Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>News or rumors of Nvidia, AMD, Broadcom cutting down CoWoS orders at TSMC have been flying around since last week (Taiwan media, some sell-side analysts).</li>
<li>TSMC guided for AI revenues doubling in 2025. Nvidia’s CEO clarified that CoWoS-S orders are declining because CoWoS-L is increasing. This transition has been known for over 1 year.</li>
<li>TSMC is converting CoWoS-S to L and adding capacity in Tainan Science Park phase 2 &amp; 3. In 2024, CoWoS-L was ~10% of CoWoS output, increasing to 50-60% in 2025.</li>
</ul>


News or rumors of Nvidia, AMD, Broadcom cutting down CoWoS orders at TSMC have been flying around since last week (Taiwan media, some sell-side analysts).
TSMC guided for AI revenues doubling in 2025. Nvidia’s CEO clarified that CoWoS-S orders are declining because CoWoS-L is increasing. This transition has been known for over 1 year.
TSMC is converting CoWoS-S to L and adding capacity in Tainan Science Park phase 2 &amp; 3. In 2024, CoWoS-L was ~10% of CoWoS output, increasing to 50-60% in 2025.


TSMC Order Cut Rumors: Keep Calm and Ignore the Rumors.

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

<ul>
<li>Leaked Mediatek Chip Specs? -- Talk of a "Qualcomm Killer"</li>
<li>Hon Hai in the New York Times -- Why Foxconn is Investing in Texas &amp; Thailand</li>
<li>TSMC's Arizona 4nm Production On Track to Start 2H25E -- Still Expected to Be 30% Higher Cost vs. Taiwan and That's Okay</li>
</ul>


Leaked Mediatek Chip Specs? -- Talk of a "Qualcomm Killer"
Hon Hai in the New York Times -- Why Foxconn is Investing in Texas &amp; Thailand
TSMC's Arizona 4nm Production On Track to Start 2H25E -- Still Expected to Be 30% Higher Cost vs. Taiwan and That's Okay


Taiwan Tech Weekly: Leaked Mediatek Specs Spur Talk Of "Qualcomm Killer"'; TSMC on Track in Arizona

<ul>
<li>Steady loss of market share to AMD in x86 PC and Server. Single design win for the GPU Max, overall no AI or Accelerator roadmap.  </li>
<li>Steady deterioration of the financials. Collapse in NON-GAAP Operating Profits, leading to negative Free Cash Flow, leading to increasing Net Debt. </li>
<li>Most damaging, IMO was during 3Q24 conference call (1st Nov 2024) when the CFO David Zinsner said: don’t expect a recovery before 2026. CEO Gelsinger was gone 1 month later. </li>
</ul>


Steady loss of market share to AMD in x86 PC and Server. Single design win for the GPU Max, overall no AI or Accelerator roadmap.  
Steady deterioration of the financials. Collapse in NON-GAAP Operating Profits, leading to negative Free Cash Flow, leading to increasing Net Debt. 
Most damaging, IMO was during 3Q24 conference call (1st Nov 2024) when the CFO David Zinsner said: don’t expect a recovery before 2026. CEO Gelsinger was gone 1 month later. 


Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>On Election Day, the US faces a Dead Heat. Realclearpolitics predicts a Trump victory, The Economist a narrow Harris win (270-268), similar to fivethirtyeight's tally. Turmoil amid slow counting likely.</li>
<li>A Trump win would be good for conventional energy, banks, PE (via deregulation). Lower oil prices and a 60% tariff on imports from China would benefit Japan, India, Korea, Vietnam. </li>
<li>A Harris win would would be good for housing/property, green energy, semiconductors, negative for equities (as corporate &amp; capital-gains taxes rise) and retailers (anti-price-gouging!). Taiwan, Ukraine, UK, France would gain. </li>
</ul>


On Election Day, the US faces a Dead Heat. Realclearpolitics predicts a Trump victory, The Economist a narrow Harris win (270-268), similar to fivethirtyeight's tally. Turmoil amid slow counting likely.
A Trump win would be good for conventional energy, banks, PE (via deregulation). Lower oil prices and a 60% tariff on imports from China would benefit Japan, India, Korea, Vietnam. 
A Harris win would would be good for housing/property, green energy, semiconductors, negative for equities (as corporate &amp; capital-gains taxes rise) and retailers (anti-price-gouging!). Taiwan, Ukraine, UK, France would gain. 


