Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Chief Economist

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>The BoE FPC cut capital requirements in a surprise macroprudential easing that adds to the less-tight fiscal policy to lessen the need for BoE rate cuts, but one is coming.</li><li>UK CFOs reveal no progress in breaking excessive inflation expectations for 18 months, EA inflation surprisingly rose, and the worst PMIs improved as resilience broadened.</li><li>Another Fed cut is firmly priced, setting it up to be delivered, but members are likely to dissent against it and remain cautious in only forecasting one more cut in 2026.</li></ul>

The BoE FPC cut capital requirements in a surprise macroprudential easing that adds to the less-tight fiscal policy to lessen the need for BoE rate cuts, but one is coming.UK CFOs reveal no progress in breaking excessive inflation expectations for 18 months, EA inflation surprisingly rose, and the worst PMIs improved as resilience broadened.Another Fed cut is firmly priced, setting it up to be delivered, but members are likely to dissent against it and remain cautious in only forecasting one more cut in 2026.

<ul><li>The worst services PMIs thawed in November, broadening growth even as averages held steady. Activity in the US services ISM has trended up to exceed the PMI data now.</li><li>A slight fading of stagflationary pressures in the latest US surveys probably balances out in the Fed’s policy trade-off. We still fear that it is easing excessively.</li><li>Rising unemployment rates in the US and UK are concerns not experienced in most of the world. This theme feeds their recent divergence from the global surprise tendency.</li></ul>

The worst services PMIs thawed in November, broadening growth even as averages held steady. Activity in the US services ISM has trended up to exceed the PMI data now.A slight fading of stagflationary pressures in the latest US surveys probably balances out in the Fed’s policy trade-off. We still fear that it is easing excessively.Rising unemployment rates in the US and UK are concerns not experienced in most of the world. This theme feeds their recent divergence from the global surprise tendency.

Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Equity Bottom-Up

Nexi Spa provides payment services. The Company offers digital invoicing, credit card payment processing, online disbursement, and other related services. Nexi serves customers in Italy.

<ul>
<li>Our key picks for 1H 2026 are driven by fundamental valuations, margin and growth prospects; top of our buy list is Nexi, with PagSeguro in second place</li>
<li>Our key sell is Affirm; the increasingly competitive BNPL market is a potential “banana skin” for its premium growth forecasts, coupled with potentially worsening consumer credit delinquency</li>
<li>Klarna is one to watch in 1H 2026, but it is not there yet; the share price’s underwhelming performance post-IPO reflects the competitive BNPL market, especially in the US</li>
</ul>


Our key picks for 1H 2026 are driven by fundamental valuations, margin and growth prospects; top of our buy list is Nexi, with PagSeguro in second place
Our key sell is Affirm; the increasingly competitive BNPL market is a potential “banana skin” for its premium growth forecasts, coupled with potentially worsening consumer credit delinquency
Klarna is one to watch in 1H 2026, but it is not there yet; the share price’s underwhelming performance post-IPO reflects the competitive BNPL market, especially in the US


Payment Companies – Our 2026 High Conviction Ideas

<ul><li>A surprise rise in EA inflation to 2.2% in November meant October’s long-awaited dip was a false dawn for a disinflationary consensus exceeded by 0.4pp since June.</li><li>The accumulated extent and the increase in service inflation to 3.5% are concerning, but the latest news was narrowly concentrated in Greece, with other errors being minor.</li><li>Stronger underlying momentum into year-end is preventing the January base effects from driving it significantly below target. The ECB’s good place isn’t breaking dovishly.</li></ul>

A surprise rise in EA inflation to 2.2% in November meant October’s long-awaited dip was a false dawn for a disinflationary consensus exceeded by 0.4pp since June.The accumulated extent and the increase in service inflation to 3.5% are concerning, but the latest news was narrowly concentrated in Greece, with other errors being minor.Stronger underlying momentum into year-end is preventing the January base effects from driving it significantly below target. The ECB’s good place isn’t breaking dovishly.

