Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven), MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven)

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-motor-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:73:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Motor (7203 JP)</a> has been going nowhere since July 2025 and before that it dropped from its highest peak. Long-term bullish, but short term we expect a pullback.</li>
<li>Our model shows that the current trend pattern for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-motor-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:73:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Motor (7203 JP)</a> is not bullish, usually the stock pulls back after 2 weeks up, i.e. end of this week.</li>
<li>We propose this analysis of the pullback as an opportunity to buy at higher prices, or otherwise to hedge your holdings, if you want to tactically optimize returns.</li>
</ul>



Toyota Motor (7203 JP) has been going nowhere since July 2025 and before that it dropped from its highest peak. Long-term bullish, but short term we expect a pullback.
Our model shows that the current trend pattern for Toyota Motor (7203 JP) is not bullish, usually the stock pulls back after 2 weeks up, i.e. end of this week.
We propose this analysis of the pullback as an opportunity to buy at higher prices, or otherwise to hedge your holdings, if you want to tactically optimize returns.


Toyota Motor (7203 JP) Tactical Outlook: Awaiting Imminent Pullback

Singapore Market Roundup, Singapore Market Roundup

Singapore Market Roundup

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Citi downgrades OCBC to 'neutral' despite positive 2QFY2026 outlook.</li><li>Broker's Digest: Aztech, Raffles, YZJ, HPH, iFAST, SGX, Singtel.</li><li>DBS maintains Singtel's target price at $5.46 amid Optus stake sale discussions.</li></ul>

Citi downgrades OCBC to 'neutral' despite positive 2QFY2026 outlook.Broker's Digest: Aztech, Raffles, YZJ, HPH, iFAST, SGX, Singtel.DBS maintains Singtel's target price at $5.46 amid Optus stake sale discussions.

Singapore Market Roundup (31-Jul-2026): Citi downgrades OCBC to 'neutral' despite positive

Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>China's exports surged 17.4%YoY in H1/2026, mitigating the impact of FAI declining 5.7%YoY, and retail sales eking out 0.2%YoY growth in Q2/2026. Propped by exports, Q2/2026 real GDP grew 4.3%YoY.</li>
<li>Like steel in 2011-15, car exports are soaring (70.6%YoY H1/2026) while domestic sales are slumping (-20.4%YoY). China's car exports are gaining global market share by dumping (selling below cost). </li>
<li>Real GDP will likely grow less than 4% in 2026. With net services/income and capital outflows of US$1.09trn (Jul'25-Jun'26), stimulus will increase capital flight. Nonetheless China's export companies are BUYs.</li>
</ul>


China's exports surged 17.4%YoY in H1/2026, mitigating the impact of FAI declining 5.7%YoY, and retail sales eking out 0.2%YoY growth in Q2/2026. Propped by exports, Q2/2026 real GDP grew 4.3%YoY.
Like steel in 2011-15, car exports are soaring (70.6%YoY H1/2026) while domestic sales are slumping (-20.4%YoY). China's car exports are gaining global market share by dumping (selling below cost). 
Real GDP will likely grow less than 4% in 2026. With net services/income and capital outflows of US$1.09trn (Jul'25-Jun'26), stimulus will increase capital flight. Nonetheless China's export companies are BUYs.


China: Slumping Domestic Economy Is Propped up by Exports Dumped Abroad

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>It's a weak stub. And given <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/inpex-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20665:1" rel="noopener">Inpex Corp (1605 JP)</a>'s direct upstream ops amid high crude oil prices, I'd be disinclined to short the company here against <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-petroleum-exploration" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12219:1" rel="noopener">JAPEX (1662 JP)</a>.</li>
<li>Keswick chips away at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jardine-matheson-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19718:1" rel="noopener">Jardine Matheson (JM SP)</a>'s minorities via scrip dividends and buybacks; as JMH completes the  US$2.4bn i-Med acquisition. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jardine-matheson-southeast-asia-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:347:1" rel="noopener">Jardine Matheson Southeast Asia (JCNC SP)</a> (formerly known as Jardine Cycle &amp; Carriage), popped ~10% ahead of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-motor-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:73:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Motor (7203 JP)</a> in-specie-distribution and special dividend.</li>
</ul>


It's a weak stub. And given Inpex Corp (1605 JP)'s direct upstream ops amid high crude oil prices, I'd be disinclined to short the company here against JAPEX (1662 JP).
Keswick chips away at Jardine Matheson (JM SP)'s minorities via scrip dividends and buybacks; as JMH completes the  US$2.4bn i-Med acquisition. 

Jardine Matheson Southeast Asia (JCNC SP) (formerly known as Jardine Cycle &amp; Carriage), popped ~10% ahead of the Toyota Motor (7203 JP) in-specie-distribution and special dividend.


Last Week In Event SPACE: Inpex, Jardine Matheson, Jardine Matheson Southeast Asia, Genting

Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

<ul>
<li>Softbank claims Toyota's crown as Japan's largest company as ARM +15.7% on NVDA's PC superchip announcement.</li>
<li>QD Laser and TDK announce RGB laser partnership for building mass-production capability for smart-glasses hardware.</li>
<li>Space names facing heavy profit taking again despite Astroscale -14.2%, QPS -13.9% and Axelspace -10.6% yesterday.</li>
</ul>


Softbank claims Toyota's crown as Japan's largest company as ARM +15.7% on NVDA's PC superchip announcement.
QD Laser and TDK announce RGB laser partnership for building mass-production capability for smart-glasses hardware.
Space names facing heavy profit taking again despite Astroscale -14.2%, QPS -13.9% and Axelspace -10.6% yesterday.


Japan Morning Connection: Long AI Short Software Trade Unwinding as Jensen Backs Software

Japan

Toyota Motor Corporation manufactures, sells, leases, and repairs passenger cars, trucks, buses, and their related parts worldwide. The Company also operates financing services through their subsidiaries. Toyota Motor builds homes, produces pleasure boats, and develops intelligent transportation systems including radar cruise control and electronic toll collection systems.

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Toyota Motor (7203 JP)