears unlikely but not impossible.


Spectris Update: KKR’s Recommended Counter-Offer Displaces Advent

Banco de Sabadell SA attracts deposits and offers commercial banking services. The Bank offers mortgage, consumer, student, and building improvement loans, private banking services, and insurance, and sponsors Visa credit cards.  The Bank operates branches throughout Spain, elsewhere in Europe, the Caribbean, the Americas, and Asia.

<ul>
<li>Sabadell's TSB sale unlocks €3.4B in value and supports a €0.50/share special dividend, reducing appeal of BBVA’s current hostile bid.</li>
<li>BBVA maintains its offer despite regulatory constraints and limited synergy visibility for 3–5 years.</li>
<li>Options activity and share price suggest market expects either a bid bump or re-rating, with dividend yield softening downside.</li>
</ul>


Sabadell's TSB sale unlocks €3.4B in value and supports a €0.50/share special dividend, reducing appeal of BBVA’s current hostile bid.
BBVA maintains its offer despite regulatory constraints and limited synergy visibility for 3–5 years.
Options activity and share price suggest market expects either a bid bump or re-rating, with dividend yield softening downside.


BBVA/Sabadell Update: TSB Sale Shifts Dynamics, Adds Dividend Optionality

Direct Line Insurance Group Pl / Event-Driven

Direct Line Insurance Group PLC provides personal and commercial insurance and services. The Company offers a range of insurance products including automobile, home, travel, pet, property, and accident insurance. Direct Line Insurance serves private customers and business clients online and by phone throughout the United Kingdom, Germany, and Italy.

<ul>
<li>Direct Line–Aviva deal has cleared CMA and court hurdles; only procedural steps remain.</li>
<li>Implied value is 312.19p vs. 306.6p close — a 1.82% spread with 7-day horizon.</li>
<li>I recommend long arbitrage exposure below 307p. This is a textbook risk arb trade: liquid, near-fully de-risked, and short-dated.</li>
</ul>


Direct Line–Aviva deal has cleared CMA and court hurdles; only procedural steps remain.
Implied value is 312.19p vs. 306.6p close — a 1.82% spread with 7-day horizon.
I recommend long arbitrage exposure below 307p. This is a textbook risk arb trade: liquid, near-fully de-risked, and short-dated.


Last Premium Collected: DLG’s Short-Dated Arbitrage Opportunity

Rio Tinto plc is an international mining company. The Company has interests in mining for aluminum, borax, coal, copper, gold, iron ore, lead, silver, tin, uranium, zinc, titanium dioxide feedstock, diamonds, talc and zircon. Dually-listed company with RIO AU.

<ul>
<li>Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos and DLC mainly tightened during June. Coverage of CF Alba is discontinued following delisting. Discounts (30 June): GBL, 36% (vs. 37.9% on 30 May); </li>
<li>Heineken Holding, 14% (vs. 12.5%); Industrivärden C, 10% (vs. 9.6%); Investor B, 12.1% (vs. 9.6%); Porsche Automobile Holding, 28% (vs. 29.5%); Rio DLC 20.9% (vs. 22.2%); Vivendi 44.9% (vs. 47.1%). </li>
<li>What seems interesting (unchanged views): Heineken Holding, vs. Heineken, Porsche SE vs. listed assets and Rio DLC (long RIO LN/short RIO AU).</li>
</ul>


Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos and DLC mainly tightened during June. Coverage of CF Alba is discontinued following delisting. Discounts (30 June): GBL, 36% (vs. 37.9% on 30 May); 
Heineken Holding, 14% (vs. 12.5%); Industrivärden C, 10% (vs. 9.6%); Investor B, 12.1% (vs. 9.6%); Porsche Automobile Holding, 28% (vs. 29.5%); Rio DLC 20.9% (vs. 22.2%); Vivendi 44.9% (vs. 47.1%). 
What seems interesting (unchanged views): Heineken Holding, vs. Heineken, Porsche SE vs. listed assets and Rio DLC (long RIO LN/short RIO AU).


Selected European HoldCos and DLC: June 2025 Report

European event-driven, risk-arb & special-sits

Europe Event-Driven
European event-driven, risk-arb & special-sits

BMPS-Mediobanca: Spread Says No

BMPS’s bid for Mediobanca trades at a persistent negative spread. Despite regulatory approval, market doubts remain high amid governance risks,...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Spectris Update: KKR’s Recommended Counter-Offer Displaces Advent

KKR wins board backing for its £40/share bid for Spectris, outbidding Advent. With near-zero spread and high certainty, the market sees closure...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

BBVA/Sabadell Update: TSB Sale Shifts Dynamics, Adds Dividend Optionality

TSB sale reshapes Sabadell’s story: BBVA’s bid looks stale, €0.50 dividend looms, and options imply upside. Long SAB / Short BBVA remains...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Last Premium Collected: DLG’s Short-Dated Arbitrage Opportunity

Direct Line–Aviva merger is procedurally de-risked. 1.82% gross spread, 131.5% annualised IRR over 7 days. Liquid, short-dated UK scheme — ideal...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Selected European HoldCos and DLC: June 2025 Report

Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos and DLC mainly tightened during June. What seems interesting (unchanged views): Heineken Holding, Porsche SE...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar