Korea / Special Situations, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Situations

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

Event-Driven

Samsung Electronics Pref Shares / Event-Driven

Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd. manufactures a wide range of consumer and industrial electronic equipment and products such as semiconductors, personal computers, peripherals, monitors, televisions, and home appliances including air conditioners and microwave ovens. The Company also produces Internet access network systems and telecommunications equipment including mobile phones.

Samsung Electronics Pref Shares (005935 KS)

<ul>
<li>Samsung sticks to legacy record dates and is unlikely to adjust dividends intra year, with special returns typically confirmed only after earnings and FCF are effectively locked.</li>
<li>Year end FCF driven special return setup is creating pre positioning flow and dividend arb via uncertainty and spot futures dislocation as market front runs mix.</li>
<li>Mirae shows wide special dividend range with no Samsung guidance, while market consensus anchors FCF at 250 to 270 trillion implying 115 to 125 trillion for special plus buyback split.</li>
</ul>


Samsung sticks to legacy record dates and is unlikely to adjust dividends intra year, with special returns typically confirmed only after earnings and FCF are effectively locked.
Year end FCF driven special return setup is creating pre positioning flow and dividend arb via uncertainty and spot futures dislocation as market front runs mix.
Mirae shows wide special dividend range with no Samsung guidance, while market consensus anchors FCF at 250 to 270 trillion implying 115 to 125 trillion for special plus buyback split.


Local Read Through on Samsung Special Dividend Sizing for This Year

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, DZT Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of KRX stocks as of May 29th. The aggregated holding was USD1,610.8bn.</li>
<li>We estimate that foreign flows to be outflows of USD2,209mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.</li>
<li>We highlight changes of foreign holdings in Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, Mobis, Samsung Elec (PREF), Hyundai Motor.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of KRX stocks as of May 29th. The aggregated holding was USD1,610.8bn.
We estimate that foreign flows to be outflows of USD2,209mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.
We highlight changes of foreign holdings in Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, Mobis, Samsung Elec (PREF), Hyundai Motor.


KRX Foreign Holding Weekly (May 29th): Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, Mobis, Samsung Elec (PREF)

<ul>
<li>Despite KRW 37T headline cost, cash impact is mainly tax, so FCF drag is limited; street sees KRW 125T returns split into KRW 10T base dividend, 45T special, 70T buybacks.</li>
<li>Implied DPS ~KRW 8300, ~3.6% SO retired; yields ~2.6% on commons and ~4.2% on prefs.</li>
<li>Buybacks may skew prefs, pricing that optionality; with labor risk gone, focus shifts to returns, 37% pref spread and ~4% yield could drive yield rotation and spread compression.</li>
</ul>


Despite KRW 37T headline cost, cash impact is mainly tax, so FCF drag is limited; street sees KRW 125T returns split into KRW 10T base dividend, 45T special, 70T buybacks.
Implied DPS ~KRW 8300, ~3.6% SO retired; yields ~2.6% on commons and ~4.2% on prefs.
Buybacks may skew prefs, pricing that optionality; with labor risk gone, focus shifts to returns, 37% pref spread and ~4% yield could drive yield rotation and spread compression.


Samsung FCF Estimate Factoring in Bonus Hit

Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Equity Bottom-Up

Samsung Fire & Marine Insuranc / Equity Bottom-Up

Samsung Fire & Marine Insurance Co., Ltd. provides insurance services. The Company offers auto, fire, marine, casualty, health, leisure, and retirement products and services. Samsung Fire & Marine Insurance serves customers in South Korea.

