TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst, Obex Capital Research

Aaron Gabin

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research

Obex Capital Research

“Obex” is Latin for Barriers to Entry. Obex Capital Management’s investment philosophy is driven by an intense focus on which business model’s Barriers to Entry are able to withstand the ever increasing competitive disruption in the TMT and Consumer Sectors.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Adobe's stock has pulled back 35% since November, a far larger drawdown than megacap software peers on fears of pulled in growth for Creative Cloud.</li>
<li>Weak initial guidance for 2022 was reiterated this past week, implying reacceleration in 2H22.</li>
<li>Price increases should serve as a tailwind in 2H22, providing a good entry point on a quality compounder that is trading at 5 year trough multiples.</li>
</ul>


Adobe's stock has pulled back 35% since November, a far larger drawdown than megacap software peers on fears of pulled in growth for Creative Cloud.
Weak initial guidance for 2022 was reiterated this past week, implying reacceleration in 2H22.
Price increases should serve as a tailwind in 2H22, providing a good entry point on a quality compounder that is trading at 5 year trough multiples.


Adobe: Price Increase Bullish or Bearish?

Covering IPOs, Healthcare and Technology Stocks

Andrei Zakharov

Algosun Global

<ul>
<li>This year the market presents investors with opportunities, especially in the technology sector, and we believe VC-backed Amplitude is one of them. </li>
<li>The market cap of the leading product and data analytics unicorn fell to ~$2.3B, keeping in mind last private round valuation was ~$4B in June of 2021. </li>
<li>$21 valuation, based on ~10x 2022E EV/Revenue and ~8x 2023E EV/Revenue, applies to our bear case revenue estimates of $226M in CY22 and $287M in CY23.</li>
</ul>


This year the market presents investors with opportunities, especially in the technology sector, and we believe VC-backed Amplitude is one of them. 
The market cap of the leading product and data analytics unicorn fell to ~$2.3B, keeping in mind last private round valuation was ~$4B in June of 2021. 
$21 valuation, based on ~10x 2022E EV/Revenue and ~8x 2023E EV/Revenue, applies to our bear case revenue estimates of $226M in CY22 and $287M in CY23.


Amplitude – Our Stock Pick With Huge Upside Potential

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul><li>The electronic signature market has accelerated after the Covid-19 induced tailwinds and market leader, DocuSign has continued to stay on top despite strong competition from a behemoth like Adobe.</li><li>Both companies have their fair share of positives and it is interesting to place them side-by-side and evaluate their financial performance.</li><li>It would also be interesting to look at the key competitive advantages that both, DocuSign and Adobe hold, which are making them such strong forces, not just in the e-signature market but also in other markets.</li></ul>

The electronic signature market has accelerated after the Covid-19 induced tailwinds and market leader, DocuSign has continued to stay on top despite strong competition from a behemoth like Adobe.Both companies have their fair share of positives and it is interesting to place them side-by-side and evaluate their financial performance.It would also be interesting to look at the key competitive advantages that both, DocuSign and Adobe hold, which are making them such strong forces, not just in the e-signature market but also in other markets.

Adobe vs. DocuSign - The E-Signature Playground (01/2022)

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/elastic-nv" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27526:1" rel="noopener">Elastic NV (ESTC US)</a>  has grown its ARR from ~$207 million as of Jul-18 to ~$760 million today and may become a multi-billion dollar unicorn in the future.  </li>
<li>We like the subscription-based freemium business model, strong net expansion rate, and acceleration in revenue growth of Elastic Cloud business, which currently represents ~33% of total revenue. </li>
<li>Elastic Search is one of the most popular search engines globally, and the company’s products have been downloaded more than 350 million times since 2013. </li>
</ul>



Elastic NV (ESTC US)  has grown its ARR from ~$207 million as of Jul-18 to ~$760 million today and may become a multi-billion dollar unicorn in the future.  
We like the subscription-based freemium business model, strong net expansion rate, and acceleration in revenue growth of Elastic Cloud business, which currently represents ~33% of total revenue. 
Elastic Search is one of the most popular search engines globally, and the company’s products have been downloaded more than 350 million times since 2013. 


Elastic: High-Profile Search Company With Attractive Fundamentals

<ul><li>Adobe had another outstanding year in 2021, with revenues crossing over $1 billion in each segment for the first time with 23% year-over-year growth.</li><li>The company launched Creative Cloud Express to provide a useful tool for creative expression of ideas on a digital interface.</li><li>Adobe also increased its investment in the Adobe Experience Platform as the underlying platform for strong governance capabilities across its Experience Cloud business, advancing global breakthroughs such as the real-time customer data platform and Adobe Journey Optimizer.</li></ul>

Adobe had another outstanding year in 2021, with revenues crossing over $1 billion in each segment for the first time with 23% year-over-year growth.The company launched Creative Cloud Express to provide a useful tool for creative expression of ideas on a digital interface.Adobe also increased its investment in the Adobe Experience Platform as the underlying platform for strong governance capabilities across its Experience Cloud business, advancing global breakthroughs such as the real-time customer data platform and Adobe Journey Optimizer.

United States

Adobe Systems Incorporated develops, markets, and supports computer software products and technologies.  The Company's products allow users to express and use information across all print and electronic media.  Adobe offers a line of application software products, type products, and content for creating, distributing, and managing information.

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Adobe Systems (ADBE US)

Adobe: Price Increase Bullish or Bearish?

Adobe is down 2-3x more than large cap software peers. Price increases should serve as a tailwind in 2H22, providing a good entry point on a...

Aaron Gabin

Amplitude – Our Stock Pick With Huge Upside Potential

Our fundamental analysis suggests that Amplitude stock has a limited downside potential and is trading at a significant discount valuation to peers.

Andrei Zakharov

Adobe vs. DocuSign - The E-Signature Playground (01/2022)

The electronic signature market has accelerated after the Covid-19 induced tailwinds and market leader, DocuSign has continued to stay on top...

Baptista Research

Elastic: High-Profile Search Company With Attractive Fundamentals

Elastic is a high-profile search technology company and we believe current valuations look attractive for long-term investors

Andrei Zakharov

Adobe Inc. - Investment Thesis

Adobe had another outstanding year in 2021, with revenues crossing over $1 billion in each segment for the first time with 23% year-over-year...

Baptista Research

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