Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven), MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven)

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

SMIC (Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp) / Equity Derivatives

Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation operates as a semiconductor foundry. The Company provides integrated circuit foundry and technology services including the testing, development, design, manufacturing, packaging, and sale of integrated circuits. Semiconductor Manufacturing International offers its products and services around the world.

SMIC (Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp) (981 HK)

SMIC (Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp)

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/semiconductor-manufacturing-international-corporation-smic-7e5581f6-e966-43f0-905c-9ec6e8675c16" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14231:1" rel="noopener">SMIC (981 HK)</a> is down 41.6% from its 52-week high due to heavy capex, but presents solid fundamentals and bullish consensus targets (HKD 108.57) despite lingering export control headwinds.</li>
<li>The recent 5-week continuous decline has pushed prices into statistical outlier territory, triggering a very high probability of a mean-reversion bottom within 1–2 weeks, according to our model.</li>
<li>Solid index backing and upcoming Q3 earnings (Oct 31) support a high-conviction LONG asymmetric risk entry targeting a medium-term bounce to HKD 70–80 (a conservative target versus consensus).</li>
</ul>



SMIC (981 HK) is down 41.6% from its 52-week high due to heavy capex, but presents solid fundamentals and bullish consensus targets (HKD 108.57) despite lingering export control headwinds.
The recent 5-week continuous decline has pushed prices into statistical outlier territory, triggering a very high probability of a mean-reversion bottom within 1–2 weeks, according to our model.
Solid index backing and upcoming Q3 earnings (Oct 31) support a high-conviction LONG asymmetric risk entry targeting a medium-term bounce to HKD 70–80 (a conservative target versus consensus).


SMIC (981 HK): Tactical Outlook Ahead of Oct 31 Earnings

C. Uyemura & Co., Ltd. manufactures and sells plating chemicals.  The Company also manufactures plating machinery.  C. Uyemura markets its products in North America and Asia.

<ul>
<li>JPX's October 7 review adds 35 names and phases out 683 over eight quarterly steps, creating dated passive buying and selling in several AI and semiconductor stocks.</li>
<li>Ferrotec, santec, Seikoh Giken and C.Uyemura get passive buying at the October 29 close; Samco, Tazmo, Torex Semiconductor and Fixstars face eight quarterly passive selling dates.</li>
<li>The October 2027 re-evaluation is an escape hatch: deleted names that regain liquidity stop being cut, making buybacks, cross-shareholding unwinds and float will increase the catalysts to watch.</li>
</ul>


JPX's October 7 review adds 35 names and phases out 683 over eight quarterly steps, creating dated passive buying and selling in several AI and semiconductor stocks.
Ferrotec, santec, Seikoh Giken and C.Uyemura get passive buying at the October 29 close; Samco, Tazmo, Torex Semiconductor and Fixstars face eight quarterly passive selling dates.
The October 2027 re-evaluation is an escape hatch: deleted names that regain liquidity stop being cut, making buybacks, cross-shareholding unwinds and float will increase the catalysts to watch.


Japan AI Small Caps: Who Topix Funds Must Buy/Sell Following the Oct 30 Index Cull

SoftBank Group Corp. provides telecommunication services. The Company also operates ADSL (Asymmetric Digital Subscriber Line) and fiber optic high-speed Internet connection, e-Commerce businesses, and Internet based advertising and auction businesses.

<ul>
<li>
Funding done, stock's shares still falling – what is the market pricing?<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/softbank-group-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:315:1" rel="noopener">Softbank </a>has invested $64.6bn for about 13% of OpenAI, and the $40bn bridge loan has been repaid and cancelled.</li>
<li>
What is left is a mark, not a cash call. The stake is both equity upside + collateral for a $10bn margin loan priced at SOFR plus 425 basis points.</li>
<li>
10 November Earnings: results for the six months to 30 September will show whether that mark holds.</li>
</ul>



Funding done, stock's shares still falling – what is the market pricing?Softbank has invested $64.6bn for about 13% of OpenAI, and the $40bn bridge loan has been repaid and cancelled.

What is left is a mark, not a cash call. The stake is both equity upside + collateral for a $10bn margin loan priced at SOFR plus 425 basis points.

