Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors, Fabricated Knowledge

Douglas O'Laughlin

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors

Fabricated Knowledge

Learn more about the world's most important manufactured product. Meaningful insight, timely analysis, and an occasional investment idea.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<p>Alphawave reported last week.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>The results were not good; they were great.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>I actually am excited to see Tony and the team execute like this. Bookings are growing, and while revenue has not come out yet, it seems very likely they will hit their 2023 revenue estimates.</p>
<div></div>
</li>
</ul>



Alphawave reported last week.


The results were not good; they were great.


I actually am excited to see Tony and the team execute like this. Bookings are growing, and while revenue has not come out yet, it seems very likely they will hit their 2023 revenue estimates.




Alphawave, TSMC and Lam Research Follow-up, DISCO and Lasertec

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

<ul>
<li>TSMC reported earnings. They beat Q2 estimates, but importantly they guided down Q3 and FY 2023 estimates.</li>
<li>The Q2 beat was widely expected regarding revenue, given that TSMC reports monthly revenue, but the Q3 guide was not.</li>
<li>The midpoint of the guidance has the year-over-year decline decelerating, which I didn’t expect. Moreover, the -10% annual guide throws some water on the second-half recovery. Yes, the second half will be higher than the first, but the recovery is much more muted than historical. And what’s more, margins are looking worse for N3 than a typical node.</li>
</ul>


TSMC reported earnings. They beat Q2 estimates, but importantly they guided down Q3 and FY 2023 estimates.
The Q2 beat was widely expected regarding revenue, given that TSMC reports monthly revenue, but the Q3 guide was not.
The midpoint of the guidance has the year-over-year decline decelerating, which I didn’t expect. Moreover, the -10% annual guide throws some water on the second-half recovery. Yes, the second half will be higher than the first, but the recovery is much more muted than historical. And what’s more, margins are looking worse for N3 than a typical node.


TSMC Sees Continued Weakness, and EUV's Quandary (ASML)

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

<ul>
<li>Q1’23 revenues of ¥558.2 billion, up 19% sequentially and up 1% YoY</li>
<li>FY24 outlook down 23% YoY with H2 showing a modest improvement compared to H1</li>
<li>R&amp;D &amp; CapEx investment increasing significantly while YoY revenue set to decline by 23%</li>
</ul>


Q1’23 revenues of ¥558.2 billion, up 19% sequentially and up 1% YoY
FY24 outlook down 23% YoY with H2 showing a modest improvement compared to H1
R&amp;D &amp; CapEx investment increasing significantly while YoY revenue set to decline by 23%


Tokyo Electron. Betting Big On MAGIC Despite The Downturn

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Silicon valley startup Substrate made waves two weeks ago when they emerged from stealth mode to announce a revolutionary new tool they claim will rival ASML’s EUV lithography capability</li>
<li>Substrate simultaneously plans to build next-generation semiconductor fabs to return America to dominance in semiconductor production and will use their technology—a new form of advanced X-ray lithography—to power them.</li>
<li>For a three year old startup, whos CEO has zero documented experience of semiconductors or lithography, these are bold claims indeed. This should be interesting!</li>
</ul>


Silicon valley startup Substrate made waves two weeks ago when they emerged from stealth mode to announce a revolutionary new tool they claim will rival ASML’s EUV lithography capability
Substrate simultaneously plans to build next-generation semiconductor fabs to return America to dominance in semiconductor production and will use their technology—a new form of advanced X-ray lithography—to power them.
For a three year old startup, whos CEO has zero documented experience of semiconductors or lithography, these are bold claims indeed. This should be interesting!


Substrate. ASML, TSMC Slayer Or Ideological Pipe Dream?

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Tekscend Photomask / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tekscend-photomask-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45819:1" rel="noopener">Tekscend Photomask (429A JP)</a>, a manufacturer and distributor of semiconductor photomasks, raised around US$900m in its Japan IPO.</li>
<li>TP is a global provider of photomasks and related support services. It has been the leader in the merchant photomask market in terms of sales since 2016.</li>
<li>In our previous note, we looked at its past performance and valuations. In this note, we will talk about the trading dynamics.</li>
</ul>



Tekscend Photomask (429A JP), a manufacturer and distributor of semiconductor photomasks, raised around US$900m in its Japan IPO.
TP is a global provider of photomasks and related support services. It has been the leader in the merchant photomask market in terms of sales since 2016.
In our previous note, we looked at its past performance and valuations. In this note, we will talk about the trading dynamics.


Tekscend Photomask IPO Trading - Priced at the Top, but Still Relatively Cheap

United States

Lam Research Corporation manufactures, markets, and services semiconductor processing equipment used in the making of integrated circuits.  The Company's products are used to deposit special films on a silicon wafer and etch away portions of various films to create a circuit design.  Lam sells its products around the world.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Lam Research (LRCX US)

Alphawave, TSMC and Lam Research Follow-up, DISCO and Lasertec

Alphawave reported last week. The results were not good; they were great. I actually am excited to see Tony and the team execute like this....

Fabricated Knowledge

TSMC Sees Continued Weakness, and EUV's Quandary (ASML)

TSMC sees further inventory correction, I see earnings disappointments. ASML has a quandary if the entire ecosystem is trying to use EUV.

Fabricated Knowledge

Tokyo Electron. Betting Big On MAGIC Despite The Downturn

Q1’23 revenues of ¥558.2 billion, up 19% sequentially and up 1% YoY. FY24 outlook down 23% YoY with H2 marginally better than H1.R&D & CapEx...

William Keating

Substrate. ASML, TSMC Slayer Or Ideological Pipe Dream?

For a three year old startup, whos CEO has zero documented experience of semiconductors or lithography, these are bold claims indeed. This should...

William Keating

Tekscend Photomask IPO Trading - Priced at the Top, but Still Relatively Cheap

Tekscend Photomask (429A JP), a manufacturer and distributor of semiconductor photomasks, raised around US$900m in its Japan IPO. In this note, we...

Sumeet Singh

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)