New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Equity Bottom-Up

Ryman Healthcare Limited provides private health care services through its development, management and operation of retirement villages, nursing homes and geriatric hospitals.  The Company's facilities are located in Christchurch, Dunedin, Invercargill and Wellington.

<ul><li>Ryman Healthcare’s (RYM) 2Q27 trading update delivered some long-awaited positive newsflow for investors.</li><li>The key positive was a solid pick-up in resale volumes, which rose to the highest level in eight quarters.</li><li>If RYM can sustain this momentum, it should be able to reduce the significant working capital drag from repurchasing aged stock (~NZ$53m in FY26) and materially improve cash generation.</li></ul>

Ryman Healthcare’s (RYM) 2Q27 trading update delivered some long-awaited positive newsflow for investors.The key positive was a solid pick-up in resale volumes, which rose to the highest level in eight quarters.If RYM can sustain this momentum, it should be able to reduce the significant working capital drag from repurchasing aged stock (~NZ$53m in FY26) and materially improve cash generation.

Ryman Healthcare 2Q27 Sales Update—Resale Revival

Fundamental Analyses, Contrarian Cashflows

Contrarian Cashflows

Fundamental Analyses

The purpose of Contrarian Cashflows is to document my investment research and share it with everyone who is interested in value investing. My long term aspiration for Contrarian Cashflows is to become a platform for professional investors and serious amateurs where they can get inspiration and discuss investing-related topics.
I plan to publish one company deep dive per month that is guided by my investment approach. All information I use for my write-ups is publicly available and most of the time directly sourced from public filings issued by the respective companies. To guarantee maximum transparency, for every post I provide a list of all used sources in the resources section.
Contrarian Cashflows is built around the principles of respect, honesty, open-mindedness and a touch of humour. Please consider these principles in any engagement interaction with me, other readers and the content on this blog. Misbehaviour is not tolerated.
If you want to reach out to me directly, the best way is via LinkedIn, Twitter or email. You can find the details at my homepage contrariancashflows.com

Spark New Zealand Limited (formerly Telecom Corporation of New Zealand Limited) provides digital communications, entertainment and IT services over its networks and the Cloud to New Zealanders and businesses. The Company's strategy is focused on mobility, data and effortless service, and cost.

<ul><li>Spark New Zealand (NZX/ASX: SPK) is a telecommunications group privatised in 1990 as the former state telephone monopoly, providing mobile, broadband and IT/cloud services (“Digital Services”) across New Zealand.</li><li>Spark already ran the obvious arbitrage: between 2022 and early 2026 it sold 100% of its mobile towers and 75% of its data-centre business to infrastructure buyers at 30-34x and up to 30.8x EBITDA respectively</li><li>Banking roughly NZ$1.98bn — rich prices for passive assets a generalist telecom market was never going to pay for the whole group.</li></ul>

Spark New Zealand (NZX/ASX: SPK) is a telecommunications group privatised in 1990 as the former state telephone monopoly, providing mobile, broadband and IT/cloud services (“Digital Services”) across New Zealand.Spark already ran the obvious arbitrage: between 2022 and early 2026 it sold 100% of its mobile towers and 75% of its data-centre business to infrastructure buyers at 30-34x and up to 30.8x EBITDA respectivelyBanking roughly NZ$1.98bn — rich prices for passive assets a generalist telecom market was never going to pay for the whole group.

Chief Executive Officer, Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Chief Executive Officer

Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Emmer Capital Partners is an Asia Pacific focused financial advisory firm engaging in strategic financial asset allocation advice, bespoke thematic research and advising early-stage companies and connecting them to investors. Emmer Capital provides macro-economic and multi-asset investment strategy inputs to institutions, family offices, private wealth managers, private equity, and corporate boards directly and through independent research platforms. Emmer Capital also advises a wide range of startup companies on fund raising and business strategy. Emmer Capital's active engagement with the print and electronic media reaches a broad spectrum of investors across the globe.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>FIIs sold US$23.5bn Asian equity in September and US$9.4bn till 8th October. September's selling was primarily in Korea (US$16.9bn), India (US$3.75bn), Taiwan (US$1.3bn). Thailand (US$793m), Indonesia (US$577m), Philippines (US$135m) too.</li>
<li>In early October there's an acceleration in FII exodus from India (sold US$4.6bn). The pace of selling in Korea remains unaltered (sold US$4.7bn). Taiwan was bought in small measure (US$28m).</li>
<li>Among North Asian tech titans, FIIs clearly prefer Taiwan over Korea. If US yields spike further, we'd be cautious about India, Indonesia, Philippines. Korea could continue to get sold too.</li>
</ul>


FIIs sold US$23.5bn Asian equity in September and US$9.4bn till 8th October. September's selling was primarily in Korea (US$16.9bn), India (US$3.75bn), Taiwan (US$1.3bn). Thailand (US$793m), Indonesia (US$577m), Philippines (US$135m) too.
In early October there's an acceleration in FII exodus from India (sold US$4.6bn). The pace of selling in Korea remains unaltered (sold US$4.7bn). Taiwan was bought in small measure (US$28m).
Among North Asian tech titans, FIIs clearly prefer Taiwan over Korea. If US yields spike further, we'd be cautious about India, Indonesia, Philippines. Korea could continue to get sold too.


Asian Equities: Ferocious Foreign Selling in September and Early October; Only Taiwan Seems Immune

<ul><li>RYM reported 67 new unit sales in 2Q27, down -28% year-on-year from 2Q26.</li><li>RYM reported 312 resales for 2Q27, up +14% year-on-year versus 2Q26 and up +18% sequentially on 1Q27.</li><li>Occupancy trends remain positive, with mature occupancy steady at 95.4% in 2Q27.</li></ul>

RYM reported 67 new unit sales in 2Q27, down -28% year-on-year from 2Q26.RYM reported 312 resales for 2Q27, up +14% year-on-year versus 2Q26 and up +18% sequentially on 1Q27.Occupancy trends remain positive, with mature occupancy steady at 95.4% in 2Q27.

Ryman Healthcare (RYM): 2Q27 Sales and Trading Update

Vista Group International / Equity Bottom-Up

Vista Group International Limited provides film industry software. The Company offers cinema, distribution and data analytical software to the global film industry.

<ul><li>Vista Group (VGL) expects c.NZ$12m of EBITDA from its end-2030 Payments annual recurring revenue (ARR) aspiration, supporting our positive view of the opportunity.</li><li>At the NZX Tech Day 2026, management gave an EBITDA aspiration implying a c.80% margin, marginally ahead of our 75% estimate, clarifying the earnings potential of Payments.</li><li>Our NZ$18.6m FY30 Payments revenue forecast already exceeds management’s aspiration.</li></ul>

Vista Group (VGL) expects c.NZ$12m of EBITDA from its end-2030 Payments annual recurring revenue (ARR) aspiration, supporting our positive view of the opportunity.At the NZX Tech Day 2026, management gave an EBITDA aspiration implying a c.80% margin, marginally ahead of our 75% estimate, clarifying the earnings potential of Payments.Our NZ$18.6m FY30 Payments revenue forecast already exceeds management’s aspiration.