Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist, Trudence Capital Advisors

Pranav Bhavsar

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist

Trudence Capital Advisors

Trudence Capital Advisors Private Limited is a SEBI-registered Research Analyst, holding SEBI registration number INH000015747. Our firm is dedicated to providing independent and unbiased research on Indian mid to large-cap companies. Trudence Capital is known for its counter-consensus views, with a focus on forensic research and on-ground primary investigations. Our research approach is thorough, involving detailed analysis of accounting practices and governance, alongside extensive channel checks.

Independent & Unbiased Research

Equity Bottom-Up

Shoppers Stop Ltd. operates a chain of retail shops.  The Company retails men's, women's, and children's clothing; cosmetics and skin and hair care products;  home appliances; housewares; linens; luggage; jewelry; and accessories.

<ul>
<li>As we progress in earnings season in line with our previous Playbook, this one focuses on select consumer names. </li>
<li>Names discussed include <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/titan-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12630:1" rel="noopener">Titan Co Ltd (TTAN IN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vedant-fashions-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34260:1" rel="noopener">Vedant Fashions (MANYAVAR IN)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/go-fashion-india-private-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36625:1" rel="noopener">Go Fashion India (GOCOLORS IN)</a> &amp; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shoppers-stop-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12804:1" rel="noopener">Shoppers Stop (SHOP IN)</a>.  </li>
<li>Most names expect a soft Q1, and SHOP is targeting the most aggressive expansion.</li>
</ul>


As we progress in earnings season in line with our previous Playbook, this one focuses on select consumer names. 
Names discussed include Titan Co Ltd (TTAN IN), Vedant Fashions (MANYAVAR IN) , Go Fashion India (GOCOLORS IN) &amp; Shoppers Stop (SHOP IN).  
Most names expect a soft Q1, and SHOP is targeting the most aggressive expansion.


Earnings Playbook | Shoppers Stop (SHOP IN) | Target of Quadrupling Network

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Emkay Global Financial Services Limited

Emkay

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Emkay Global Financial Services Limited

Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd. is a leader in the financial services sector, actively creating wealth for our clients for over two decades. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Mahindra & Mahindra Fin Services Ltd. / Equity Bottom-Up

Mahindra & Mahindra Financial Services Limited is a finance company that provides finance to prospective buyers of Mahindra range of utility vehicles and tractors.  The Company extends finance through hire purchase/loan and lease modes.  Mahindra & Mahindra has a network of branches located across India.

Mahindra & Mahindra Fin Services Ltd. (MMFS IN)

<ul><li>Emkay Global Financial's research report onMahindra Finance MMFS reported a satisfactory performance in Q4FY24, against the backdrop of the already disclosed large-scale fraud at Company’s Aizawl branch comprising of ~2.9K loan accounts and ~Rs1.36bn worth of loans.</li><li>However, overall FY24 performance led to Management lowering the targets it had set for FY25, from 2.5% RoA to ~2.2% RoA, and cutting FY25 Business Assets growth guidance to ~1.85x that in FY22 from ~2x.</li><li>With borrowing costs remaining elevated in FY25 and OpEx too holding up, on account of investments in branches, human resources and technology, we estimate MMFS delivering standalone RoA of ~2% in FY25-27E.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Emkay Global Financial's research report onMahindra Finance MMFS reported a satisfactory performance in Q4FY24, against the backdrop of the already disclosed large-scale fraud at Company’s Aizawl branch comprising of ~2.9K loan accounts and ~Rs1.36bn worth of loans.However, overall FY24 performance led to Management lowering the targets it had set for FY25, from 2.5% RoA to ~2.2% RoA, and cutting FY25 Business Assets growth guidance to ~1.85x that in FY22 from ~2x.With borrowing costs remaining elevated in FY25 and OpEx too holding up, on account of investments in branches, human resources and technology, we estimate MMFS delivering standalone RoA of ~2% in FY25-27E.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Mahindra Finance - Satisfactory Performance

Gujarat Fluorochemicals / Equity Bottom-Up

Gujarat Fluorochemicals Ltd. manufactures chlorofluorocarbon refrigerant gases and anhydrous hydrofluoric acid. The Company also trades in Certified Emission Reduction, or carbon credits. Gujarat Flourochemicals owns and operates a chain of family entertainment centers and multiplex cinema theaters.

<ul><li>Emkay Global Financial's research report onGujarat Fluorochemicals GFL’s Q4 EBITDA fell 54% YoY to Rs2.4bn (+15% QoQ) on sluggish performance in the bulk and fluorochemicals businesses.</li><li>Fluoropolymers business is seeing sequential recovery in volumes on a lower base.</li><li>Management expects to report FY25E EBITDA at Rs18-19bn, which we believe is farfetched; we factor-in ~Rs14bn in our estimates.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Emkay Global Financial's research report onGujarat Fluorochemicals GFL’s Q4 EBITDA fell 54% YoY to Rs2.4bn (+15% QoQ) on sluggish performance in the bulk and fluorochemicals businesses.Fluoropolymers business is seeing sequential recovery in volumes on a lower base.Management expects to report FY25E EBITDA at Rs18-19bn, which we believe is farfetched; we factor-in ~Rs14bn in our estimates.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Gujarat Fluorochemicals - Farfetched Guidance and Modest Recovery

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

KLA-Tencor Corporation manufactures yield management and process monitoring systems for the semiconductor industry.  The Company's systems are used to analyze product and process quality at critical steps in the manufacture of circuits and provide feedback so that fabrication problems can be identified. KLA-Tencor operates sales, service, and application centers worldwide.

