Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

<ul>
<li>We anticipate Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US) can achieve a 25% growth in 2025.  </li>
<li>It is unsurprising for TSMC to dominate in AI, including the assembly and testing segments.  </li>
<li>Chinese companies are also involved in AI, but there hasn't been a recent spread as a result of U.S. sanctions.  </li>
</ul>


We anticipate Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US) can achieve a 25% growth in 2025.  
It is unsurprising for TSMC to dominate in AI, including the assembly and testing segments.  
Chinese companies are also involved in AI, but there hasn't been a recent spread as a result of U.S. sanctions.  


TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): 2025 Could Achieve 25% Yearly Growth.

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

<ul>
<li>Apple's 2nm Power Move with TSMC -- Beating Samsung Yet Again</li>
<li>Why TSMC's 2nm Will be Huge -- Extending Tech Lead vs. Samsung &amp; Major AI/Power Consumption Benefits for Customers</li>
<li>The Memory Decoupling Trade is Working -- Nanya Tech Underperforms SK Hynix</li>
</ul>


Apple's 2nm Power Move with TSMC -- Beating Samsung Yet Again
Why TSMC's 2nm Will be Huge -- Extending Tech Lead vs. Samsung &amp; Major AI/Power Consumption Benefits for Customers
The Memory Decoupling Trade is Working -- Nanya Tech Underperforms SK Hynix


Taiwan Tech Weekly: Apple’s TSMC 2nm Power Move Beats Samsung; Himax Ascends with TSMC/Nvidia Halos

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There are no constituent changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-vectors-semiconductor" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32807:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Vectors Semiconductor (SMH US)</a> ETF in December but there are a lot of float and capping changes.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 4.5% resulting in a one-way trade of US$1.1bn. Impact on the stocks is not big given they trade like water.</li>
<li>The selling in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/broadcom-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:998:1" rel="noopener">Broadcom</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nvidia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5891:1" rel="noopener">NVIDIA</a> will be amplified by selling from the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/technology-select-sector-spdr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27543:1" rel="noopener">Technology Select Sector SPDR (XLK US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/invesco-s-p-500-equal-weight-e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32932:1" rel="noopener">Invesco S&amp;P 500 Equal Weight E (RSP US)</a> ETFs. </li>
</ul>


There are no constituent changes for the VanEck Vectors Semiconductor (SMH US) ETF in December but there are a lot of float and capping changes.
Estimated one-way turnover is 4.5% resulting in a one-way trade of US$1.1bn. Impact on the stocks is not big given they trade like water.
The selling in Broadcom and NVIDIA will be amplified by selling from the Technology Select Sector SPDR (XLK US) and Invesco S&amp;P 500 Equal Weight E (RSP US) ETFs. 


MV US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index Rebalance: Round-Trip Trade Over US$2.2bn

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>The MV US Listed Semiconductor 25 index represents the performance of the biggest US-listed companies in the semiconductor industry.</li>
<li>There will be no index changes for the December 2024 rebal event.</li>
<li>We expect a one-way flow of US$1.3bn for December 2024, which translates to a turnover of 5.4%.</li>
</ul>


The MV US Listed Semiconductor 25 index represents the performance of the biggest US-listed companies in the semiconductor industry.
There will be no index changes for the December 2024 rebal event.
We expect a one-way flow of US$1.3bn for December 2024, which translates to a turnover of 5.4%.


[Quiddity Index] MarketVector US Semiconductor Index Dec24 Rebal Results: Flow Expectations

Articles from Caixin Global, Caixin Global

Caixin Global

Articles from Caixin Global

Caixin is a media group dedicated to providing financial and business news through periodicals, online content, mobile apps, conferences, books and TV/video programs. Caixin aims to blaze a trail that helps traditional media prosper in the new media age through integrated multimedia platforms.