US: Election Is a Dead Heat, but There'll Be Very Different Winners from Each Outcome

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist, Objective Analysis

Jim Handy

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist

Objective Analysis

Objective Analysis offers third-party independent market research and data for the semiconductor industry and investors in the semiconductor industry.

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>August's WSTS semiconductor revenues registered a record high of more than $53 billion</li>
<li>Nobody seemed to notice, including the organization making the announcement</li>
<li>There's valid concern that the market is on the verge of a collapse, and this may be overshadowing record sales</li>
</ul>


August's WSTS semiconductor revenues registered a record high of more than $53 billion
Nobody seemed to notice, including the organization making the announcement
There's valid concern that the market is on the verge of a collapse, and this may be overshadowing record sales


Semis Just Broke a Record.  Why Did Nobody Notice?

United States

Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD) produces semiconductor products and devices. The Company offers products such as microprocessors, embedded microprocessors, chipsets, graphics, video and multimedia products and supplies it to third-party foundries, as well as provides assembling, testing, and packaging services. AMD serves customers worldwide.

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TSMC Order Cut Rumors: Keep Calm and Ignore the Rumors.

Rumors of Nvidia, AMD, Broadcom cutting CoWoS orders at TSMC are debunked as TSMC transitions to CoWoS-L, expects a doubling of AI revenues in...

Nicolas Baratte

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Leaked Mediatek Specs Spur Talk Of "Qualcomm Killer"'; TSMC on Track in Arizona

Leaked Mediatek chip specs hint at potential rival to Qualcomm's flagship chips; Foxconn investing in Texas & Thailand; TSMC's Arizona production...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Intel: A Graphic Novel Of A Train Wreck

Everything that could go wrong did go wrong: losing market share to AMD, no success for GPU or Gaudi, financial deterioration, and finally CFO...

Nicolas Baratte

US: Election Is a Dead Heat, but There'll Be Very Different Winners from Each Outcome

RCP predicts a big Trump win, TheEconomist a narrow Harris one. Turnout key for Trump; his win would lower oil prices & hit China, benefitting the...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Semis Just Broke a Record. Why Did Nobody Notice?

August's semiconductor revenues hit a record high of over $53 billion, but concerns about a potential market collapse are overshadowing the...

Jim Handy

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TSMC Order Cut Rumors: Keep Calm and Ignore the Rumors.

​Rumors of Nvidia, AMD, Broadcom cutting CoWoS orders at TSMC are debunked as TSMC transitions to CoWoS-L, expects a doubling of AI revenues in...

Nicolas Baratte

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Leaked Mediatek Specs Spur Talk Of "Qualcomm Killer"'; TSMC on Track in Arizona

​Leaked Mediatek chip specs hint at potential rival to Qualcomm's flagship chips; Foxconn investing in Texas & Thailand; TSMC's Arizona production...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Intel: A Graphic Novel Of A Train Wreck

Everything that could go wrong did go wrong: losing market share to AMD, no success for GPU or Gaudi, financial deterioration, and finally CFO...

Nicolas Baratte

US: Election Is a Dead Heat, but There'll Be Very Different Winners from Each Outcome

RCP predicts a big Trump win, TheEconomist a narrow Harris one. Turnout key for Trump; his win would lower oil prices & hit China, benefitting the...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Semis Just Broke a Record. Why Did Nobody Notice?

​August's semiconductor revenues hit a record high of over $53 billion, but concerns about a potential market collapse are overshadowing the...

Jim Handy

Rumors of Nvidia, AMD, Broadcom cutting CoWoS orders at TSMC are debunked as TSMC transitions to CoWoS-L, expects a doubling of AI revenues in...

Leaked Mediatek chip specs hint at potential rival to Qualcomm's flagship chips; Foxconn investing in Texas & Thailand; TSMC's Arizona production...

August's semiconductor revenues hit a record high of over $53 billion, but concerns about a potential market collapse are overshadowing the...