Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Equity Bottom-Up

Stockland is a diversified Australian property group. The Group develops and manages Retail centers, Residential Communities and Retirement Living assets with a focus on regional centers and outer metropolitan. Stockland also owns a portfolio of Office and Industrial assets.

<ul>
<li>
Context: The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gpt-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:168:1" rel="noopener">GPT Group (GPT AU)</a> vs. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/stockland" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:661:1" rel="noopener">Stockland (SGP AU)</a> price-ratio has deviated more than two standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.</li>
<li>
Highlights: Going long Stockland (SGP AU) and short The GPT Group (GPT AU) targets a 4% return, with Stockland (SGP AU) supported by a lower P/E multiple.</li>
<li>
Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.</li>
</ul>



Context: The GPT Group (GPT AU) vs. Stockland (SGP AU) price-ratio has deviated more than two standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.

Highlights: Going long Stockland (SGP AU) and short The GPT Group (GPT AU) targets a 4% return, with Stockland (SGP AU) supported by a lower P/E multiple.

Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.


Stockland (SGP AU) Vs. The GPT Group (GPT AU): Valuation Supports Long/Short Stat Arb Opportunity

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Genesis Energy Ltd. generates, transports, and retails electricity. The Company owns and operates hydroelectric generating stations to produce electricity, as well as explores natural gas and bottled liquefied petroleum gas.

<ul><li>Genesis Energy’s (GNE) investor day was long on options but short on targets, reflecting the current state of the fuel market.</li><li>While GNE provided no long-term targets, its medium-term FY28 earnings goal and dividend path remain unchanged.</li><li>To achieve its goals, GNE needs capital.</li></ul>

Genesis Energy’s (GNE) investor day was long on options but short on targets, reflecting the current state of the fuel market.While GNE provided no long-term targets, its medium-term FY28 earnings goal and dividend path remain unchanged.To achieve its goals, GNE needs capital.

Genesis Energy Long Options, Short Targets—2025 IR Day

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Predictive Discovery Ltd. explores for gold in Burkina Faso in Africa, and uranium in Australia.  The Company operates in the Fada N'Gourma and Manga-Sebba greenstone belts in Burkina Faso; and in Northern Territory, Australia.

<ul>
<li>On the 6th October, West African mid-tier gold play <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/predictive-discovery-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15374:1" rel="noopener">Predictive Discovery (PDI AU)</a> announced scrip-merger with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/robex-resources-inc-5fcb5aec-772d-4972-be7e-30cad5c02e26" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45881:1" rel="noopener">Robex Resources (RBX CN/RBX AU)</a>. Upon completion, PDI would hold 51% of shares out.</li>
<li>Immediately, rumours circled in local media that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/perseus-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15306:1" rel="noopener">Perseus Mining (PRU AU)</a>, PDI's largest shareholder (17.8%), was poised to launch its own offer. That has now unfolded. </li>
<li>Perseus is offering 0.1360 new Perseus share for every PDI share, or an indicative consideration of A$0.778/share. PDI deemed terms superior. Robex has matching rights under its definitive agreement.</li>
</ul>


On the 6th October, West African mid-tier gold play Predictive Discovery (PDI AU) announced scrip-merger with Robex Resources (RBX CN/RBX AU). Upon completion, PDI would hold 51% of shares out.
Immediately, rumours circled in local media that Perseus Mining (PRU AU), PDI's largest shareholder (17.8%), was poised to launch its own offer. That has now unfolded. 
Perseus is offering 0.1360 new Perseus share for every PDI share, or an indicative consideration of A$0.778/share. PDI deemed terms superior. Robex has matching rights under its definitive agreement.


Predictive: Perseus Pitches Preferred Proposal

African Gold Ltd. produces and distributes packaged food products. The Company supplies a range of flavored biltong. African Gold serves customers in Australia.

