Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>DC company share prices are rolling over, foreshadowing increasing pressure on their hyperscaler customers.  Since the July swoon in semiconductor stocks, the DC sector has underperformed both hyperscalers and semiconductors.</li>
<li>DC players face strong headwinds on multiple fronts, including high leverage/circular financing, supply chain delays, public opposition, and questions about aggressive forecasts of future compute demand.</li>
<li>Leverage is the most prominent risk in the DC sector, with questions looming about completion dates and customers' ability to meet their contracted offtake agreements.</li>
</ul>


DC company share prices are rolling over, foreshadowing increasing pressure on their hyperscaler customers.  Since the July swoon in semiconductor stocks, the DC sector has underperformed both hyperscalers and semiconductors.
DC players face strong headwinds on multiple fronts, including high leverage/circular financing, supply chain delays, public opposition, and questions about aggressive forecasts of future compute demand.
Leverage is the most prominent risk in the DC sector, with questions looming about completion dates and customers' ability to meet their contracted offtake agreements.


DATA CENTER SECTOR: From the Tip of the Spear to Canary in the Coal Mine

Director, Sentiment Matters

Lars Kreckel

Director

The mood of the market, mapped and decoded

Sentiment Matters

Investor sentiment is the overall mood of investors - how bullish or bearish they are on a market or asset.

Sentiment is part of every investor’s investment process. Whether for macro investors, stock pickers, or thematic investors, it matters whether a position is consensus or contrarian.

<ul>
<li>
Buy Side Sentiment Tracker: we aggregate asset-allocation views from 54 top asset managers across 73 assets, based on 1,400+ individual views.</li>
<li>
Bullish, but not extreme: Risk appetite is high and rising, yet equity downgrades and resilient sovereign demand show the Buy Side is far from universally risk-on.</li>
<li>
Max Contrarian: Infrastructure, Industrial Metals and Gold are most popular; Swiss Franc, Cash and Consumer Staples are least popular.</li>
</ul>



Buy Side Sentiment Tracker: we aggregate asset-allocation views from 54 top asset managers across 73 assets, based on 1,400+ individual views.

Bullish, but not extreme: Risk appetite is high and rising, yet equity downgrades and resilient sovereign demand show the Buy Side is far from universally risk-on.

Max Contrarian: Infrastructure, Industrial Metals and Gold are most popular; Swiss Franc, Cash and Consumer Staples are least popular.


Sentiment Matters: Buy Side Sentiment Tracker - October 2026

Research from Redeye, Redeye AB

Redeye

Research from Redeye

Redeye AB

Specialists in innovative and fast-growing Nordic companies within Life Science and Technology.

Redeye is the next generation equity research and investment banking company, specialized in Life Science and Technology. We are the leading provider of Corporate Broking and Corporate Finance in these sectors.

Our clients are innovative growth companies in the Nordics and we use a unique Rating model based on a value based investment philosophy. Redeye was founded 1999 in Stockholm and is regulated by the Swedish Financial Authority (Finansinspektionen).

Equity Bottom-Up

CI Games SE is a Poland-based company engaged in the computer games industry. The Company specializes in the production and distribution of various computer and console games. The Company is a publisher and representative of foreign producers as well. The Company’s product portfolio includes a range of games genres, such as shooters, simulators and Role Playing Games (RPG) with titles such as Sniper Ghost Warrior, Dogfight 1942 or The Lords of the Fallen among others. The company operates a number of subsidiaries, including United Label SA, CI Games USA Inc, Business Area Sp z o o, Business Area Sp z o o Sp j, CI Games SA Sp j, CI Games UK Ltd, CI Games Mediterranean Projects SL, and CI Games Bucharest Studio SRL.

<ul><li>Redeye provides a review following CI Games' Q2 report, which came in well above our estimates, driven by continued strong sales of LOTF 2023.</li><li>Since our last review, the company has also announced that it is moving the release of LOTF II to Q1 2027, a decision we view positively.</li><li>We present an updated fundamental value (base case) and our new fair value of PLN4.2, with the share currently screening as "Cheap".</li></ul>

Redeye provides a review following CI Games' Q2 report, which came in well above our estimates, driven by continued strong sales of LOTF 2023.Since our last review, the company has also announced that it is moving the release of LOTF II to Q1 2027, a decision we view positively.We present an updated fundamental value (base case) and our new fair value of PLN4.2, with the share currently screening as "Cheap".

CI Games (Q2 Review): Timing is everything

<ul>
<li>
Treasuries Sentiment has turned sharply bearish, but not extreme. The SMA sits around the 30th percentile, still above its historical buy threshold.</li>
<li>
The underlying picture is mixed. Momentum and some speculative positioning are very bearish, while buy-side sentiment, options, analyst expectations and flows remain closer to neutral.</li>
<li>
This is not broad capitulation. Price action has been persistently poor rather than disorderly, leaving room for sentiment to deteriorate further before a stronger contrarian signal emerges.</li>
</ul>



Treasuries Sentiment has turned sharply bearish, but not extreme. The SMA sits around the 30th percentile, still above its historical buy threshold.

The underlying picture is mixed. Momentum and some speculative positioning are very bearish, while buy-side sentiment, options, analyst expectations and flows remain closer to neutral.

This is not broad capitulation. Price action has been persistently poor rather than disorderly, leaving room for sentiment to deteriorate further before a stronger contrarian signal emerges.


Sentiment Matters: US Treasuries Bearish, But Not Capitulation

Equity Long-Short

Mo Aziz

<ul>
<li>
The bond sell-off is global, not rerouted: 10-year yields are up 66-141bp in 12 months across Japan, Germany, the UK and the US. No developed market bond market gave refuge.</li>
<li>
The cash pile is a myth. US money funds are down US$90bn from their 2 Sep peak; equity funds took in US$79bn in the week to 16 Sep.</li>
<li>
Payrolls missed (+29k vs 90k), yet the 10-year closed at 5.27%. Gold broke the US$4,200 kill switch: NEUTRAL. Own TIPS in thirds; hedge dollar exposure if DXY fails at 102.13.</li>
</ul>



The bond sell-off is global, not rerouted: 10-year yields are up 66-141bp in 12 months across Japan, Germany, the UK and the US. No developed market bond market gave refuge.

The cash pile is a myth. US money funds are down US$90bn from their 2 Sep peak; equity funds took in US$79bn in the week to 16 Sep.

Payrolls missed (+29k vs 90k), yet the 10-year closed at 5.27%. Gold broke the US$4,200 kill switch: NEUTRAL. Own TIPS in thirds; hedge dollar exposure if DXY fails at 102.13.


Asset Allocation Strategy: Bond Sell-Off, No Cash Pile, Gold Stopped Out, TIPS Over the U.S. Dollar