Equity Capital Markets and Advisory Business, Auctus Advisors

Auctus Advisors

Equity Capital Markets and Advisory Business

Auctus Advisors is a specialist Equity Capital Markets and Advisory business with a focus in the Energy Sector. The partners have complementary skill sets, with decades of experience across Equity Capital Markets, Investment Banking and the Energy industry. We have worked at Société Générale, Canaccord Capital, BMO Capital Markets and Schlumberger. Most recently we have worked together for many years at GMP FirstEnergy. Auctus has been set up at the beginning of a new decade in which we see significant opportunities in the Energy space. Globally, demand for energy is at record levels and continues to grow. Conversely, investment in traditional energy sources has been severely constrained. We believe this imbalance creates opportunities for both companies and investors. Auctus provides Corporate Broking, Equity Research and Investment Banking services.

ADX Energy Ltd. explores for oil and natural gas.  The Company operates onshore and offshore in Tunisia, offshore in Italy, and onshore in Australia.

<ul>
<li>ADX has increased its aggregated prospective gas resource estimates for its Sicily Channel permit from 103–369–772 bcf to 188–484–1,265 bcf (P90–P50–P10 cases).</li>
<li>The new mean prospective resource of 619 bcf reflects the increased upside potential for the permit.</li>
<li>Individual prospect sizes range between 37–111 bcf (P50 case), with four prospects each estimated at 60–68 bcf (P50).</li>
</ul>


ADX has increased its aggregated prospective gas resource estimates for its Sicily Channel permit from 103–369–772 bcf to 188–484–1,265 bcf (P90–P50–P10 cases).
The new mean prospective resource of 619 bcf reflects the increased upside potential for the permit.
Individual prospect sizes range between 37–111 bcf (P50 case), with four prospects each estimated at 60–68 bcf (P50).


ADX Energy (ASX: ADX): Resource Estimates Boost in Sicily

Italy
Insights on Italy

HEW: Easing Before The Festive Storm

The BoE FPC cut capital requirements in a surprise macroprudential easing that adds to the less-tight fiscal policy to lessen the need for BoE...

Phil Rush

Activity Thaws Into Winter

The worst services PMIs thawed in November, broadening growth even as averages held steady. Activity in the US services ISM has trended up to...

Phil Rush

Payment Companies – Our 2026 High Conviction Ideas

Top payment picks for 1H 2026: Buy Nexi, PagSeguro for deep value; Sell Affirm due to BNPL competition and credit risks; Keep an eye on Klarna's...

Victor Galliano

EA: False Dawn For Disinflation

A surprise rise in EA inflation to 2.2% in November meant October’s long-awaited dip was a false dawn for a disinflationary consensus exceeded by...

Phil Rush

ADX Energy (ASX: ADX): Resource Estimates Boost in Sicily

ADX has increased its aggregated prospective gas resource estimates for its Sicily Channel permit from 103–369–772 bcf to 188–484–1,265 bcf...

Auctus Advisors

HEW: Easing Before The Festive Storm

The BoE FPC cut capital requirements in a surprise macroprudential easing that adds to the less-tight fiscal policy to lessen the need for BoE...

Phil Rush

Activity Thaws Into Winter

The worst services PMIs thawed in November, broadening growth even as averages held steady. Activity in the US services ISM has trended up to...

Phil Rush

Payment Companies – Our 2026 High Conviction Ideas

​Top payment picks for 1H 2026: Buy Nexi, PagSeguro for deep value; Sell Affirm due to BNPL competition and credit risks; Keep an eye on Klarna's...

Victor Galliano

EA: False Dawn For Disinflation

A surprise rise in EA inflation to 2.2% in November meant October’s long-awaited dip was a false dawn for a disinflationary consensus exceeded by...

Phil Rush

ADX Energy (ASX: ADX): Resource Estimates Boost in Sicily

ADX has increased its aggregated prospective gas resource estimates for its Sicily Channel permit from 103–369–772 bcf to 188–484–1,265 bcf...

Auctus Advisors

Top payment picks for 1H 2026: Buy Nexi, PagSeguro for deep value; Sell Affirm due to BNPL competition and credit risks; Keep an eye on Klarna's...