Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Chief Economist

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>EA inflation rose by 16bp to 3.19% in May, only 2bps above our forecast, but less painful than the consensus expected in recent weeks. National releases may have cut calls.</li>
<li>Surprises were broadly small, with more downside ones averaging 0.1pp, balanced by bigger country strength. Upside was in services while downside was in energy.</li>
<li>The ECB is set to demonstrate its commitment to the target with an 11 June hike. This rise provides no excuse not to, but demand destruction urges restraint beyond that.</li>
</ul>


EA inflation rose by 16bp to 3.19% in May, only 2bps above our forecast, but less painful than the consensus expected in recent weeks. National releases may have cut calls.
Surprises were broadly small, with more downside ones averaging 0.1pp, balanced by bigger country strength. Upside was in services while downside was in energy.
The ECB is set to demonstrate its commitment to the target with an 11 June hike. This rise provides no excuse not to, but demand destruction urges restraint beyond that.


Equity/Index & Cross Asset Volatility Specialist, Cameron Design

Jay Cameron

Equity/Index & Cross Asset Volatility Specialist

Cameron Design

We specialize in financial products and volatility. Our strategies balance speed, data, and risk control to capture opportunities across global markets. Our research leverages AI and data analytics to continuously refine our algorithms and adapt to evolving market dynamics.

Commodities

Gold is a chemical element with the symbol Au (from Latin: aurum) and the atomic number 79. In its purest form, it is a bright, slightly reddish yellow, dense, soft, malleable and ductile metal. Chemically, gold is a transition metal and a group 11 element. It is one of the least reactive chemical elements, and is solid under standard conditions. The metal therefore occurs often in free elemental (native) form, as nuggets or grains, in rocks, in veins and in alluvial deposits. It occurs in a solid solution series with the native element silver (as electrum) and also naturally alloyed with copper and palladium. Less commonly, it occurs in minerals as gold compounds, often with tellurium (gold tellurides).

<ul>
<li>The recent breakdown of two-year support for SPDR Gold Shares ETF is driven by the Strait of Hormuz shutdown, escalating oil prices, and resultant global inflation.</li>
<li>Retail consumer interest in precious metals has dropped, confirmed by the lowest US Consumer Sentiment Index reading since 1952, showing widespread financial worry.</li>
<li>Weak summer seasonality in gold futures, particularly in June and July, presents a current opportunity to prepare for price movement later this year.</li>
</ul>


The recent breakdown of two-year support for SPDR Gold Shares ETF is driven by the Strait of Hormuz shutdown, escalating oil prices, and resultant global inflation.
Retail consumer interest in precious metals has dropped, confirmed by the lowest US Consumer Sentiment Index reading since 1952, showing widespread financial worry.
Weak summer seasonality in gold futures, particularly in June and July, presents a current opportunity to prepare for price movement later this year.


Gold: SPDR Gold K-Score Divergence and JUN/JUL Trading Strategy Amidst the Hormuz Inflation Shock

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CardinalStone

CardinalStone

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

CardinalStone is an independent, multi-asset investment management firm offering an assortment of financial services to a diverse institutional, high net worth and retail clientele base. The company began operations in June 2008 and its business is conducted across six divisions – Investment Banking, Asset Management, Securities Trading, Trust Services, Registrar Services and Financing. Headquartered in Lagos with offices in Abuja, Nigeria, the firm and its licensed subsidiaries diligently works with its clients to create bespoke solutions for their needs.

<ul><li>Inflation According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), Nigeria's headline inflation printed at 15.69% YoY in April (vs 15.38% in March), reflecting sustained pressures in the food basket (16.06% YoY vs 14.31% YoY in March).</li><li>Interest rate decision Emerging risks not anticipated at the beginning of the year are increasingly shaping Nigeria's macroeconomic environment, particularly the return of inflationary pressures.</li><li>Most importantly, the ongoing Middle East war has driven global crude oil prices above US$100/bbl, with the effects finally filtering through to the domestic economy.</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Inflation According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), Nigeria's headline inflation printed at 15.69% YoY in April (vs 15.38% in March), reflecting sustained pressures in the food basket (16.06% YoY vs 14.31% YoY in March).Interest rate decision Emerging risks not anticipated at the beginning of the year are increasingly shaping Nigeria's macroeconomic environment, particularly the return of inflationary pressures.Most importantly, the ongoing Middle East war has driven global crude oil prices above US$100/bbl, with the effects finally filtering through to the domestic economy.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Inflation dynamics likely to keep the MPC cautious 

Global Economist, DeSaque Macro Research

Said Desaque

Global Economist

Delivering Global Macro Investment Insights

DeSaque Macro Research

DeSaque Macro Research Limited was formed by Said DeSaque in April 2012 with the view to delivering global macro investment insights aimed at providing new ideas to clients.

Said DeSaque has over 26 years of experience working as a professional economist in financial services. Prior to establishing DeSaque Macro Research, Said held positions as Senior Economist at Robert W Baird and William Blair. He began his career as a graduate at PaineWebber in 1986, where he eventually became Head of the London Economics Department.

Said takes a very keen interest in international relations, along with their implications for economic development. His research interests include the economic transformation of China and its implications for global capital markets, particularly in the United States. He is a member of Chatham House in London.

