Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.</li>
<li>
Highlights: Currently eight pair trade opportunities persist across three markets and four sectors.
</li>
<li>
Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.</li>
</ul>



Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.

Highlights: Currently eight pair trade opportunities persist across three markets and four sectors.


Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.


Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (12 Oct 2026)

Iron Ore, Copper, Equities, Mint Finance

Umang Agrawal

Iron Ore, Copper, Equities

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Commodities

<ul>
<li>China's steel sector is showing fresh signs of strain, with softer production, shrinking profitability, and growing iron ore stockpiles clouding demand prospects.</li>
<li>Heavy put positioning at the 90, 95, and 100 strikes continue to anchor the downside, while growing call interest at 104 caps upside expectations.</li>
<li>The sharp rise in August put positioning highlights near-term caution, though later expiries suggest options traders expect conditions to stabilise.</li>
</ul>


China's steel sector is showing fresh signs of strain, with softer production, shrinking profitability, and growing iron ore stockpiles clouding demand prospects.
Heavy put positioning at the 90, 95, and 100 strikes continue to anchor the downside, while growing call interest at 104 caps upside expectations.
The sharp rise in August put positioning highlights near-term caution, though later expiries suggest options traders expect conditions to stabilise.


Iron Ore Loses a Key Floor. Are Options Markets Expecting Worse Ahead?

<ul>
<li>Iron ore prices struggled to sustain early-May gains as deteriorating steel margins, softer downstream demand, and rising shipments weighed on market sentiment.</li>
<li>Rising skew across near-dated expiries points to growing demand for downside protection despite overall implied volatility softening toward month-end.</li>
<li>Seasonal trends suggest iron ore prices would typically lose momentum after May, but delays in resolving the Middle East conflict could keep volatility elevated.</li>
</ul>


Iron ore prices struggled to sustain early-May gains as deteriorating steel margins, softer downstream demand, and rising shipments weighed on market sentiment.
Rising skew across near-dated expiries points to growing demand for downside protection despite overall implied volatility softening toward month-end.
Seasonal trends suggest iron ore prices would typically lose momentum after May, but delays in resolving the Middle East conflict could keep volatility elevated.


Iron Ore Monthly Derivatives Chartbook (May 2026)

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

Shenton Research

Shenton Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Oct 2nd (reported today). The aggregated short interest was USD50.5bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Northern Star Resources, Alcoa, Wesfarmers, Brambles, Suncorp.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Oct 2nd (reported today). The aggregated short interest was USD50.5bn.
We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Northern Star Resources, Alcoa, Wesfarmers, Brambles, Suncorp.


ASX Short Interest Weekly (Oct 2nd): Northern Star Resources, Alcoa, Wesfarmers, Brambles, Suncorp

<ul>
<li>Rio Tinto’s strong production growth alongside weather-driven shipment disruptions highlights resilient operations, with partial recovery expected to support near-term supply outlook. </li>
<li>Bullish MACD crossover signals iron ore’s early momentum recovery, while persistent uptrend keeps upside bias intact, increasing likelihood of a move toward upper Bollinger band.</li>
<li>The DCE-SGX spread stabilises above the 9-day MA but lacks momentum, with balanced positioning indicating limited conviction and no clear directional bias near term. </li>
</ul>


Rio Tinto’s strong production growth alongside weather-driven shipment disruptions highlights resilient operations, with partial recovery expected to support near-term supply outlook. 
Bullish MACD crossover signals iron ore’s early momentum recovery, while persistent uptrend keeps upside bias intact, increasing likelihood of a move toward upper Bollinger band.
The DCE-SGX spread stabilises above the 9-day MA but lacks momentum, with balanced positioning indicating limited conviction and no clear directional bias near term. 


Firm Demand and Supply Disruptions Keep Iron Ore’s Uptrend Well Anchored

Australia

Rio Tinto Limited is an international mining company.  The Company has interests in mining for aluminum, borax, coal, copper, gold, iron ore, lead, silver, tin, uranium, zinc, titanium dioxide feedstock, diamonds, talc and zircon. Dually-listed company with RIO LN.

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Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU)

Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (12 Oct 2026)

Discover eight pair trade opportunities across three markets and four sectors using statistical mean-reversion methodology for actionable insights.

Gaudenz Schneider

Iron Ore Loses a Key Floor. Are Options Markets Expecting Worse Ahead?

Managed money is trimming bullish exposure, while options traders continue paying up for protection against further iron ore weakness.

Mint Finance

Iron Ore Monthly Derivatives Chartbook (May 2026)

Implied volatility retreated into month-end, though persistent demand for higher-strike calls suggests upside risk concerns have not fully faded.

Mint Finance

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Oct 2nd): Northern Star Resources, Alcoa, Wesfarmers, Brambles, Suncorp

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in Northern Star Resources, Alcoa, Wesfarmers,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Firm Demand and Supply Disruptions Keep Iron Ore’s Uptrend Well Anchored

Pre May Day restocking and rising steel mill utilisation sustain demand, while supply disruptions tighten availability, reinforcing underlying...

Mint Finance

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (12 Oct 2026)

​Discover eight pair trade opportunities across three markets and four sectors using statistical mean-reversion methodology for actionable insights.

Gaudenz Schneider

Iron Ore Loses a Key Floor. Are Options Markets Expecting Worse Ahead?

Managed money is trimming bullish exposure, while options traders continue paying up for protection against further iron ore weakness.

Mint Finance

Iron Ore Monthly Derivatives Chartbook (May 2026)

Implied volatility retreated into month-end, though persistent demand for higher-strike calls suggests upside risk concerns have not fully faded.

Mint Finance

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Oct 2nd): Northern Star Resources, Alcoa, Wesfarmers, Brambles, Suncorp

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in Northern Star Resources, Alcoa, Wesfarmers,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Firm Demand and Supply Disruptions Keep Iron Ore’s Uptrend Well Anchored

Pre May Day restocking and rising steel mill utilisation sustain demand, while supply disruptions tighten availability, reinforcing underlying...

Mint Finance

Discover eight pair trade opportunities across three markets and four sectors using statistical mean-reversion methodology for actionable insights.