10 November Earnings: results for the six months to 30 September will show whether that mark holds.


How SoftBank (9984 JP) Became a Proxy to Trade OpenAI, One Headline at a Time...

Market Intelligence, ORTEX

ORTEX Market Intel

Market Intelligence

Global Financial Data and Analytics Platform

ORTEX

ORTEX is a global financial data and analytics platform providing real-time securities lending and short interest data, index rebalance data, holdings and insider transactions, trading signals, corporate actions and news,  stock machine learning and factor scores and other analytics. The majority of the data are downloadable and accessible through APIs.

Cabot Corporation has businesses in chemicals, performance materials, and specialty fluids.  The Company manufactures and sells carbon black, fumed silica, plastics, ink jet colorants, tantalum, niobium, and germanium.  Cabot's specialty fluids business produces and markets cesium formate as a drilling and completion fluid for use in oil and gas well operations.

<ul><li>Sentiment read: Options flow split sharply this week.</li><li>Momentum and ETF names drew aggressive call buying, pushing put-call ratios to historic lows.</li><li>At the same time, traders loaded up on puts ahead of several October and November earnings dates, a pattern that dominated the high-severity alerts.</li></ul>

Sentiment read: Options flow split sharply this week.Momentum and ETF names drew aggressive call buying, pushing put-call ratios to historic lows.At the same time, traders loaded up on puts ahead of several October and November earnings dates, a pattern that dominated the high-severity alerts.

Options Weekly: Bears Circle Earnings Names as Call Fever Grips Momentum Stocks

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist, Clifton Derivatives

John Ley

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist

Clifton Derivatives

Independent derivative and volatility research firm focusing on events/catalysts, earnings, relative value and cross asset volatility strategies.

The Nikkei-225 Stock Average is a price-weighted average of 225 top-rated Japanese companies listed in the First Section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange. The Nikkei Stock Average was first published on May 16, 1949, where the average price was ¥176.21 with a divisor of 225. 

<ul>
<li>The widening gap between Japanese single stock and index implied volatility appears concentrated rather than broadly distributed across the market.</li>
<li>Information Technology and Industrials account for much of the concentration among stocks trading at unusually wide implied vol spreads.</li>
<li>A number of stocks have gone from merely over-extended to dislocated, potentially pointing to a regime change in their volatility relationship against the Nikkei.</li>
</ul>


The widening gap between Japanese single stock and index implied volatility appears concentrated rather than broadly distributed across the market.
Information Technology and Industrials account for much of the concentration among stocks trading at unusually wide implied vol spreads.
A number of stocks have gone from merely over-extended to dislocated, potentially pointing to a regime change in their volatility relationship against the Nikkei.


Japanese Single Stock Implied Volatility: The Growing Gap Between Stocks and the Nikkei

Equity Derivatives (EQD) and Vol-Based Insights

Equity Derivatives
Equity Derivatives (EQD) and Vol-Based Insights

SMIC (981 HK): Tactical Outlook Ahead of Oct 31 Earnings

SMIC (981 HK) Tactical Idea: Stock is in extreme oversold territory per our model (high reversal probability). Solid Q2 fundamentals support a high...

Nico Rosti

Japan AI Small Caps: Who Topix Funds Must Buy/Sell Following the Oct 30 Index Cull

Topix funds must buy 6 and sell 15 Japanese AI/semiconductor small caps after the Oct 30 index cull. Names and flow sizes, plus notes on the Oct...

Nico Rosti

How SoftBank (9984 JP) Became a Proxy to Trade OpenAI, One Headline at a Time...

OpenAI has no share price, so investors now trade SoftBank (9984 JP) as a proxy, using OpenAI headlines. The stock fell 13.4% in six sessions since...

Nico Rosti

Options Weekly: Bears Circle Earnings Names as Call Fever Grips Momentum Stocks

Sentiment read: Options flow split sharply this week. Momentum and ETF names drew aggressive call buying, pushing put-call ratios to historic...

ORTEX Market Intel

Japanese Single Stock Implied Volatility: The Growing Gap Between Stocks and the Nikkei

Japan’s volatility dislocation is not broad-based, with many of the most stretched single stock relationships clustered around names exposed to the...

John Ley