News from Caixin

<ul><li>Nvidia Corp. on Tuesday asserted its commitment to fair competition, after China’s market regulators opened an antitrust investigation into the U.S. chip giant over suspected violations linked to a 2020 deal.</li><li>The probe, announced on Monday by the State Administration for Market Regulation (SAMR), concerns Nvidia’s compliance with the country’s Anti-Monopoly Law and conditions tied to its $6.9 billion acquisition of Israeli network-equipment maker Mellanox Technologies Ltd.</li><li>The deal — the largest acquisition Nvidia has ever made — faced intense scrutiny from Chinese regulators, who conditionally approved it after nearly a year-long process.</li></ul>

Nvidia Corp. on Tuesday asserted its commitment to fair competition, after China’s market regulators opened an antitrust investigation into the U.S. chip giant over suspected violations linked to a 2020 deal.The probe, announced on Monday by the State Administration for Market Regulation (SAMR), concerns Nvidia’s compliance with the country’s Anti-Monopoly Law and conditions tied to its $6.9 billion acquisition of Israeli network-equipment maker Mellanox Technologies Ltd.The deal — the largest acquisition Nvidia has ever made — faced intense scrutiny from Chinese regulators, who conditionally approved it after nearly a year-long process.

Nvidia Asserts Commitment to Fair Competition Amid China Antitrust Probe 

United States

NVIDIA Corporation designs, develops, and markets three dimensional (3D) graphics processors and related software.  The Company's products provide interactive 3D graphics to the mainstream personal computer market.

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NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): 2025 Could Achieve 25% Yearly Growth.

TSMC expected to achieve 25% growth by 2025, dominating in AI despite Chinese competition hindered by U.S. sanction actions.

Patrick Liao

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Apple’s TSMC 2nm Power Move Beats Samsung; Himax Ascends with TSMC/Nvidia Halos

Apple secures competitive edge with TSMC's 2nm tech. Why advanced packaging is the key competitive capability for tomorrow's chips; Himax is...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

MV US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index Rebalance: Round-Trip Trade Over US$2.2bn

Float and capping changes result in an estimated one-way turnover of 4.5% and a round-trip trade of US$2.2bn. Broadcom and Nvidia will also have...

Brian Freitas

[Quiddity Index] MarketVector US Semiconductor Index Dec24 Rebal Results: Flow Expectations

The MarketVectors US Semiconductor Index rebal was announced last Friday. There are no changes but capping leads to US$1.3bn of one-way flow on 20...

Travis Lundy

Nvidia Asserts Commitment to Fair Competition Amid China Antitrust Probe

Nvidia Corp. on Tuesday asserted its commitment to fair competition, after China’s market regulators opened an antitrust investigation into the...

Caixin Global

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): 2025 Could Achieve 25% Yearly Growth.

​TSMC expected to achieve 25% growth by 2025, dominating in AI despite Chinese competition hindered by U.S. sanction actions.

Patrick Liao

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Apple’s TSMC 2nm Power Move Beats Samsung; Himax Ascends with TSMC/Nvidia Halos

​Apple secures competitive edge with TSMC's 2nm tech. Why advanced packaging is the key competitive capability for tomorrow's chips; Himax is...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

MV US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index Rebalance: Round-Trip Trade Over US$2.2bn

Float and capping changes result in an estimated one-way turnover of 4.5% and a round-trip trade of US$2.2bn. Broadcom and Nvidia will also have...

Brian Freitas

[Quiddity Index] MarketVector US Semiconductor Index Dec24 Rebal Results: Flow Expectations

The MarketVectors US Semiconductor Index rebal was announced last Friday. There are no changes but capping leads to US$1.3bn of one-way flow on 20...

Travis Lundy

Nvidia Asserts Commitment to Fair Competition Amid China Antitrust Probe

Nvidia Corp. on Tuesday asserted its commitment to fair competition, after China’s market regulators opened an antitrust investigation into the...

Caixin Global

TSMC expected to achieve 25% growth by 2025, dominating in AI despite Chinese competition hindered by U.S. sanction actions.

Apple secures competitive edge with TSMC's 2nm tech. Why advanced packaging is the key competitive capability for tomorrow's chips; Himax is...