Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Equity Bottom-Up

Hong Kong Exchanges & Clearing Limited owns and operates the stock exchange, futures exchange, and their related clearing houses in Hong Kong.  The Company provides the trading platforms for a range of cash and derivatives products and the facilities for processing trades.

<ul>
<li>The top line of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-exchanges-clearing" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:490:1" rel="noopener">HKEX (388 HK)</a> is down 7% YoY, the next major income line is down 3% YoY while operating costs are up 8% YoY, in 1Q24.</li>
<li>Average daily turnover is down 22% YoY, and to us this is the main story, a marginalization of the Hong Kong Exchange. </li>
<li>Geopolitical risks remain high, the historical positioning of Hong Kong is less relevant today, with worsening economic concerns in China, in close proximity. </li>
</ul>


The top line of HKEX (388 HK) is down 7% YoY, the next major income line is down 3% YoY while operating costs are up 8% YoY, in 1Q24.
Average daily turnover is down 22% YoY, and to us this is the main story, a marginalization of the Hong Kong Exchange. 
Geopolitical risks remain high, the historical positioning of Hong Kong is less relevant today, with worsening economic concerns in China, in close proximity. 


HKEX - Revenue Down, Investment Income Down, Operating Costs Up, Will It All Reverse?

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of TWSE Stocks as of May 17th which has an aggregated short interest worth USD98.9bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Hon Hai, Wiwynn, Quanta Computer, Asia Vital, Unimicron Tech, Shihlin Elec&amp;Eng, Ap Memory Tech, Yang Ming Marine, China Airlines.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of TWSE Stocks as of May 17th which has an aggregated short interest worth USD98.9bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Hon Hai, Wiwynn, Quanta Computer, Asia Vital, Unimicron Tech, Shihlin Elec&amp;Eng, Ap Memory Tech, Yang Ming Marine, China Airlines.


TWSE Short Interest Weekly (May 17th): Hon Hai, Wiwynn, Quanta Computer, Asia Vital, Unimicron Tech

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

JD.com, Inc. is an online direct sales company in China. The Company offers a wide selection of products through its website and mobile applications. JD.com sells appliances, computers, digital products, communication products, garments, books, and household items to consumers and vendors.

<ul>
<li>As expected, there are no constituent changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-tech-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31367:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng TECH Index (HSTECH INDEX)</a> in June. However, there are float and capping changes.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 8% leading to a round-trip trade of HK$19.2bn (US$2.46bn). There is over 3x ADV to buy in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/li-auto-inc-3dbe6187-544f-40dd-b9f9-72fba9c0110e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33811:1" rel="noopener">Li Auto (2015 HK)</a>. </li>
<li>Short interest is quite elevated on a lot of stocks both in terms of days of ADV and in terms of free float.</li>
</ul>


As expected, there are no constituent changes for the Hang Seng TECH Index (HSTECH INDEX) in June. However, there are float and capping changes.
Estimated one-way turnover is 8% leading to a round-trip trade of HK$19.2bn (US$2.46bn). There is over 3x ADV to buy in Li Auto (2015 HK). 
Short interest is quite elevated on a lot of stocks both in terms of days of ADV and in terms of free float.


HSTECH Index Rebalance: Float & Capping Changes Result in 8% Turnover & US$2.5bn Round-Trip Trade

Head of Trading/ Partner, AceGama Advisors

Sankalp Singh

Head of Trading/ Partner

Proprietary Trading Desk

AceGama Advisors

Trading desk specializing in the Listed & OTC options strategies for risk management & investment purposes.

The NIFTY 50 index is National Stock Exchange of India's benchmark stock market index for Indian equity market. Nifty is owned and managed by India Index Services and Products (IISL), which is a wholly owned subsidiary of the NSE Strategic Investment Corporation Limited.

<ul>
<li>Curtail Short Gamma &amp; Short Vega exposure as Vol-regime has switched to "High &amp; Up" state.  </li>
<li>Short-Dated IVs traded markedly lower, driven by recovering equities &amp; the 20-May market holiday</li>
<li>Nifty50 vol curve is exhibiting unusual kinked shape. Monthly IVs are commanding a large vol markup relative to rest of the curve. </li>
</ul>


Curtail Short Gamma &amp; Short Vega exposure as Vol-regime has switched to "High &amp; Up" state.  
Short-Dated IVs traded markedly lower, driven by recovering equities &amp; the 20-May market holiday
Nifty50 vol curve is exhibiting unusual kinked shape. Monthly IVs are commanding a large vol markup relative to rest of the curve. 


