Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Welcome to our weekly EM editorial, where we touch upon the most tradeable topics in liquid EM markets and how they interact with main themes in G10 markets.</li>
<li>The overwhelming story centers around the position squaring party that has been triggered by the reversal of the carry trade in USDJPY.</li>
<li>The real rate spread is no longer trending upwards, leaving the fair value lower than 150 now that the spec long positioning in USD versus JPY is getting squeezed.</li>
</ul>


Welcome to our weekly EM editorial, where we touch upon the most tradeable topics in liquid EM markets and how they interact with main themes in G10 markets.
The overwhelming story centers around the position squaring party that has been triggered by the reversal of the carry trade in USDJPY.
The real rate spread is no longer trending upwards, leaving the fair value lower than 150 now that the spec long positioning in USD versus JPY is getting squeezed.


EM Watch: Knock-outing the EM darlings, while inflation is returning in EM space

Covering the Mexican Economy, Actinver Research

Actinver

Covering the Mexican Economy

Actinver Research

Actinver is a mexican leading financial group, that generates well being for individuals and companies through advisory services that provides investment management to maintain and grow their wealth.

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>The inflation rate for the first half of July stood at 0.71%, driven by increases in the prices of agricultural and energy products.</li>
<li>However, core inflation continued its downward trend in annual terms, approaching 4.0%.</li>
<li>This reinforces the expectation that the Board of Governors of Banxico will opt for a 25 basis points cut in the reference rate, in a decision that we anticipate will be divided.</li>
</ul>


The inflation rate for the first half of July stood at 0.71%, driven by increases in the prices of agricultural and energy products.
However, core inflation continued its downward trend in annual terms, approaching 4.0%.
This reinforces the expectation that the Board of Governors of Banxico will opt for a 25 basis points cut in the reference rate, in a decision that we anticipate will be divided.


Actinver - Macro Daily: Inflation: 1h-Jul

Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

<ul>
<li>Headline CPI rose 1.33%MoM in Jun'24, because of a 3.17%MoM spike in food CPI. Consequently, headline CPI rose 5.08%YoY, driven by food inflation of 9.36%YoY.</li>
<li>Although core inflation was at 3.1%YoY in May-Jun'24, India targets headline inflation, not core. Vegetable inflation (+29.3%YoY) remained the main culprit pushing up headline inflation. Fiscal solutions will take time.  </li>
<li>Headline CPI inflation is likely to stay close to 5%YoY in Jul-Sep'24 (vs earlier expectations of it abating below 4%YoY). The first rate cut is therefore unlikely before Dec'24. </li>
</ul>


Headline CPI rose 1.33%MoM in Jun'24, because of a 3.17%MoM spike in food CPI. Consequently, headline CPI rose 5.08%YoY, driven by food inflation of 9.36%YoY.
Although core inflation was at 3.1%YoY in May-Jun'24, India targets headline inflation, not core. Vegetable inflation (+29.3%YoY) remained the main culprit pushing up headline inflation. Fiscal solutions will take time.  
Headline CPI inflation is likely to stay close to 5%YoY in Jul-Sep'24 (vs earlier expectations of it abating below 4%YoY). The first rate cut is therefore unlikely before Dec'24. 


India: Inflation Setback in June Pushes Out Prospect of Rate Cuts to Later in the Year

Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Chief Economist

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

<ul><li>The final EA inflation print confirmed the flash at 2.52% in June, with services refusing to slow from 4.1%. Median inflation rates broadly rebounded, stabilising the 3mma.</li><li>Divergences between member states’ underlying pressures are balancing slightly above a target-consistent pace. The ECB is unlikely to be concerned about that.</li><li>Stability in the ECB’s medium-term forecast seems sufficient for it to cut again in September. Tight labour markets may yet renew pressures and pause cuts later.</li></ul><p></p>

The final EA inflation print confirmed the flash at 2.52% in June, with services refusing to slow from 4.1%. Median inflation rates broadly rebounded, stabilising the 3mma.Divergences between member states’ underlying pressures are balancing slightly above a target-consistent pace. The ECB is unlikely to be concerned about that.Stability in the ECB’s medium-term forecast seems sufficient for it to cut again in September. Tight labour markets may yet renew pressures and pause cuts later.

<ul><li>Morning from Europe! Remember that we release our “Week at a glance” publication instead of the “Something for your Espresso” every Monday before lunch-time.</li><li>Our aim is to digest the release calendar in an actionable way and assess the risk/reward around the macro themes in the context of the economic release calendar.</li><li>This week, we will focus on the US consumer (Retail Sales), UK inflation (CPI) and the EUR rates (ECB meeting).</li></ul>

Morning from Europe! Remember that we release our “Week at a glance” publication instead of the “Something for your Espresso” every Monday before lunch-time.Our aim is to digest the release calendar in an actionable way and assess the risk/reward around the macro themes in the context of the economic release calendar.This week, we will focus on the US consumer (Retail Sales), UK inflation (CPI) and the EUR rates (ECB meeting).

The Week At A Glance: Another inflation shocker in the UK paired with a rebound in US retail sales?

Inflation
When things get dearer

EM Watch: Knock-outing the EM darlings, while inflation is returning in EM space

Welcome to our weekly EM editorial, where we touch upon the most tradeable topics in liquid EM markets and how they interact with main themes in...

Steno Research

Actinver - Macro Daily: Inflation: 1h-Jul

The inflation rate for the first half of July stood at 0.71%, driven by increases in the prices of agricultural and energy products.

Actinver

India: Inflation Setback in June Pushes Out Prospect of Rate Cuts to Later in the Year

Headline CPI rose to 5.08%YoY in Jun'24 due to food inflation (9.36%YoY). Despite the high base from Jul-Aug'23, CPI inflation will be near 5%YoY...

Prasenjit K. Basu

EA Inflation Stable Enough for the ECB

The final EA inflation print confirmed the flash at 2.52% in June, with services refusing to slow from 4.1%. Median inflation rates broadly...

Phil Rush

The Week At A Glance: Another inflation shocker in the UK paired with a rebound in US retail sales?

Morning from Europe! Remember that we release our “Week at a glance” publication instead of the “Something for your Espresso” every Monday before...

Steno Research

EM Watch: Knock-outing the EM darlings, while inflation is returning in EM space

Welcome to our weekly EM editorial, where we touch upon the most tradeable topics in liquid EM markets and how they interact with main themes in...

Steno Research

Actinver - Macro Daily: Inflation: 1h-Jul

The inflation rate for the first half of July stood at 0.71%, driven by increases in the prices of agricultural and energy products.

Actinver

India: Inflation Setback in June Pushes Out Prospect of Rate Cuts to Later in the Year

​Headline CPI rose to 5.08%YoY in Jun'24 due to food inflation (9.36%YoY). Despite the high base from Jul-Aug'23, CPI inflation will be near 5%YoY...

Prasenjit K. Basu

EA Inflation Stable Enough for the ECB

The final EA inflation print confirmed the flash at 2.52% in June, with services refusing to slow from 4.1%. Median inflation rates broadly...

Phil Rush

The Week At A Glance: Another inflation shocker in the UK paired with a rebound in US retail sales?

Morning from Europe! Remember that we release our “Week at a glance” publication instead of the “Something for your Espresso” every Monday before...

Steno Research

Headline CPI rose to 5.08%YoY in Jun'24 due to food inflation (9.36%YoY). Despite the high base from Jul-Aug'23, CPI inflation will be near 5%YoY...