IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

HOGY MEDICAL CO., LTD. manufactures and sells medical supply and related products including sterilized tools and disposable injectors and masks used by surgeons.

<ul>
<li>
<a target="_blank">Hogy Medical (3593 JP)</a> has recommended a tender offer from Carlyle at JPY6,700, a 2.1% premium to the last close and a 69.2% premium to the undisturbed price.</li>
<li>The offer, resulting from an auction, represents an all-time high and is above the midpoint of the IFA DCF valuation range. </li>
<li>Dalton (27.58% ownership ratio) has provided an irrevocable and will reinvest to take a 20% stake in the relevant Carlyle Fund. This is a done deal. </li>
</ul>



Hogy Medical (3593 JP) has recommended a tender offer from Carlyle at JPY6,700, a 2.1% premium to the last close and a 69.2% premium to the undisturbed price.
The offer, resulting from an auction, represents an all-time high and is above the midpoint of the IFA DCF valuation range. 
Dalton (27.58% ownership ratio) has provided an irrevocable and will reinvest to take a 20% stake in the relevant Carlyle Fund. This is a done deal. 


Hogy Medical (3593 JP): After Months of Speculation, Carlyle Lobs a Tender Offer at JPY6,700

Global Materials | Industrials | Commodities

Rahul Jain

Equity Bottom-Up

TAIHEIYO CEMENT CORPORATION manufactures cement and industrial materials such as limestone.  The Company also operates real estate, waste management (zero emission promotion), and transportation businesses. Taiheiyo Cement operates in Japan, China, and the United States.

<ul>
<li>Taiheiyo Cement’s California platform is vertically integrated and permit-constrained, yet valued at a Japanese consolidated multiple.</li>
<li>Activist engagement targets U.S. asset re-rating, capital allocation discipline, and potential monetisation.</li>
<li>Base case values shares at ¥4,800; activist outcome implies ¥7,200 driven by U.S. multiple normalisation.</li>
</ul>


Taiheiyo Cement’s California platform is vertically integrated and permit-constrained, yet valued at a Japanese consolidated multiple.
Activist engagement targets U.S. asset re-rating, capital allocation discipline, and potential monetisation.
Base case values shares at ¥4,800; activist outcome implies ¥7,200 driven by U.S. multiple normalisation.


Taiheiyo Cement (5233 JP): U.S. Scarcity Assets Drive Activist Re-Rating Potential

DOWA HOLDINGS, CO., LTD. mines, refines, smelts, and produces various metalrelated products.  The Company's main products include minerals, precious metals, battery materials, semiconductor and superconductivity materials, magnetic materials, and optical devices.

<ul>
<li>DOWA has re-rated from ¥4,500 to ~¥7,000 on risk compression and commodity optionality, not improved structural returns.</li>
<li>FY25 earnings were revised upward, but ROIC remains mid-single digit, with Electronic Materials a persistent structural drag.</li>
<li>Even at elevated silver prices, valuation appears largely priced in, supporting a Neutral stance.</li>
</ul>


DOWA has re-rated from ¥4,500 to ~¥7,000 on risk compression and commodity optionality, not improved structural returns.
FY25 earnings were revised upward, but ROIC remains mid-single digit, with Electronic Materials a persistent structural drag.
Even at elevated silver prices, valuation appears largely priced in, supporting a Neutral stance.


DOWA Holdings (5714 JP): Risk Reset Completed; Optionality Priced In

Equity/Index & Cross Asset Volatility Specialist, Cameron Design

Jay Cameron

Equity/Index & Cross Asset Volatility Specialist

Cameron Design

We specialize in financial products and volatility. Our strategies balance speed, data, and risk control to capture opportunities across global markets. Our research leverages AI and data analytics to continuously refine our algorithms and adapt to evolving market dynamics.

Equity Derivatives

SBI Shinsei Bank, Ltd. provides banking services including deposits, loans, and foreign exchange transaction, as well as investment trust service and issuance of long-term bonds.

