Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Chief Economist

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>The final EA HICP inflation print confirmed the unsurprising stability at 2.4% in the April flash release. Energy price base effects will probably push it higher again in May.</li><li>Underlying inflationary pressures have continued falling, with most statistical measures under 3% y-o-y with monthly impulses at or slightly below the ECB’s target.</li><li>Like the consensus, we expect inflation to stay close to 2%. This outlook and subdued underlying pressures will likely ease the ECB’s decision to start cutting rates in June.</li></ul>

The final EA HICP inflation print confirmed the unsurprising stability at 2.4% in the April flash release. Energy price base effects will probably push it higher again in May.Underlying inflationary pressures have continued falling, with most statistical measures under 3% y-o-y with monthly impulses at or slightly below the ECB’s target.Like the consensus, we expect inflation to stay close to 2%. This outlook and subdued underlying pressures will likely ease the ECB’s decision to start cutting rates in June.

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), ABN AMRO

ABN AMRO

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

ABN AMRO is a personal bank in the digital age. A bank committed to playing a serious role in society. This digital age helps us to bring banking ever closer to our clients and what they need. Our areas of focus are inclusion, sustainability, social entrepreneurship, innovation, daily banking and more. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>US monthly core inflation drops to the lowest since December – The core CPI rose 0.3% m/m in April, which was in line with our and consensus expectations</li><li>While still firm, it was the lowest reading since last December</li><li>Annual core inflation edged down to 3.6% y/y, the lowest since April 2021</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

US monthly core inflation drops to the lowest since December – The core CPI rose 0.3% m/m in April, which was in line with our and consensus expectationsWhile still firm, it was the lowest reading since last DecemberAnnual core inflation edged down to 3.6% y/y, the lowest since April 2021Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Cooling US inflation keeps July Fed cut in play

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Nordea

Nordea

Nordea is the bank in the Nordics dedicated to serving corporations and institutional customers. Our offering includes a diverse range of financing, cash management and payment services, investment banking, capital markets products, securities services and more. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>CPIF-inflation stood at 2.3% y/y in April, up from 2.2% in March.</li><li>The outcome was just below our forecast but much lower than the Riksbank’s view.</li><li>CPIF ex energy came out at 2.9% y/y in April, unchanged from March. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

CPIF-inflation stood at 2.3% y/y in April, up from 2.2% in March.The outcome was just below our forecast but much lower than the Riksbank’s view.CPIF ex energy came out at 2.9% y/y in April, unchanged from March. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Swedish April inflation review:  Another low reading

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

<ul><li>Welcome to our weekly EM editorial where we shed light on the most important developments in the EM space in the context of the impulses from the USD markets.</li><li>Things are heating up in the global macro space as we are standing at crossroads.</li><li>Is the macro momentum finally rolling over globally (including in the US) or are we amidst a potential rebound from China that wreaks havoc with the current increasingly dovish Western consensus?</li></ul>

Welcome to our weekly EM editorial where we shed light on the most important developments in the EM space in the context of the impulses from the USD markets.Things are heating up in the global macro space as we are standing at crossroads.Is the macro momentum finally rolling over globally (including in the US) or are we amidst a potential rebound from China that wreaks havoc with the current increasingly dovish Western consensus?

China Watch: No one has noticed that China is exporting INFLATION again..

AI Generated Content, Heteronomics

Heteronomics AI

AI Generated Content

<ul><li>US CPI inflation in April 2024 slowed to 3.36% year-on-year, slightly lower than the consensus estimate.</li><li>The Core CPI rate in April 2024 matched expectations by slowing to 3.6% year-on-year.</li><li>Despite the improvement, the Core CPI rate still indicates excessively high underlying pressures.</li></ul><div>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.</div>

US CPI inflation in April 2024 slowed to 3.36% year-on-year, slightly lower than the consensus estimate.The Core CPI rate in April 2024 matched expectations by slowing to 3.6% year-on-year.Despite the improvement, the Core CPI rate still indicates excessively high underlying pressures.This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

US CPI Inflation 3.36% y-o-y (consensus 3.4%) in Apr-24

Inflation
When things get dearer

EA Inflation Eases ECB Cut in June

The final EA HICP inflation print confirmed the unsurprising stability at 2.4% in the April flash release. Energy price base effects will probably...

Phil Rush

Cooling US inflation keeps July Fed cut in play

US monthly core inflation drops to the lowest since December – The core CPI rose 0.3% m/m in April, which was in line with our and consensus...

ABN AMRO

Swedish April inflation review: Another low reading

CPIF-inflation stood at 2.3% y/y in April, up from 2.2% in March. The outcome was just below our forecast but much lower than the Riksbank’s...

Nordea

China Watch: No one has noticed that China is exporting INFLATION again..

Welcome to our weekly EM editorial where we shed light on the most important developments in the EM space in the context of the impulses from the...

Steno Research

US CPI Inflation 3.36% y-o-y (consensus 3.4%) in Apr-24

US CPI inflation in April 2024 slowed to 3.36% year-on-year, slightly lower than the consensus estimate. The Core CPI rate in April 2024 matched...

Heteronomics AI