Founder at Stock Spin-off Investing, Stock Spin-Off Investing

Richard Howe

Founder at Stock Spin-off Investing

Stock Spin-Off Investing

Generate attractive returns by taking advantage of inefficiencies in the stock spin-off market.

Stock Spin-offs

Event-Driven

<ul><li>I’m closing out my LEN/MRP odd lot trade recommendation and will be selling my MRP shares.</li><li>The total return if you took advantage of the odd lot provision was +1.9% / + $235 less than the expected return of +6.4% / $772.</li><li>The driver of the underperformance? MRP sold off in mi- November given market weakness and hasn’t fully recovered.</li></ul>

I’m closing out my LEN/MRP odd lot trade recommendation and will be selling my MRP shares.The total return if you took advantage of the odd lot provision was +1.9% / + $235 less than the expected return of +6.4% / $772.The driver of the underperformance? MRP sold off in mi- November given market weakness and hasn’t fully recovered.

Enviri Corporation is an environmental solutions company. The Company offers solutions for complex environmental issues and serves large industries, including steel, railways, and energy. Enviri provides processing, treatment, disposal, and recycling solutions for a wide range of complex, highly recurring waste streams such as hazardous and non-hazardous waste.

<ul><li>One market sector that hasn’t been lifted by the AI narrative is the oil and gas industry.</li><li>Enviri Corporation (NVRI) announced on November 21, 2025, that it had reached a definitive agreement to sell its Clean Earth specialty-waste business to Veolia for $3 billion while simultaneously preparing to spin off its remaining Harsco Environmental and Harsco Rail divisions into a new standalone public company called New Enviri.</li><li>NVRI reacted positively to the news.<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"></figure></li></ul>

One market sector that hasn’t been lifted by the AI narrative is the oil and gas industry.Enviri Corporation (NVRI) announced on November 21, 2025, that it had reached a definitive agreement to sell its Clean Earth specialty-waste business to Veolia for $3 billion while simultaneously preparing to spin off its remaining Harsco Environmental and Harsco Rail divisions into a new standalone public company called New Enviri.NVRI reacted positively to the news.

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Wynn Resorts, Limited owns and operates luxury hotels and destination casino resorts in Las Vegas, Nevada, Macau, and China. The Company offers amenities such as guest rooms and suites, restaurants, golf course, and an on-site luxury automotive dealership.

<ul>
<li>I see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wynn-resorts-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:606:1" rel="noopener">Wynn Resorts (WYNN US)</a> trading around all-time highs - both the implied stub (net of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wynn-macau-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:473:1" rel="noopener">Wynn Macau Ltd (1128 HK)</a>) and on a simple ratio (WYNN/1280). </li>
<li>Preceding my comments on Wynn are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.</li>
<li>These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.</li>
</ul>


I see Wynn Resorts (WYNN US) trading around all-time highs - both the implied stub (net of Wynn Macau Ltd (1128 HK)) and on a simple ratio (WYNN/1280). 
Preceding my comments on Wynn are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.


StubWorld: Wynn Resorts (WYNN US) Ekes Out New Highs

European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Axalta Coating Systems Ltd. manufactures, markets and distributes coatings systems. The Company offers products and services which includes paint, color matching tools, application technologies, and customer  training and business management systems. Axalta Coating Systems serves automotive, transportation,  general industrial, and architectural and decorative sectors.

<ul>
<li>The Akzo–Axalta merger provides strong industrial logic and substantial synergies, but value allocation favours Akzo via its large dividend and greater synergy share, driving emerging Axalta shareholder resistance.</li>
<li>Axalta trades above adjusted deal value, implying a 2–3% bump. Artisan and Shapiro opposition increases pressure to improve terms, but current pricing already embeds bump expectations, making arbitrage unattractive.</li>
<li>At €26.21, expected returns are negative across scenarios without a larger, near-certain bump. Break risk dominates, making the trade unattractive. Recommendation: avoid initiating AXTA-long/AKZO-short positions until spread materially widens.</li>
</ul>


The Akzo–Axalta merger provides strong industrial logic and substantial synergies, but value allocation favours Akzo via its large dividend and greater synergy share, driving emerging Axalta shareholder resistance.
Axalta trades above adjusted deal value, implying a 2–3% bump. Artisan and Shapiro opposition increases pressure to improve terms, but current pricing already embeds bump expectations, making arbitrage unattractive.
At €26.21, expected returns are negative across scenarios without a larger, near-certain bump. Break risk dominates, making the trade unattractive. Recommendation: avoid initiating AXTA-long/AKZO-short positions until spread materially widens.


Axalta Through Deal Value: Market Pricing a Bump, Not a Spread

Topgolf Callaway Brands Corp. provides golf equipment. The Company offers balls, gear, customs, fittings, and apparels. Topgolf Callaway Brands serves customers worldwide.

<ul><li>MODG currently trades at a $1.9BN market cap and a $5.4BN enterprise value, but that capital structure is about to materially change.</li><li>With the announced sale of 60% of Topgolf to private equity, MODG will no longer consolidate Topgolf’s heavy lease liabilities—including operating leases, financing leases, and deemed landlord financing obligations—meaning its reported debt and enterprise value will drop significantly.</li><li>Topgolf accounts for the vast majority of these liabilities, while the core Callaway and Active Lifestyle businesses primarily lease retail stores and distribution centers on a much smaller scale.</li></ul>

MODG currently trades at a $1.9BN market cap and a $5.4BN enterprise value, but that capital structure is about to materially change.With the announced sale of 60% of Topgolf to private equity, MODG will no longer consolidate Topgolf’s heavy lease liabilities—including operating leases, financing leases, and deemed landlord financing obligations—meaning its reported debt and enterprise value will drop significantly.Topgolf accounts for the vast majority of these liabilities, while the core Callaway and Active Lifestyle businesses primarily lease retail stores and distribution centers on a much smaller scale.

MODG: TopGolf Sale Will Meaningfully Improve Balance Sheet

US Event-Driven
US event-driven, risk-arb & special-sits

Sell Millrose Properties

I’m closing out my LEN/MRP odd lot trade recommendation and will be selling my MRP shares. The total return if you took advantage of the odd lot...

Richard Howe

Weekly Update (NVRI, MRP, IAC)

One market sector that hasn’t been lifted by the AI narrative is the oil and gas industry. Enviri Corporation (NVRI) announced on November 21,...

Richard Howe

StubWorld: Wynn Resorts (WYNN US) Ekes Out New Highs

Consensus indicate higher forward EBITDA growth for Wynn Resorts' stub ops vs. Wynn Macau. Wynn Macau's growth is below Macau peers. Stay in "set...

David Blennerhassett

Axalta Through Deal Value: Market Pricing a Bump, Not a Spread

Akzo–Axalta combines strong industrial logic with sizable synergies, but value skews to Akzo. Axalta trades above deal terms, implying a bump....

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

MODG: TopGolf Sale Will Meaningfully Improve Balance Sheet

MODG currently trades at a $1.9BN market cap and a $5.4BN enterprise value, but that capital structure is about to materially change.

Richard Howe