<ul>
<li>The SBI Shinsei Bank (8303) IPO is positioned to benefit from rising Japanese interest rates and its mandate to lead regional bank consolidation under the "Fourth Megabank" strategy.</li>
<li>Despite risks such as 2023 buyout litigation related to SBI's majority control, market interest suggests the 1450 listing price seems to be undervalued.</li>
<li>The anticipated BoJ rate hike of 25bp to 0.75% is expected to act as a catalyst, boosting margins across the Japanese banking sector and potentially providing post-IPO momentum</li>
</ul>


The SBI Shinsei Bank (8303) IPO is positioned to benefit from rising Japanese interest rates and its mandate to lead regional bank consolidation under the "Fourth Megabank" strategy.
Despite risks such as 2023 buyout litigation related to SBI's majority control, market interest suggests the 1450 listing price seems to be undervalued.
The anticipated BoJ rate hike of 25bp to 0.75% is expected to act as a catalyst, boosting margins across the Japanese banking sector and potentially providing post-IPO momentum


SBI Shinsei Bank (8303) IPO Today, BoJ This Week

Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

Kioxia Holdings Corporation manufactures semiconductor memory products. The Company develops, produces, and sells flash memory cards, solid state drives, secure digital memory cards, and other products. Kioxia Holdings also operates group management strategy formulation and management.

<ul>
<li>Micron numbers will be amazing, but will they be enough to justify the parabolic price actions? Likely, yes. </li>
<li>Intel hiring a Trump proxy a further sign its aligning itself with the Govt's designs for onshore chip production. </li>
<li>Estee lauder is surging but what about Shiseido and Kose? </li>
</ul>


Micron numbers will be amazing, but will they be enough to justify the parabolic price actions? Likely, yes. 
Intel hiring a Trump proxy a further sign its aligning itself with the Govt's designs for onshore chip production. 
Estee lauder is surging but what about Shiseido and Kose? 


Tech Cautious Ahead of Micron, but Dip Buying Starting to Take Hold

Japan
Insights on Japan

Hogy Medical (3593 JP): After Months of Speculation, Carlyle Lobs a Tender Offer at JPY6,700

The offer, resulting from an auction, represents an all-time high and is above the midpoint of the IFA DCF valuation range. Dalton has provided an...

Arun George

Taiheiyo Cement (5233 JP): U.S. Scarcity Assets Drive Activist Re-Rating Potential

Activist investors target Taiheiyo Cement's California platform for re-rating and potential monetization, aiming to increase share value from...

Rahul Jain

DOWA Holdings (5714 JP): Risk Reset Completed; Optionality Priced In

DOWA's stock price has increased due to reduced risk and commodity potential, but structural issues persist, leading to a neutral outlook despite...

Rahul Jain

SBI Shinsei Bank (8303) IPO Today, BoJ This Week

SBI Shinsei Bank IPO poised to capitalize on rising Japanese interest rates and lead regional bank consolidation, despite risks and...

Jay Cameron

Tech Cautious Ahead of Micron, but Dip Buying Starting to Take Hold

Micron's strong numbers may justify high prices, Intel aligning with government for chip production, Estee Lauder surging but competition from...

Andrew Jackson

Hogy Medical (3593 JP): After Months of Speculation, Carlyle Lobs a Tender Offer at JPY6,700

The offer, resulting from an auction, represents an all-time high and is above the midpoint of the IFA DCF valuation range. Dalton has provided an...

Arun George

Taiheiyo Cement (5233 JP): U.S. Scarcity Assets Drive Activist Re-Rating Potential

​Activist investors target Taiheiyo Cement's California platform for re-rating and potential monetization, aiming to increase share value from...

Rahul Jain

DOWA Holdings (5714 JP): Risk Reset Completed; Optionality Priced In

​DOWA's stock price has increased due to reduced risk and commodity potential, but structural issues persist, leading to a neutral outlook despite...

Rahul Jain

SBI Shinsei Bank (8303) IPO Today, BoJ This Week

​SBI Shinsei Bank IPO poised to capitalize on rising Japanese interest rates and lead regional bank consolidation, despite risks and...

Jay Cameron

Tech Cautious Ahead of Micron, but Dip Buying Starting to Take Hold

​Micron's strong numbers may justify high prices, Intel aligning with government for chip production, Estee Lauder surging but competition from...

Andrew Jackson

Activist investors target Taiheiyo Cement's California platform for re-rating and potential monetization, aiming to increase share value from...

DOWA's stock price has increased due to reduced risk and commodity potential, but structural issues persist, leading to a neutral outlook despite...

SBI Shinsei Bank IPO poised to capitalize on rising Japanese interest rates and lead regional bank consolidation, despite risks and...

Micron's strong numbers may justify high prices, Intel aligning with government for chip production, Estee Lauder surging but competition from...