Samsung Fire & Marine Insuranc (000815 KS)

<ul>
<li>
Context: The price ratio of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsung-fire-marine-insurance" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:511:1" rel="noopener">Samsung Fire &amp; Marine Insurance Common Shares (000810 KS)</a> vs. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsung-fire-marine-insuranc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27499:1" rel="noopener">Preferred Shares (000815 KS)</a> has deviated more than three standard deviations from its one-year average.</li>
<li>
 Highlight: Going long <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsung-fire-marine-insuranc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27499:1" rel="noopener">Samsung Fire &amp; Marine Insurance Preferred Shares (000815 KS)</a> and short <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsung-fire-marine-insurance" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:511:1" rel="noopener">Samsung Fire &amp; Marine Insurance Common Shares (000810 KS)</a>  targets a 4% return.</li>
<li>
Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.</li>
</ul>



Context: The price ratio of Samsung Fire &amp; Marine Insurance Common Shares (000810 KS) vs. Preferred Shares (000815 KS) has deviated more than three standard deviations from its one-year average.

 Highlight: Going long Samsung Fire &amp; Marine Insurance Preferred Shares (000815 KS) and short Samsung Fire &amp; Marine Insurance Common Shares (000810 KS)  targets a 4% return.

Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.


Samsung Fire & Marine Preferred (000815 KS) Vs Common (000810 KS): Share-Class Dislocation Returns

<ul>
<li>OPI stays EVA based, no shift to operating profit payout, focus on WACC lock or band as least bad compromise, equity negative, offset likely via stronger capital return package.</li>
<li>FCF payout up to 60 percent, higher dividend floor, more systematic buybacks, plus ADR listing optionality to reinforce constraints on operating profit payout shift.</li>
<li>Base case is one off bonus plus WACC freeze, priced in, late June catalyst, positioning into capital return upside, ADR optionality, and preferred share discount compression.</li>
</ul>


OPI stays EVA based, no shift to operating profit payout, focus on WACC lock or band as least bad compromise, equity negative, offset likely via stronger capital return package.
FCF payout up to 60 percent, higher dividend floor, more systematic buybacks, plus ADR listing optionality to reinforce constraints on operating profit payout shift.
Base case is one off bonus plus WACC freeze, priced in, late June catalyst, positioning into capital return upside, ADR optionality, and preferred share discount compression.


Samsung Union Noise Trade: WACC Freeze Vs Incremental Capital Return Package Setup

Korea Pref Shares
Insights on Korean Pref Shares

Local Read Through on Samsung Special Dividend Sizing for This Year

This is a local read through on current market positioning and street consensus views around Samsung special dividend sizing for this year.

Sanghyun Park

KRX Foreign Holding Weekly (May 29th): Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, Mobis, Samsung Elec (PREF)

We analyzed KRX foreign holding data for the past week and highlighted foreign holding changes in Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, Mobis, Samsung...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Samsung FCF Estimate Factoring in Bonus Hit

This post estimates Samsung Electronics FY FCF including bonus impact, which could drive yield rotation and tighten the preferred common spread.

Sanghyun Park

Samsung Union Noise Trade: WACC Freeze Vs Incremental Capital Return Package Setup

Talks breakdown is immaterial and priced in. Union is inflexible on OPI linkage and bonus cap removal, management will not concede, so no deal was...

Sanghyun Park

Local Read Through on Samsung Special Dividend Sizing for This Year

This is a local read through on current market positioning and street consensus views around Samsung special dividend sizing for this year.

Sanghyun Park

KRX Foreign Holding Weekly (May 29th): Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, Mobis, Samsung Elec (PREF)

We analyzed KRX foreign holding data for the past week and highlighted foreign holding changes in Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, Mobis, Samsung...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Samsung FCF Estimate Factoring in Bonus Hit

This post estimates Samsung Electronics FY FCF including bonus impact, which could drive yield rotation and tighten the preferred common spread.

Sanghyun Park

Samsung Fire & Marine Preferred (000815 KS) Vs Common (000810 KS): Share-Class Dislocation Returns

Share-class pair trade returns as the discount between Samsung Fire & Marine’s common and preferred shares widens. Essential for quantitative...

Gaudenz Schneider

Samsung Union Noise Trade: WACC Freeze Vs Incremental Capital Return Package Setup

Talks breakdown is immaterial and priced in. Union is inflexible on OPI linkage and bonus cap removal, management will not concede, so no deal was...

Sanghyun Park