The US economy and capital markets have historically been Said’s main focus of attention. He frequently presents his views to institutional investors in diverse geographic locations. In recent years, Said has also been carefully monitoring economic developments in Asia, particularly China and Japan.

<ul>
<li>The Fed's preferred core inflation gauge has accelerated since November in contrast to the equivalent consumer price index (CPI) measure based on three-month annualised and twelve-month core changes.</li>
<li>Accelerating price increases for information processing equipment and software related to the AI infrastructure buildout is partly responsible for the core PCE deflator acceleration versus the CPI.</li>
<li>Elevated readings for the core PCE deflator make Fed policy rate reductions difficult to justify in the current environment. Any rate reduction would probably require demand destruction and higher unemployment. </li>
</ul>


The Fed's preferred core inflation gauge has accelerated since November in contrast to the equivalent consumer price index (CPI) measure based on three-month annualised and twelve-month core changes.
Accelerating price increases for information processing equipment and software related to the AI infrastructure buildout is partly responsible for the core PCE deflator acceleration versus the CPI.
Elevated readings for the core PCE deflator make Fed policy rate reductions difficult to justify in the current environment. Any rate reduction would probably require demand destruction and higher unemployment. 


Ominous Core Inflation Developments in the Fed's Preferred Measure

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Topline Securities

Topline Securities

Topline Securities is one of the fastest growing brokerage houses in Pakistan. It has strong equity brokerage, economic / equity research, mutual fund distribution, commodity trading and corporate finance & advisory functions. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>Pakistan’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) for May 2026 is expected to clock in at 11.0-11.50% YoY vs. 10.89% YoY in Apr 2026 and 3.46% in May 2025. This YoY inflation will record the highest monthly inflation in 23 months.</li><li>On a MoM basis, inflation for May 2026 is projected at +0.07%, primarily driven by a 1.2% MoM increase in the food segment.</li><li>Food inflation is expected to clock in at 1.2% MoM, primarily driven by increase in price of wheat flour (+9.47%), wheat (+5.52%), and potatoes (+5.24%), partially offset by decline in tomato (~28%) and onion (~13%) prices.</li></ul>

Pakistan’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) for May 2026 is expected to clock in at 11.0-11.50% YoY vs. 10.89% YoY in Apr 2026 and 3.46% in May 2025. This YoY inflation will record the highest monthly inflation in 23 months.On a MoM basis, inflation for May 2026 is projected at +0.07%, primarily driven by a 1.2% MoM increase in the food segment.Food inflation is expected to clock in at 1.2% MoM, primarily driven by increase in price of wheat flour (+9.47%), wheat (+5.52%), and potatoes (+5.24%), partially offset by decline in tomato (~28%) and onion (~13%) prices.

Pakistan Economy - Inflation to Clock in at 11.0-11.5% in May 2026; Highest in 23 Months; Led by a Rise in Food Inflation

Inflation
When things get dearer

EA Inflation Lifts ECB Rates

EA inflation rose to 3.19% in May, as expected, but less severe than the consensus recently feared. Service prices surprised higher, reversing...

Phil Rush

Gold: SPDR Gold K-Score Divergence and JUN/JUL Trading Strategy Amidst the Hormuz Inflation Shock

Inflation fears due to the Strait of Hormuz shutdown and rising oil prices have led to a breakdown in gold ETF momentum support, yet as consumers...

Jay Cameron

Inflation dynamics likely to keep the MPC cautious

Inflation According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), Nigeria's headline inflation printed at 15.69% YoY in April (vs 15.38% in March),...

CardinalStone

Ominous Core Inflation Developments in the Fed's Preferred Measure

Core US inflation trends have displayed different signals depending on the measure. The core PCE deflator has accelerated since Novembers to...

DeSaque Macro Research

Pakistan Economy - Inflation to Clock in at 11.0-11.5% in May 2026; Highest in 23 Months; Led by a Rise in Food Inflation

Pakistan’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) for May 2026 is expected to clock in at 11.0-11.50% YoY vs. 10.89% YoY in Apr 2026 and 3.46% in May 2025....

Topline Securities

EA Inflation Lifts ECB Rates

EA inflation rose to 3.19% in May, as expected, but less severe than the consensus recently feared. Service prices surprised higher, reversing...

Phil Rush

Gold: SPDR Gold K-Score Divergence and JUN/JUL Trading Strategy Amidst the Hormuz Inflation Shock

​Inflation fears due to the Strait of Hormuz shutdown and rising oil prices have led to a breakdown in gold ETF momentum support, yet as consumers...

Jay Cameron

Inflation dynamics likely to keep the MPC cautious

Inflation According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), Nigeria's headline inflation printed at 15.69% YoY in April (vs 15.38% in March),...

CardinalStone

Ominous Core Inflation Developments in the Fed's Preferred Measure

Core US inflation trends have displayed different signals depending on the measure. The core PCE deflator has accelerated since Novembers to...

DeSaque Macro Research

Pakistan Economy - Inflation to Clock in at 11.0-11.5% in May 2026; Highest in 23 Months; Led by a Rise in Food Inflation

Pakistan’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) for May 2026 is expected to clock in at 11.0-11.50% YoY vs. 10.89% YoY in Apr 2026 and 3.46% in May 2025....

Topline Securities

Inflation fears due to the Strait of Hormuz shutdown and rising oil prices have led to a breakdown in gold ETF momentum support, yet as consumers...