Equity & Credit Research

Duncan Chan

Commodities

OSE Rubber Future Contract RSS3 / Commodities

OSE Rubber Future Contract RSS3 (JNA COMDTY)

<ul>
<li>ANRPC projects 2025 production growth of 0.3% versus demand growth of 1.8%, suggesting tighter balances may persist if demand remains supportive.</li>
<li>SHFE rubber inventories stood at 125,410 tonnes versus a long-term median of 508,990 tonnes, indicating reduced visible supply buffers.</li>
<li>Thailand accounts for roughly one-third of global production, while slower biological supply responses increase market sensitivity if demand conditions strengthen.</li>
</ul>


ANRPC projects 2025 production growth of 0.3% versus demand growth of 1.8%, suggesting tighter balances may persist if demand remains supportive.
SHFE rubber inventories stood at 125,410 tonnes versus a long-term median of 508,990 tonnes, indicating reduced visible supply buffers.
Thailand accounts for roughly one-third of global production, while slower biological supply responses increase market sensitivity if demand conditions strengthen.


Natural Rubber: Weather Disruption Underpins Supply Tightness, as Demand Weighs In

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

Shenton Research

Shenton Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in margin trading positions of JPX stocks as of Oct 2nd. The aggregated net margin trading position is USD30,228m.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top/bottom net long/short of margin trading by value, net margin buy as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight net margin buy/sell changes in Mitsubishi UFJ Financial, Advantest, Fujikura, Lasertec, Simplex, Furukawa Electric, Tokyo Electron, Nagoya Railroad, Taiyo Yuden, Toyota Motor.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in margin trading positions of JPX stocks as of Oct 2nd. The aggregated net margin trading position is USD30,228m.
We tabulate league tables for top/bottom net long/short of margin trading by value, net margin buy as multiple of ADT.
We highlight net margin buy/sell changes in Mitsubishi UFJ Financial, Advantest, Fujikura, Lasertec, Simplex, Furukawa Electric, Tokyo Electron, Nagoya Railroad, Taiyo Yuden, Toyota Motor.


JPX Margin Trading Weekly (Oct 2nd): Mitsubishi UFJ Financial, Advantest, Fujikura, Lasertec

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Jardine Matheson Southeast Asia / Event-Driven

Jardine Matheson Southeast Asia (JCNC SP)

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jardine-matheson-southeast-asia-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:347:1" rel="noopener">Jardine Matheson Southeast Asia (JCNC SP)</a> (formerly known as Jardine Cycle &amp; Carriage (JCNC SP), popped ~10% today ahead of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-motor-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:73:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Motor (7203 JP)</a> in-specie-distribution and special dividend.</li>
<li>The record date for both is the 9th October, with payment on (or before) 2nd December. </li>
<li>JMSEA's implied stub value is around its highest-ever level. As is the simple ratio of JMSEA/<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pt-astra-international-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46:1" rel="noopener">Astra International (ASII IJ)</a>. Neither are sustainable. Borrow is (reportedly) non-existent.</li>
</ul>



Jardine Matheson Southeast Asia (JCNC SP) (formerly known as Jardine Cycle &amp; Carriage (JCNC SP), popped ~10% today ahead of the Toyota Motor (7203 JP) in-specie-distribution and special dividend.
The record date for both is the 9th October, with payment on (or before) 2nd December. 
JMSEA's implied stub value is around its highest-ever level. As is the simple ratio of JMSEA/Astra International (ASII IJ). Neither are sustainable. Borrow is (reportedly) non-existent.


Jardine Matheson Southeast Asia (JCNC SP) Pops On Toyota In-Specie & Special Div

Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>The Asian Alpha Hedge Portfolio performance in 1Q26 was +17.83% versus its benchmark performance of +1.79% for an outperformance of 16.04%.</li>
<li>Over the last year, AAHP's Sharpe ratio is 4.39 with a mean excess annualized return of 69%.  The portfolio has a gross and net exposure of 132% and +30%, respectively.</li>
<li>The war has changed outlooks for economies and markets in the region.  Accordingly, we reduced risk in the portfolio and adjusted our long/short exposures to reflect this new reality.</li>
</ul>


The Asian Alpha Hedge Portfolio performance in 1Q26 was +17.83% versus its benchmark performance of +1.79% for an outperformance of 16.04%.
Over the last year, AAHP's Sharpe ratio is 4.39 with a mean excess annualized return of 69%.  The portfolio has a gross and net exposure of 132% and +30%, respectively.
The war has changed outlooks for economies and markets in the region.  Accordingly, we reduced risk in the portfolio and adjusted our long/short exposures to reflect this new reality.


Asian Alpha Hedge Portfolio (March, 2026)

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

INFRONEER Holdings  / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/infroneer-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35785:1" rel="noopener">INFRONEER Holdings (5076 JP)</a> aims to raise around US$800m to fund the acquisition of Swing Corporation.</li>
<li>The acquisition was announced earlier this year, with the company revising its earnings a few months ago and hence, this is the last leg of the transaction.</li>
<li>In this note, we will run the deal through our ECM framework.</li>
</ul>



INFRONEER Holdings (5076 JP) aims to raise around US$800m to fund the acquisition of Swing Corporation.
The acquisition was announced earlier this year, with the company revising its earnings a few months ago and hence, this is the last leg of the transaction.
In this note, we will run the deal through our ECM framework.


Aequitas: Infroneer Holding Placement - Positives Baked In, Somewhat Flagged

Japan

Toyota Motor Corporation manufactures, sells, leases, and repairs passenger cars, trucks, buses, and their related parts worldwide. The Company also operates financing services through their subsidiaries. Toyota Motor builds homes, produces pleasure boats, and develops intelligent transportation systems including radar cruise control and electronic toll collection systems.

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Toyota Motor (7203 JP)

Natural Rubber: Weather Disruption Underpins Supply Tightness, as Demand Weighs In

Weather may initiate supply tightening, but lower inventories and downstream demand determine whether tighter rubber conditions become investable.

Duncan Chan

JPX Margin Trading Weekly (Oct 2nd): Mitsubishi UFJ Financial, Advantest, Fujikura, Lasertec

We analyzed JPX margin trading positions report for the past week and highlighted Mitsubishi UFJ Financial (8306 JP), Advantest (6857 JP), Fujikura...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Jardine Matheson Southeast Asia (JCNC SP) Pops On Toyota In-Specie & Special Div

I get JMSEA's outperformance vs Astra given the weakening rupiah, Indonesia's MSCI overhang; and JMSEA's value unlock strategy. But to what point?...

David Blennerhassett

Asian Alpha Hedge Portfolio (March, 2026)

While we do not believe that the Iran conflict is close to a resolution, we believe that the U.S. side needs to reach one, and that will eventually...

David Mudd

Aequitas: Infroneer Holding Placement - Positives Baked In, Somewhat Flagged

INFRONEER Holdings (5076 JP) aims to raise around US$800m to fund the acquisition of Swing Corporation. In this note, we talk about the deal dynamics.

Sumeet Singh

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