EQD / NSE Volatility Update / 13-May-24 to 17-May-24

Quantitative Equity Analyst, DMA

Charlotte van Tiddens, CFA

Quantitative Equity Analyst

Technology-First Company

DMA is a technology-first company that provides an end-to-end SaaS solution to institutional investors. DMA enables regulated entities like asset managers, wealth managers, investment managers and financial advisors to connect their front and back office, break silos and reduce headcount.

Prosus N.V. provides internet based services. The Company focuses on investments in internet, digital media, e-commerce retailing, and consumer internet companies. Prosus serves customers worldwide.

<ul>
<li>Naspers and Prosus have announced the appointment of Fabrício Bloisi as Group CEO, effective from 1 July 2024. Unlike his predecessor, Bloisi has an entrepreneurial background.</li>
<li>Prosus and Naspers have sold off on the news. Prosus is down 1.7%, widening the discount by 80bps. Naspers is down 1.3%, widening the discount by 50bps.</li>
<li>Since Bob van Dijk stepped down in September last year, both discounts have narrowed.</li>
</ul>


Naspers and Prosus have announced the appointment of Fabrício Bloisi as Group CEO, effective from 1 July 2024. Unlike his predecessor, Bloisi has an entrepreneurial background.
Prosus and Naspers have sold off on the news. Prosus is down 1.7%, widening the discount by 80bps. Naspers is down 1.3%, widening the discount by 50bps.
Since Bob van Dijk stepped down in September last year, both discounts have narrowed.


Naspers X Prosus (NPN, PRX): Market Reacts Negatively to Appointment of CEO

Sell / Short Ideas
Outperform on the downside

HKEX - Revenue Down, Investment Income Down, Operating Costs Up, Will It All Reverse?

The direction of most line items are poor and this is not likely to reverse. The top line decline is especially severe as is average daily...

Daniel Tabbush

TWSE Short Interest Weekly (May 17th): Hon Hai, Wiwynn, Quanta Computer, Asia Vital, Unimicron Tech

We analyzed TWSE short interest report for the past week and highlighted short interest changes in Hon Hai, Wiwynn, Quanta Computer, Asia Vital,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

HSTECH Index Rebalance: Float & Capping Changes Result in 8% Turnover & US$2.5bn Round-Trip Trade

Float and capping changes will result in one-way turnover of 8% and in a round-trip trade of HK$19.2bn (US$2.46bn). Li Auto is the largest passive...

Brian Freitas

EQD / NSE Volatility Update / 13-May-24 to 17-May-24

Vol-regime has switched to "High & Up" state. Reduce Short Gamma & Short Vega exposure. Short-Dated IVs softer on account of market holiday....

AceGama Advisors

Naspers X Prosus (NPN, PRX): Market Reacts Negatively to Appointment of CEO

A recap on the market reaction to the appointment of Bloisi as Naspers and Prosus CEO. Naspers ended the day down 4.09% on Friday. Prosus closed...

DMA

HKEX - Revenue Down, Investment Income Down, Operating Costs Up, Will It All Reverse?

The direction of most line items are poor and this is not likely to reverse. The top line decline is especially severe as is average daily...

Daniel Tabbush

TWSE Short Interest Weekly (May 17th): Hon Hai, Wiwynn, Quanta Computer, Asia Vital, Unimicron Tech

We analyzed TWSE short interest report for the past week and highlighted short interest changes in Hon Hai, Wiwynn, Quanta Computer, Asia Vital,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

HSTECH Index Rebalance: Float & Capping Changes Result in 8% Turnover & US$2.5bn Round-Trip Trade

Float and capping changes will result in one-way turnover of 8% and in a round-trip trade of HK$19.2bn (US$2.46bn). Li Auto is the largest passive...

Brian Freitas

EQD / NSE Volatility Update / 13-May-24 to 17-May-24

Vol-regime has switched to "High & Up" state. ​Reduce Short Gamma & Short Vega exposure. Short-Dated IVs softer on account of market holiday....

AceGama Advisors

Naspers X Prosus (NPN, PRX): Market Reacts Negatively to Appointment of CEO

A recap on the market reaction to the appointment of Bloisi as Naspers and Prosus CEO. Naspers ended the day down 4.09% on Friday. Prosus closed...

DMA

Vol-regime has switched to "High & Up" state. Reduce Short Gamma & Short Vega exposure. Short-Dated IVs softer on account of market holiday....