Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>DC company share prices are rolling over, foreshadowing increasing pressure on their hyperscaler customers.  Since the July swoon in semiconductor stocks, the DC sector has underperformed both hyperscalers and semiconductors.</li>
<li>DC players face strong headwinds on multiple fronts, including high leverage/circular financing, supply chain delays, public opposition, and questions about aggressive forecasts of future compute demand.</li>
<li>Leverage is the most prominent risk in the DC sector, with questions looming about completion dates and customers' ability to meet their contracted offtake agreements.</li>
</ul>


DC company share prices are rolling over, foreshadowing increasing pressure on their hyperscaler customers.  Since the July swoon in semiconductor stocks, the DC sector has underperformed both hyperscalers and semiconductors.
DC players face strong headwinds on multiple fronts, including high leverage/circular financing, supply chain delays, public opposition, and questions about aggressive forecasts of future compute demand.
Leverage is the most prominent risk in the DC sector, with questions looming about completion dates and customers' ability to meet their contracted offtake agreements.


DATA CENTER SECTOR: From the Tip of the Spear to Canary in the Coal Mine

Director, Sentiment Matters

Lars Kreckel

Director

The mood of the market, mapped and decoded

Sentiment Matters

Investor sentiment is the overall mood of investors - how bullish or bearish they are on a market or asset.

Sentiment is part of every investor’s investment process. Whether for macro investors, stock pickers, or thematic investors, it matters whether a position is consensus or contrarian.

<ul>
<li>
Buy Side Sentiment Tracker: we aggregate asset-allocation views from 54 top asset managers across 73 assets, based on 1,400+ individual views.</li>
<li>
Bullish, but not extreme: Risk appetite is high and rising, yet equity downgrades and resilient sovereign demand show the Buy Side is far from universally risk-on.</li>
<li>
Max Contrarian: Infrastructure, Industrial Metals and Gold are most popular; Swiss Franc, Cash and Consumer Staples are least popular.</li>
</ul>



Buy Side Sentiment Tracker: we aggregate asset-allocation views from 54 top asset managers across 73 assets, based on 1,400+ individual views.

Bullish, but not extreme: Risk appetite is high and rising, yet equity downgrades and resilient sovereign demand show the Buy Side is far from universally risk-on.

Max Contrarian: Infrastructure, Industrial Metals and Gold are most popular; Swiss Franc, Cash and Consumer Staples are least popular.


Sentiment Matters: Buy Side Sentiment Tracker - October 2026

Chief Economist, Aletheia Capital

Dr. Jim Walker

Chief Economist

Independent and original Asian investment research

Aletheia Capital

Aletheia Capital (HK) Ltd. (previously known as Asianomics) combines the extensive knowledge of its experienced team with technology and regulatory changes to disrupt Global Markets business in Asia. The firm is completely independent with no conflicts of interest either on Investment Banking advisory or Capital Markets execution.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Most of the Asian PMIs were above 50 boom-bust line, except the Philippines and Malaysia which were slightly below 50. Asian trade figures also showed a good story especially Korea which recorded 84% YoY growth in exports. Everything looks rosy but is that really the case? </li><li>The stock markets are out of whack with reality. There is still loads of money around and given passive investment, when certain stocks go up, that passive investment keeps buying the winners and selling the rest. Hence the reason that 430 out of the 500 stocks in the S&amp;P this year are down year to date. </li><li>The government bond market is in competition now with the tech sector for raising funds. Governments/central banks can print money, but that would exacerbate the problem. Please realise that's not a solution, but a catastrophic failure if it begins to happen again.</li></ul>

Most of the Asian PMIs were above 50 boom-bust line, except the Philippines and Malaysia which were slightly below 50. Asian trade figures also showed a good story especially Korea which recorded 84% YoY growth in exports. Everything looks rosy but is that really the case? The stock markets are out of whack with reality. There is still loads of money around and given passive investment, when certain stocks go up, that passive investment keeps buying the winners and selling the rest. Hence the reason that 430 out of the 500 stocks in the S&amp;P this year are down year to date. The government bond market is in competition now with the tech sector for raising funds. Governments/central banks can print money, but that would exacerbate the problem. Please realise that's not a solution, but a catastrophic failure if it begins to happen again.

Walker’s Weekly: Dr. Jim's Summary of Key Global Macro Developments - 2 Oct 2026

<ul>
<li>
Treasuries Sentiment has turned sharply bearish, but not extreme. The SMA sits around the 30th percentile, still above its historical buy threshold.</li>
<li>
The underlying picture is mixed. Momentum and some speculative positioning are very bearish, while buy-side sentiment, options, analyst expectations and flows remain closer to neutral.</li>
<li>
This is not broad capitulation. Price action has been persistently poor rather than disorderly, leaving room for sentiment to deteriorate further before a stronger contrarian signal emerges.</li>
</ul>



Treasuries Sentiment has turned sharply bearish, but not extreme. The SMA sits around the 30th percentile, still above its historical buy threshold.

The underlying picture is mixed. Momentum and some speculative positioning are very bearish, while buy-side sentiment, options, analyst expectations and flows remain closer to neutral.

This is not broad capitulation. Price action has been persistently poor rather than disorderly, leaving room for sentiment to deteriorate further before a stronger contrarian signal emerges.


Sentiment Matters: US Treasuries Bearish, But Not Capitulation

Equity Long-Short

Mo Aziz

<ul>
<li>
The bond sell-off is global, not rerouted: 10-year yields are up 66-141bp in 12 months across Japan, Germany, the UK and the US. No developed market bond market gave refuge.</li>
<li>
The cash pile is a myth. US money funds are down US$90bn from their 2 Sep peak; equity funds took in US$79bn in the week to 16 Sep.</li>
<li>
Payrolls missed (+29k vs 90k), yet the 10-year closed at 5.27%. Gold broke the US$4,200 kill switch: NEUTRAL. Own TIPS in thirds; hedge dollar exposure if DXY fails at 102.13.</li>
</ul>



The bond sell-off is global, not rerouted: 10-year yields are up 66-141bp in 12 months across Japan, Germany, the UK and the US. No developed market bond market gave refuge.

The cash pile is a myth. US money funds are down US$90bn from their 2 Sep peak; equity funds took in US$79bn in the week to 16 Sep.

Payrolls missed (+29k vs 90k), yet the 10-year closed at 5.27%. Gold broke the US$4,200 kill switch: NEUTRAL. Own TIPS in thirds; hedge dollar exposure if DXY fails at 102.13.


Asset Allocation Strategy: Bond Sell-Off, No Cash Pile, Gold Stopped Out, TIPS Over the U.S. Dollar