<ul>
<li>Q124 revenues of 2.36 billion, $60 million above the guided midpoint, down 5% QoQ and down 3% YoY.</li>
<li>Current quarter revenue guidance of $2.5 billion representing a ~6% QoQ increase and about the same YoY.</li>
<li>Share price close to record highs yet CY2024 outlook is tepid while the massive over reliance on China just keeps on going</li>
</ul>


Q124 revenues of 2.36 billion, $60 million above the guided midpoint, down 5% QoQ and down 3% YoY.
Current quarter revenue guidance of $2.5 billion representing a ~6% QoQ increase and about the same YoY.
Share price close to record highs yet CY2024 outlook is tepid while the massive over reliance on China just keeps on going


KLAC. Priced For Perfection In 2025 & Beyond

Equity Analyst, Event-driven, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Equity Analyst, Event-driven

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Event-Driven

Wipro Limited specializes in IT and computer related technologies. The Group's services encompass a number of areas, including software architecture, business intelligence systems, e-commerce, data warehousing, Internet access devices, network management, system administration, messaging systems, IT consulting and design. Wipro also has a presence in niche markets of consumer products.

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the Potential ADDs/DELs for the BSE SENSEX, 100, and 200 Indices in the June 2024 index rebal event.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wipro-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15360:1" rel="noopener">Wipro Ltd (WPRO IN)</a>'s deletion from Sensex is imminent but there are question marks over the top replacement names as this involves some subjectivity.  </li>
<li>For BSE 100, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jio-financial-services-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40042:1" rel="noopener">Jio Financial Services (JIOFIN IN)</a> is a new potential ADD and that has caused major changes to the index change expectations I had previously.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the Potential ADDs/DELs for the BSE SENSEX, 100, and 200 Indices in the June 2024 index rebal event.

Wipro Ltd (WPRO IN)'s deletion from Sensex is imminent but there are question marks over the top replacement names as this involves some subjectivity.  
For BSE 100, Jio Financial Services (JIOFIN IN) is a new potential ADD and that has caused major changes to the index change expectations I had previously.


Quiddity Leaderboard BSE/​​​​SENSEX Jun 24: Jio Financial Addition Creates New Possibilities

Sell / Short Ideas
Outperform on the downside

Earnings Playbook | Shoppers Stop (SHOP IN) | Target of Quadrupling Network

We focus on select consumer names in the earnings season. Most names expect a soft Q1, with Shoppers Stop targeting aggressive expansion.

Pranav Bhavsar

Mahindra Finance - Satisfactory Performance

Emkay Global Financial's research report onMahindra Finance MMFS reported a satisfactory performance in Q4FY24, against the backdrop of the already...

Emkay

Gujarat Fluorochemicals - Farfetched Guidance and Modest Recovery

Emkay Global Financial's research report onGujarat Fluorochemicals GFL’s Q4 EBITDA fell 54% YoY to Rs2.4bn (+15% QoQ) on sluggish performance in...

Emkay

KLAC. Priced For Perfection In 2025 & Beyond

Q124 revenue $2.36 billion, -5% QoQ & -3% YoY. Current quarter guidance $2.5 billion, +6% QoQ, same YoY. China revenue rose to 42%, same as for...

William Keating

Quiddity Leaderboard BSE/SENSEX Jun 24: Jio Financial Addition Creates New Possibilities

The reference period for the BSE/SENSEX June 2024 ended on 30th April 2024. The index expectations discussed in this insight are our final...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Earnings Playbook | Shoppers Stop (SHOP IN) | Target of Quadrupling Network

We focus on select consumer names in the earnings season. Most names expect a soft Q1, with Shoppers Stop targeting aggressive expansion.

Pranav Bhavsar

Mahindra Finance - Satisfactory Performance

Emkay Global Financial's research report onMahindra Finance MMFS reported a satisfactory performance in Q4FY24, against the backdrop of the already...

Emkay

Gujarat Fluorochemicals - Farfetched Guidance and Modest Recovery

Emkay Global Financial's research report onGujarat Fluorochemicals GFL’s Q4 EBITDA fell 54% YoY to Rs2.4bn (+15% QoQ) on sluggish performance in...

Emkay

KLAC. Priced For Perfection In 2025 & Beyond

Q124 revenue $2.36 billion, -5% QoQ & -3% YoY. Current quarter guidance $2.5 billion, +6% QoQ, same YoY. China revenue rose to 42%, same as for...

William Keating

Quiddity Leaderboard BSE/​​​​SENSEX Jun 24: Jio Financial Addition Creates New Possibilities

The reference period for the BSE/SENSEX June 2024 ended on 30th April 2024. The index expectations discussed in this insight are our final...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Quiddity Leaderboard BSE/SENSEX Jun 24: Jio Financial Addition Creates New Possibilities