Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The iron ore cost curve has risen by 5-10 USD/ton since the blockage of the Straits of Hormuz, which has put upward pressure on diesel prices (15%-20% of mining costs).</li>
<li>Chinese blast furnace capacity utilization is now trending towards 90%, leading to mill margins inflecting into positive territory, based on commentary provided by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vale-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23731:1" rel="noopener">Vale (VALE US)</a> in its Q1 results.</li>
<li>Iran's steel/iron ore production (30/~45 million tons respectively) has stalled, and Simandou's ramp-up guidance (10-15 million tons for FY26) is slower than initially anticipated by the market. </li>
</ul>


The iron ore cost curve has risen by 5-10 USD/ton since the blockage of the Straits of Hormuz, which has put upward pressure on diesel prices (15%-20% of mining costs).
Chinese blast furnace capacity utilization is now trending towards 90%, leading to mill margins inflecting into positive territory, based on commentary provided by Vale (VALE US) in its Q1 results.
Iran's steel/iron ore production (30/~45 million tons respectively) has stalled, and Simandou's ramp-up guidance (10-15 million tons for FY26) is slower than initially anticipated by the market. 


Iron Ore: Simandou Supply Disappoints/ What's Happening To The Cost Curve/ Chinese Mills Profitable?

Bayon Financial

Graeme Cunningham

Independent Insight Provider

Bayon Financial provides industry and company analysis focusing on mid and small cap equity research coverage across a range of sectors including mining, financials and telecoms.

<ul>
<li>BHP reported Q1/26 operational results broadly on track with full year guidance, with output across the divisions ranging from 20% to 27% of the full year estimate</li>
<li>While production of copper, iron ore, alumina, silver and gold saw strong gains yoy, aluminum output was near flat, bauxite declined, and some divisions fell qoq on weather issues</li>
<li>We see rising risks to both iron ore and copper prices which are unlikely be offset by strong aluminum, with our valuation well below the consensus low-end and market price</li>
</ul>


BHP reported Q1/26 operational results broadly on track with full year guidance, with output across the divisions ranging from 20% to 27% of the full year estimate
While production of copper, iron ore, alumina, silver and gold saw strong gains yoy, aluminum output was near flat, bauxite declined, and some divisions fell qoq on weather issues
We see rising risks to both iron ore and copper prices which are unlikely be offset by strong aluminum, with our valuation well below the consensus low-end and market price


Rio Tinto: Q1/26 Operations On Track With Guidance

Financial News, Analysis and Data, FNArena

FNArena

Financial News, Analysis and Data

Online financial media company focused on Australian equities, with a global perspective

<ul><li>Rio Tinto&rsquo;s March quarter copper production beat forecasts, offset by a cyclonic period for iron ore.</li><li> Rio Tinto&rsquo;s March quarter production a net beat thanks to copper Weather was an offset in the Pilbara and elsewhere across the portfolio Costs increasing due to diesel prices Aluminium benefitting from Middle East disruption</li></ul>

Rio Tinto&rsquo;s March quarter copper production beat forecasts, offset by a cyclonic period for iron ore. Rio Tinto&rsquo;s March quarter production a net beat thanks to copper Weather was an offset in the Pilbara and elsewhere across the portfolio Costs increasing due to diesel prices Aluminium benefitting from Middle East disruption

<ul>
<li>Aluminum price volatility has surged on the conflict in the Middle East as the region comprises a significant proportion of smelting capacity for the metal </li>
<li>Pricing in higher 2026E aluminum has boosted our valuation moderately, but we still see risks to copper, which has started to roll over, and iron ore, inline with consensus</li>
<li>Our SOTP valuation of Rio implies the market has been pricing in somewhat aggressive multiples, with a decline to only moderate, not bearish, levels, still implying downside</li>
</ul>


Aluminum price volatility has surged on the conflict in the Middle East as the region comprises a significant proportion of smelting capacity for the metal 
Pricing in higher 2026E aluminum has boosted our valuation moderately, but we still see risks to copper, which has started to roll over, and iron ore, inline with consensus
Our SOTP valuation of Rio implies the market has been pricing in somewhat aggressive multiples, with a decline to only moderate, not bearish, levels, still implying downside


Rio Tinto: Volatile Aluminum and SOTP Downside Considerations

<ul>
<li>Copper revenue surged +47.9% YoY in FY2025 to US$13.7bn, now accounting for 23.8% of group revenue (vs. 17.3% in FY2023), the highest copper revenue share in at least 17 years.</li>
<li>Copper EBITDA reached a record US$7.4bn in FY2025, representing 32.9% of group EBITDA —up from 15.7% just two years prior — signalling a fundamental mix shift within the portfolio.</li>
<li>Management explicitly declined a full-perimeter merger with Glencore on value-discipline grounds, reinforcing its strategic focus on organic copper growth and selective partnering in Chile and South America.</li>
</ul>


Copper revenue surged +47.9% YoY in FY2025 to US$13.7bn, now accounting for 23.8% of group revenue (vs. 17.3% in FY2023), the highest copper revenue share in at least 17 years.
Copper EBITDA reached a record US$7.4bn in FY2025, representing 32.9% of group EBITDA —up from 15.7% just two years prior — signalling a fundamental mix shift within the portfolio.
Management explicitly declined a full-perimeter merger with Glencore on value-discipline grounds, reinforcing its strategic focus on organic copper growth and selective partnering in Chile and South America.


THE COPPER CATALYST: Rio Tinto's Strategic Pivot Toward Copper-Led Growth

Australia

Rio Tinto Limited is an international mining company.  The Company has interests in mining for aluminum, borax, coal, copper, gold, iron ore, lead, silver, tin, uranium, zinc, titanium dioxide feedstock, diamonds, talc and zircon. Dually-listed company with RIO LN.

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Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU)

Iron Ore: Simandou Supply Disappoints/ What's Happening To The Cost Curve/ Chinese Mills Profitable?

China's mill margins are turning positive, but watch the risks: diesel shortages are squeezing the cost curve, and Simandou supply is...

Sameer Taneja

Rio Tinto: Q1/26 Operations On Track With Guidance

Q1/26 operations were strong yoy, with some weakness qoq on weather, but we see risks to iron ore and copper prices, and our below-the-low-end-of...

Graeme Cunningham

Copper Offsets Iron Ore For Rio Tinto

Rio Tinto’s March quarter copper production beat forecasts, offset by a cyclonic period for iron ore. Rio Tinto’s March quarter production a net...

FNArena

Rio Tinto: Volatile Aluminum and SOTP Downside Considerations

Pricing in higher aluminum has boosted our valuation, but our SOTP with moderate multiples still indicates downside and implies somewhat bullish...

Graeme Cunningham

THE COPPER CATALYST: Rio Tinto's Strategic Pivot Toward Copper-Led Growth

The race is on. Rio, BHP, Glencore & peers are all pivoting hard to copper as the energy transition supercharges demand. Who executes best will...

Sameer Taneja

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