Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>TSMC: more restrictions on export to China. TSMC can’t make 2nm in US before 2028-29. Lawsuit in Arizona.</li>
<li>Korea: special chips act to give chipmakers subsidies and an exemption from a national cap on working hours. Korean engineers only work 52 hours / week. That’s a problem.</li>
<li>Amazon more in-house AI chips. Super Micro trying to avoid delisting. Smartphone ASP keep increasing because chip prices are increasing (ie Mediatek, Qualcomm). AI PC reaching 20% in 3Q214. </li>
</ul>


TSMC: more restrictions on export to China. TSMC can’t make 2nm in US before 2028-29. Lawsuit in Arizona.
Korea: special chips act to give chipmakers subsidies and an exemption from a national cap on working hours. Korean engineers only work 52 hours / week. That’s a problem.
Amazon more in-house AI chips. Super Micro trying to avoid delisting. Smartphone ASP keep increasing because chip prices are increasing (ie Mediatek, Qualcomm). AI PC reaching 20% in 3Q214. 


Tech News This Week: TSMC, Samsung, Amazon / Nvidia, Super Micro, Smartphone ASP Increasing, AI PC

<ul>
<li>ASML maintains its 2030 targets: revenue EUR44-60bn, Gross Margin 56-60%. But the narrative has changed, again. In 2022, it was Mature nodes (DUV) and EUV. In 2024, it's AI. </li>
<li>What's changed? Lower growth in Smartphone, PC, Auto. AI bigger than expected. Server DRAM and HBM is the major positive change. NAND is revised down sharply. It's actually believable. </li>
<li>The guidance implies Operating Profits growing between 9.5-17.5% Cagr over 2024-2030. That's pretty good but the stock is trading at 27x 2025 EPS, 22x 2026. No room for disappointment. </li>
</ul>


ASML maintains its 2030 targets: revenue EUR44-60bn, Gross Margin 56-60%. But the narrative has changed, again. In 2022, it was Mature nodes (DUV) and EUV. In 2024, it's AI. 
What's changed? Lower growth in Smartphone, PC, Auto. AI bigger than expected. Server DRAM and HBM is the major positive change. NAND is revised down sharply. It's actually believable. 
The guidance implies Operating Profits growing between 9.5-17.5% Cagr over 2024-2030. That's pretty good but the stock is trading at 27x 2025 EPS, 22x 2026. No room for disappointment. 


ASML Investor Day: Oops They Did It Again. Different Story, Same 2030 Targets.

Podcast On the Business of Semiconductors, The Circuit

The Circuit

Podcast On the Business of Semiconductors

A Podcast On the Business of Semiconductors. With Jay Goldberg and Ben Bajarin

<ul><li>ARM reported good numbers with steady guidance for the coming quarter.</li><li>Qualcomm's earnings performed well, but concerns exist over rising costs and potential loss of customers.</li><li>Uncertainty surrounds US government policies on semiconductor manufacturing and trade with China, impacting industry players like Intel and Nvidia.</li></ul><p><em>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.</em></p>

ARM reported good numbers with steady guidance for the coming quarter.Qualcomm's earnings performed well, but concerns exist over rising costs and potential loss of customers.Uncertainty surrounds US government policies on semiconductor manufacturing and trade with China, impacting industry players like Intel and Nvidia.This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Episode 93: Arm/QCOM Earnings, Trump Presidency Impact on Semis, NVDA Preview

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist, Objective Analysis

Jim Handy

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist

Objective Analysis

Objective Analysis offers third-party independent market research and data for the semiconductor industry and investors in the semiconductor industry.

