Analyst - Media&Entertainment Sector, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Stan Zhao

Analyst - Media&Entertainment Sector

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Tesla's Cybercab is expected to be under $30,000 in price, with production costs of  ~$25,000 and operating costs of 30-40 cents per mile.</li>
<li>We found Baidu's robotaxi to be faces 50% higher daily total costs and runs a fleet of 600 autonomous vehicles.</li>
<li>To compete with Tesla’s Cybercab by 2026, Baidu must significantly reduce its operating costs. Tesla's lower price and efficiency could capture a larger market share.</li>
</ul>


Tesla's Cybercab is expected to be under $30,000 in price, with production costs of  ~$25,000 and operating costs of 30-40 cents per mile.
We found Baidu's robotaxi to be faces 50% higher daily total costs and runs a fleet of 600 autonomous vehicles.
To compete with Tesla’s Cybercab by 2026, Baidu must significantly reduce its operating costs. Tesla's lower price and efficiency could capture a larger market share.


A Comparison of Tesla’s Cybercab and Baidu’s Apollo Shows the Latter Must Improve

Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>TSMC and UMC reported large increase in Oct sales: +25%  and +13% MoM. Impressive, but within the big trends: TSMC high growth plateau. UMC slow recovery period.</li>
<li>Semiconductor global sales growth is accelerating slightly: up 19% YoY over the previous 6 months and +23% YoY in Sept. Reflecting both sustained AI growth and a mass-markets bottoming out.</li>
<li>TSMC: valuations are high, not extreme, the stock is not breaking the NT$1,100 barrier. UMC at average valuations, at the bottom of its NT$45-55 trading range, maybe a short-term trade.</li>
</ul>


TSMC and UMC reported large increase in Oct sales: +25%  and +13% MoM. Impressive, but within the big trends: TSMC high growth plateau. UMC slow recovery period.
Semiconductor global sales growth is accelerating slightly: up 19% YoY over the previous 6 months and +23% YoY in Sept. Reflecting both sustained AI growth and a mass-markets bottoming out.
TSMC: valuations are high, not extreme, the stock is not breaking the NT$1,100 barrier. UMC at average valuations, at the bottom of its NT$45-55 trading range, maybe a short-term trade.


TSMC, UMC, Global Semi Monthly Sales: Small Acceleration

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seven-i-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1041:1" rel="noopener">Seven &amp; I (3382 JP)</a> selling <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seven-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16063:1" rel="noopener">Seven Bank (8410 JP)</a> is obvious. It has been obvious. It is non-core. It's always been non-core. It was made  clear in previous Strategy announcements,</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pccw-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:873:1" rel="noopener">PCCW Ltd (8 HK)</a>'s premium to NAV is unjustified. However reversing the stub has not been going to plan of late, as the NAV premium continues to widen.</li>
<li>Mavcom HAS approved the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/malaysia-airports-holdings-bhd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:117:1" rel="noopener">Malaysia Airports Holdings (MAHB MK)</a> deal. But still welcomes public consultation. So, approved or not?</li>
</ul>



Seven &amp; I (3382 JP) selling Seven Bank (8410 JP) is obvious. It has been obvious. It is non-core. It's always been non-core. It was made  clear in previous Strategy announcements,

PCCW Ltd (8 HK)'s premium to NAV is unjustified. However reversing the stub has not been going to plan of late, as the NAV premium continues to widen.
Mavcom HAS approved the Malaysia Airports Holdings (MAHB MK) deal. But still welcomes public consultation. So, approved or not?


Last Week in Event SPACE: Seven & I/Seven Bank, PCCW, Malaysia Airports, I'rom Group

ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

PT Metrodata Electronics / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/metrodata-electronic-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7184:1" rel="noopener">PT Metrodata Electronics (MTDL IJ)</a> saw a steady 13% increase in profits in 3Q2024 but this masks a sharp sequential rebound in 3Q2024 from both ICT and Solutions &amp; Consulting.</li>
<li>The key driver for the ICT segment came from the telco segment, whilst the S&amp;C segment was driven by financial services and the corporate segment, with 55% recurrent segment revenues. </li>
<li>Outlook for 4Q2024 looks positive for S&amp;C with momentum picking up with the new government has taken office. MTDL is increasing exposure to AI now at 7% of S&amp;C sales.</li>
</ul>



PT Metrodata Electronics (MTDL IJ) saw a steady 13% increase in profits in 3Q2024 but this masks a sharp sequential rebound in 3Q2024 from both ICT and Solutions &amp; Consulting.
The key driver for the ICT segment came from the telco segment, whilst the S&amp;C segment was driven by financial services and the corporate segment, with 55% recurrent segment revenues. 
Outlook for 4Q2024 looks positive for S&amp;C with momentum picking up with the new government has taken office. MTDL is increasing exposure to AI now at 7% of S&amp;C sales.