<ul>
<li>The gold rush continues with another Canadian outfit bidding to take over an Aussie-listed West African gold play. </li>
<li>Junior miner <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/african-gold-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29028:1" rel="noopener">African Gold (A1G AU)</a>has entered into a Scheme with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/montage-gold-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:43368:1" rel="noopener">Montage Gold (MAU CN)</a>. African Gold shareholders will receive 0.0628 new MAU shares for every A1G share.</li>
<li>That backs out an implied value of A$0.50/share. Independent directors, holding 11.6% of shares out, are supportive. Montage holds 17.3%. Clean deal.</li>
</ul>


The gold rush continues with another Canadian outfit bidding to take over an Aussie-listed West African gold play. 
Junior miner African Gold (A1G AU)has entered into a Scheme with Montage Gold (MAU CN). African Gold shareholders will receive 0.0628 new MAU shares for every A1G share.
That backs out an implied value of A$0.50/share. Independent directors, holding 11.6% of shares out, are supportive. Montage holds 17.3%. Clean deal.


African Gold Ltd (A1G AU) Enters Scheme With Montage Gold (MAU CN)

Toyota Motor Corporation manufactures, sells, leases, and repairs passenger cars, trucks, buses, and their related parts worldwide. The Company also operates financing services through their subsidiaries. Toyota Motor builds homes, produces pleasure boats, and develops intelligent transportation systems including radar cruise control and electronic toll collection systems.

<ul>
<li>
Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.</li>
<li>
Highlights: Currently twelve pair trade opportunities across four markets and five sectors persist.</li>
<li>
Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.</li>
</ul>



Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.

Highlights: Currently twelve pair trade opportunities across four markets and five sectors persist.

Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.


Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (1 Dec)

Sector/market-neutral pairs and long/short trades

Pair Trades and Long/Short Ideas
Sector/market-neutral pairs and long/short trades

Stockland (SGP AU) Vs. The GPT Group (GPT AU): Valuation Supports Long/Short Stat Arb Opportunity

Pair Trade: Stockland vs. The GPT Group price ratio signals a ~4% relative value trade to the one-standard-deviation line, ideal for quant traders...

Gaudenz Schneider

Genesis Energy Long Options, Short Targets—2025 IR Day

While GNE provided no long-term targets, its medium-term FY28 earnings goal and dividend path remain unchanged. To achieve its goals, GNE needs...

Forsyth Barr

Predictive: Perseus Pitches Preferred Proposal

Robex has limited options. PRU will just up the ante and block any attempt to wrangle "superior" terms. If you can take down borrow cheaply, look...

David Blennerhassett

African Gold Ltd (A1G AU) Enters Scheme With Montage Gold (MAU CN)

As this is a cross-border trade, you could try to go short MAU late in its trading day; long African Gold, early in its trading day; however the...

David Blennerhassett

Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (1 Dec)

Statistical methodology identifies twelve pair trade opportunities across four markets and five sectors, offering unique insights into relative...

Gaudenz Schneider

Stockland (SGP AU) Vs. The GPT Group (GPT AU): Valuation Supports Long/Short Stat Arb Opportunity

Pair Trade: Stockland vs. The GPT Group price ratio signals a ~4% relative value trade to the one-standard-deviation line, ideal for quant traders...

Gaudenz Schneider

Genesis Energy Long Options, Short Targets—2025 IR Day

While GNE provided no long-term targets, its medium-term FY28 earnings goal and dividend path remain unchanged. To achieve its goals, GNE needs...

Forsyth Barr

Predictive: Perseus Pitches Preferred Proposal

Robex has limited options. PRU will just up the ante and block any attempt to wrangle "superior" terms. If you can take down borrow cheaply, look...

David Blennerhassett

African Gold Ltd (A1G AU) Enters Scheme With Montage Gold (MAU CN)

As this is a cross-border trade, you could try to go short MAU late in its trading day; long African Gold, early in its trading day; however the...

David Blennerhassett

Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (1 Dec)

​Statistical methodology identifies twelve pair trade opportunities across four markets and five sectors, offering unique insights into relative...

Gaudenz Schneider

Statistical methodology identifies twelve pair trade opportunities across four markets and five sectors, offering unique insights into relative...