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>AI spending is fueling today's semiconductor market, as generative AI demand falls into place</li>
<li>Hyperscale datacenters are doing the bulk of today's spending as they invest in advance of demand</li>
<li>These investments are falling into question, and spending is likely to level off or drop in 2025, leading to a dramatic semiconductor downturn</li>
</ul>


AI spending is fueling today's semiconductor market, as generative AI demand falls into place
Hyperscale datacenters are doing the bulk of today's spending as they invest in advance of demand
These investments are falling into question, and spending is likely to level off or drop in 2025, leading to a dramatic semiconductor downturn


2025 High Conviction: AI Chip Spend Slows

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

<ul><li>In a time of rapidly shifting global dynamics, NVIDIA finds itself in a delicate position amid escalating tensions between the United States, Taiwan, and China.</li><li>With Donald Trump’s return to office as the 47th President, his administration's potential tariffs on Taiwanese-made chips may spell significant implications for NVIDIA, one of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company’s (TSMC) key clients.</li><li>Trump’s administration has already criticized the U.S. CHIPS Act, calling out Taiwan for allegedly “stealing” America’s chip industry.</li></ul>

In a time of rapidly shifting global dynamics, NVIDIA finds itself in a delicate position amid escalating tensions between the United States, Taiwan, and China.With Donald Trump’s return to office as the 47th President, his administration's potential tariffs on Taiwanese-made chips may spell significant implications for NVIDIA, one of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company’s (TSMC) key clients.Trump’s administration has already criticized the U.S. CHIPS Act, calling out Taiwan for allegedly “stealing” America’s chip industry.

Is NVIDIA at Risk? Examining China Tensions and Their Impact on the Chip Giant

United States

NVIDIA Corporation designs, develops, and markets three dimensional (3D) graphics processors and related software.  The Company's products provide interactive 3D graphics to the mainstream personal computer market.

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NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)

Tech News This Week: TSMC, Samsung, Amazon / Nvidia, Super Micro, Smartphone ASP Increasing, AI PC

TSMC faces export restrictions to China. Korea offers subsidies to chipmakers, but faces labor issue. Amazon ramps up AI chip production. Chip...

Nicolas Baratte

ASML Investor Day: Oops They Did It Again. Different Story, Same 2030 Targets.

ASML maintains 2030 targets, growth driven by AI, DRAM / HBM and Logic. Lower growth for mature nodes and NAND. Operating profits expected to grow...

Nicolas Baratte

Episode 93: Arm/QCOM Earnings, Trump Presidency Impact on Semis, NVDA Preview

In this episode of The Circuit podcast, various semiconductor companies including ARM, Qualcomm, Intel, and Nvidia are discussed, with a focus on...

The Circuit

2025 High Conviction: AI Chip Spend Slows

AI spending is driving strong semiconductor growth today, but see why hyperscale spending, like 2000's Internet Bubble, is approaching an overbuilt...

Jim Handy

Is NVIDIA at Risk? Examining China Tensions and Their Impact on the Chip Giant

In a time of rapidly shifting global dynamics, NVIDIA finds itself in a delicate position amid escalating tensions between the United States,...

Baptista Research

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Tech News This Week: TSMC, Samsung, Amazon / Nvidia, Super Micro, Smartphone ASP Increasing, AI PC

​TSMC faces export restrictions to China. Korea offers subsidies to chipmakers, but faces labor issue. Amazon ramps up AI chip production. Chip...

Nicolas Baratte

ASML Investor Day: Oops They Did It Again. Different Story, Same 2030 Targets.

​ASML maintains 2030 targets, growth driven by AI, DRAM / HBM and Logic. Lower growth for mature nodes and NAND. Operating profits expected to grow...

Nicolas Baratte

Episode 93: Arm/QCOM Earnings, Trump Presidency Impact on Semis, NVDA Preview

In this episode of The Circuit podcast, various semiconductor companies including ARM, Qualcomm, Intel, and Nvidia are discussed, with a focus on...

The Circuit

2025 High Conviction: AI Chip Spend Slows

AI spending is driving strong semiconductor growth today, but see why hyperscale spending, like 2000's Internet Bubble, is approaching an overbuilt...

Jim Handy

Is NVIDIA at Risk? Examining China Tensions and Their Impact on the Chip Giant

In a time of rapidly shifting global dynamics, NVIDIA finds itself in a delicate position amid escalating tensions between the United States,...

Baptista Research

TSMC faces export restrictions to China. Korea offers subsidies to chipmakers, but faces labor issue. Amazon ramps up AI chip production. Chip...

ASML maintains 2030 targets, growth driven by AI, DRAM / HBM and Logic. Lower growth for mature nodes and NAND. Operating profits expected to grow...