PT Metrodata Electronics (MTDL IJ) - Sharp Rebound in Solutions & Consulting

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors, Fabricated Knowledge

Douglas O'Laughlin

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors

Fabricated Knowledge

Learn more about the world's most important manufactured product. Meaningful insight, timely analysis, and an occasional investment idea.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>In my opinion, this week’s big news in the semiconductor industry is the ramp of Trainium. It’s a bit subtle, but I will walk you through the secondary impacts and then give you an idea.</li><li>Let’s start at the source and walk backward from there. Amazon finally woke up. <a href="https://www.semianalysis.com/p/amazons-cloud-crisis-how-aws-will" target="_blank" rel="noopener">SemiAnalysis’s piece on why Amazon will lose the future of AI</a> has pretty much turned out correct.</li><li>AWS has a fundamentally different view of how to run infrastructure, and most of it is driven by effectively pursuing Amazon basics at scale for their AWS property.</li></ul>

In my opinion, this week’s big news in the semiconductor industry is the ramp of Trainium. It’s a bit subtle, but I will walk you through the secondary impacts and then give you an idea.Let’s start at the source and walk backward from there. Amazon finally woke up. SemiAnalysis’s piece on why Amazon will lose the future of AI has pretty much turned out correct.AWS has a fundamentally different view of how to run infrastructure, and most of it is driven by effectively pursuing Amazon basics at scale for their AWS property.

United States

NVIDIA Corporation designs, develops, and markets three dimensional (3D) graphics processors and related software.  The Company's products provide interactive 3D graphics to the mainstream personal computer market.

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NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)

A Comparison of Tesla’s Cybercab and Baidu’s Apollo Shows the Latter Must Improve

Baidu's robotaxi Apollo faces higher costs to build and operate than Tesla's Cybercab and Baidu must reduce operating costs to compete effectively...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

TSMC, UMC, Global Semi Monthly Sales: Small Acceleration

TSMC and UMC report strong Oct sales growth, but remain on their bigger trends: TSMC on a high growth plateau, UMC in a slow recovery period.

Nicolas Baratte

Last Week in Event SPACE: Seven & I/Seven Bank, PCCW, Malaysia Airports, I'rom Group

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

PT Metrodata Electronics (MTDL IJ) - Sharp Rebound in Solutions & Consulting

Outlook for 4Q2024 looks positive for S&C with momentum picking up with the new government has taken office. MTDL is increasing exposure to AI now...

Angus Mackintosh

The Rise of Amazon's Trainium 2

In my opinion, this week’s big news in the semiconductor industry is the ramp of Trainium. It’s a bit subtle, but I will walk you through the...

Fabricated Knowledge

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A Comparison of Tesla’s Cybercab and Baidu’s Apollo Shows the Latter Must Improve

​Baidu's robotaxi Apollo faces higher costs to build and operate than Tesla's Cybercab and Baidu must reduce operating costs to compete effectively...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

TSMC, UMC, Global Semi Monthly Sales: Small Acceleration

​TSMC and UMC report strong Oct sales growth, but remain on their bigger trends: TSMC on a high growth plateau, UMC in a slow recovery period.

Nicolas Baratte

Last Week in Event SPACE: Seven & I/Seven Bank, PCCW, Malaysia Airports, I'rom Group

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

PT Metrodata Electronics (MTDL IJ) - Sharp Rebound in Solutions & Consulting

Outlook for 4Q2024 looks positive for S&C with momentum picking up with the new government has taken office. MTDL is increasing exposure to AI now...

Angus Mackintosh

The Rise of Amazon's Trainium 2

In my opinion, this week’s big news in the semiconductor industry is the ramp of Trainium. It’s a bit subtle, but I will walk you through the...

Fabricated Knowledge

Baidu's robotaxi Apollo faces higher costs to build and operate than Tesla's Cybercab and Baidu must reduce operating costs to compete effectively...

TSMC and UMC report strong Oct sales growth, but remain on their bigger trends: TSMC on a high growth plateau, UMC in a slow recovery period.