Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Quanta Computer Inc. manufactures and markets notebook computers and related peripheral equipment.

<ul>
<li>The TIP Taiwan Select High Dividend ETF (00919 TW) tracks the TIP Customized Taiwan Select High Dividend Index and has an AUM of TWD 403bn (US$12.8bn).</li>
<li>We forecast 8 changes a side at the December rebalance with an estimated one-way turnover of 30.6% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$7.9bn.</li>
<li>The forecast adds have outperformed the forecast deletes over the last couple of weeks and we expect the adds to continue outperforming the deletes over the next few days.</li>
</ul>


The TIP Taiwan Select High Dividend ETF (00919 TW) tracks the TIP Customized Taiwan Select High Dividend Index and has an AUM of TWD 403bn (US$12.8bn).
We forecast 8 changes a side at the December rebalance with an estimated one-way turnover of 30.6% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$7.9bn.
The forecast adds have outperformed the forecast deletes over the last couple of weeks and we expect the adds to continue outperforming the deletes over the next few days.


TIP Customized Taiwan Select High Dividend Index Rebal Preview: 8 Changes; US$8bn Trade

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd. manufactures integrated circuits based on its proprietary designs.  The Company offers a comprehensive set of integrated circuit fabrication processes to manufacture CMOS logic, mixed-mode, volatile and non-volatile memory and BiCMOS chips.  Taiwan Semiconductor is an affiliate of Philips Electronics N.V.

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR (TSM US)

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

<ul>
<li>TSMC: +27.1% Premium; Increased to More Historically Extreme Level; Deeper in Short Range</li>
<li>UMC: +2.3% Premium; Good Level to Open a Short of The Spread</li>
<li>ASE: +2.3% Premium; Wait Better Long Opportunity Near Parity or Below</li>
</ul>


TSMC: +27.1% Premium; Increased to More Historically Extreme Level; Deeper in Short Range
UMC: +2.3% Premium; Good Level to Open a Short of The Spread
ASE: +2.3% Premium; Wait Better Long Opportunity Near Parity or Below


Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC ADR Spread Deeper in Historically Rare Zone

Silicon Motion Technology / Equity Bottom-Up

Silicon Motion Technology Corporation is a semiconductor company that designs, develops, and markets semiconductor products for the multimedia consumer electronics market. The Company's products include controllers used in mobile storage media and multimedia systems on a chip.

<ul>
<li>Four growth drivers ramping simultaneously: PCIe5 targeting 40% market share, NAND makers increased outsourcing of controller design, automotive segment approaching 10% of revenue, and datacenter products approaching 5-10% of revenue.</li>
<li>Near-Term catalysts compelling as memory supply tightness drives controller outsourcing and gross margins approach 49-50%.</li>
<li>19x 2026E PER represents good value if company hits targets. While stock carries market pullback risk, we nevertheless maintain our Structural Long rating due to multi-year growth in view.</li>
</ul>


Four growth drivers ramping simultaneously: PCIe5 targeting 40% market share, NAND makers increased outsourcing of controller design, automotive segment approaching 10% of revenue, and datacenter products approaching 5-10% of revenue.
Near-Term catalysts compelling as memory supply tightness drives controller outsourcing and gross margins approach 49-50%.
19x 2026E PER represents good value if company hits targets. While stock carries market pullback risk, we nevertheless maintain our Structural Long rating due to multi-year growth in view.


Silicon Motion (SIMO US): Multiple Growth Drivers Converging Into 2026E

Quantitative Researcher, MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Quantitative Researcher

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Derivatives

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, Ltd. manufactures and markets integrated circuits. The Company provides the following services: wafer manufacturing, wafer probing, assembly and testing, mask production, and design services. TSMC's ICs are used in computer, communication, consumer electronics, automotive, and industrial equipment industries.

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (2330 TT)

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-manufacturing-company" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11230:1" rel="noopener">TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (2330 TT)</a> delivered stellar returns this year, but after peaking in early November and pulling back all month, we see downside risk persisting.</li>
<li>We hypothesize the current rally may be a bear rally. If correct, our models indicate TSMC has nearly depleted this rebound and downside risk looms.</li>
<li>If we are wrong, TSMC could continue this rally to 1483-1581, the details as always are discussed in the insight.</li>
</ul>



TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (2330 TT) delivered stellar returns this year, but after peaking in early November and pulling back all month, we see downside risk persisting.
We hypothesize the current rally may be a bear rally. If correct, our models indicate TSMC has nearly depleted this rebound and downside risk looms.
If we are wrong, TSMC could continue this rally to 1483-1581, the details as always are discussed in the insight.


TSMC (2330 TT) Tactical Outlook After November's Pullback: Further Downside Risk Remains

<ul>
<li>Japan’s Rapidus Moves Ahead With 1.4nm Plans... TSMC Impact? -- Latest and Past Analysis</li>
<li>PC Monitor: Latest Dell/HP Results Support PC Up-Cycle Into 2026E </li>
<li>TechChain Insights: Factory Visit with One of Taiwan's Critical Battery Suppliers  </li>
</ul>


Japan’s Rapidus Moves Ahead With 1.4nm Plans... TSMC Impact? -- Latest and Past Analysis
PC Monitor: Latest Dell/HP Results Support PC Up-Cycle Into 2026E 
TechChain Insights: Factory Visit with One of Taiwan's Critical Battery Suppliers  


Taiwan Tech Weekly: Rapidus Making Progress... TSMC Impact; Latest PC Results Support 2026E Up-Cycle