Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (TSM US)

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>
Record 66.2% gross margin beat guidance by 120bps; management raised full-year revenue growth to "above 30%" and capex to high end of $52-56B on insatiable AI demand. </li>
<li>
Supply constraints persist through 2027 as TSMC builds three new N3 fabs globally. AI accelerator revenue CAGR reaffirmed at "higher-50s" through 2029. </li>
<li>
Supply chain scorecard: strongly positive for ASML, SK Hynix,  ASE; mixed for MediaTek and Apple; negative for Intel and Samsung  foundry competitiveness.</li>
</ul>



Record 66.2% gross margin beat guidance by 120bps; management raised full-year revenue growth to "above 30%" and capex to high end of $52-56B on insatiable AI demand. 

Supply constraints persist through 2027 as TSMC builds three new N3 fabs globally. AI accelerator revenue CAGR reaffirmed at "higher-50s" through 2029. 

Supply chain scorecard: strongly positive for ASML, SK Hynix,  ASE; mixed for MediaTek and Apple; negative for Intel and Samsung  foundry competitiveness.


TSMC 1Q26: 66% Gross Margin Beat — What It Means for ASML, NVIDIA, MediaTek & 7 More

Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

<ul>
<li>Very impressive. 1H26 revenue growth ~35%, Operating Profits growth ~58% YoY (guidance). 1H26 Net Income growth ~54% (my estimate). Consensus will keep revising up.</li>
<li>Capacity is tight, 2026 Capex will be at high-end of guidance ($56bn), TSMC announced 3 new N3 Fabs, “doing everything” they can to speed up capacity ramp.</li>
<li>TSMC and ASML trade at +1 stdev above average. TSMC is a lot cheaper trading at 20.4x forward EPS (forward means 12 months forward or April 2027) vs ASML 40x.</li>
</ul>


Very impressive. 1H26 revenue growth ~35%, Operating Profits growth ~58% YoY (guidance). 1H26 Net Income growth ~54% (my estimate). Consensus will keep revising up.
Capacity is tight, 2026 Capex will be at high-end of guidance ($56bn), TSMC announced 3 new N3 Fabs, “doing everything” they can to speed up capacity ramp.
TSMC and ASML trade at +1 stdev above average. TSMC is a lot cheaper trading at 20.4x forward EPS (forward means 12 months forward or April 2027) vs ASML 40x.


TSMC Keeps Beating. Consensus Expects 38% EPS Growth in 2026. 1H26 EPS Growth Is Above 50% YoY.

<ul>
<li>Review of the conventional arguments (Bloomberg article): the timing gap between Capex and Revenue is the real issue.</li>
<li>Review of history of Tech Bubbles (Krugman): not clear if AI is a bubble, it could keep going for years, but if it bursts it will be worse than 1999-2003.</li>
<li>Best AI comp is Cloud Computing. Both enable new data analytics, new applications. Both are platforms. US Cloud Computing revenues increased 25x in 10 years (2015 to 2024).</li>
</ul>


Review of the conventional arguments (Bloomberg article): the timing gap between Capex and Revenue is the real issue.
Review of history of Tech Bubbles (Krugman): not clear if AI is a bubble, it could keep going for years, but if it bursts it will be worse than 1999-2003.
Best AI comp is Cloud Computing. Both enable new data analytics, new applications. Both are platforms. US Cloud Computing revenues increased 25x in 10 years (2015 to 2024).


What Are the Arguments in Favor and Against an AI Bubble?

Advanced Micro Devices / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>AMD launched MI300-355. AMD claims that for training MI355 is on par with Nvidia’s B200. For inference MI355 generates more token per $, has a better TCO. MI350 shipped May-25</li>
<li>AI addressable market: AMD maintains its $500bn by 2028 estimate, 60% Cagr “or exceeding that”. Inference will grow faster, over 80% Cagr.</li>
<li>AMD stock is cheap, has bottomed out, the roadmap is more competitive, etc. For investors looking for an alternative to Nvidia and TSMC, AMD is the best alternative imo.</li>
</ul>


AMD launched MI300-355. AMD claims that for training MI355 is on par with Nvidia’s B200. For inference MI355 generates more token per $, has a better TCO. MI350 shipped May-25
AI addressable market: AMD maintains its $500bn by 2028 estimate, 60% Cagr “or exceeding that”. Inference will grow faster, over 80% Cagr.
AMD stock is cheap, has bottomed out, the roadmap is more competitive, etc. For investors looking for an alternative to Nvidia and TSMC, AMD is the best alternative imo.


AMD Claims Its New GPU Is on Par with Nvidia, Its Software Platform ROCm Beats CUDA for Inference.

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

<ul>
<li>AMD recently announced the acquisition of Enosemi, a silicon-valley based startup specialising in chips for Co-Packaged Optics (CPO), and Brium, a previously unknown startup specialising in compiler optimisation</li>
<li>AMD is also acquiring the engineering team behind Untether, a canadian AI hardware startup similar in many ways to Graphcore</li>
<li>Wave Computing, Luminos Computing, Graphcore, Untether, the list of failing would-be NVIDIA challengers keeps growing. Who's next?</li>
</ul>


AMD recently announced the acquisition of Enosemi, a silicon-valley based startup specialising in chips for Co-Packaged Optics (CPO), and Brium, a previously unknown startup specialising in compiler optimisation
AMD is also acquiring the engineering team behind Untether, a canadian AI hardware startup similar in many ways to Graphcore
Wave Computing, Luminos Computing, Graphcore, Untether, the list of failing would-be NVIDIA challengers keeps growing. Who's next?


AMD Ups The Ante With A Flurry Of Smaller Acquisitions

United States

Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD) produces semiconductor products and devices. The Company offers products such as microprocessors, embedded microprocessors, chipsets, graphics, video and multimedia products and supplies it to third-party foundries, as well as provides assembling, testing, and packaging services. AMD serves customers worldwide.

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Advanced Micro Devices (AMD US)

TSMC 1Q26: 66% Gross Margin Beat — What It Means for ASML, NVIDIA, MediaTek & 7 More

Record gross margin beat and raised revenue guidance due to AI demand; supply constraints persist through 2027 with TSMC building new fabs; supply...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

TSMC Keeps Beating. Consensus Expects 38% EPS Growth in 2026. 1H26 EPS Growth Is Above 50% YoY.

Impressive revenue and profit growth for TSMC, tight capacity leading to high Capex and new fabs, TSMC trading cheaper than ASML.

Nicolas Baratte

What Are the Arguments in Favor and Against an AI Bubble?

Timing gap between Capex and Revenue is the real issue, AI could be a bubble worse than 1999-2003, Cloud Computing is the best AI comp with...

Nicolas Baratte

AMD Claims Its New GPU Is on Par with Nvidia, Its Software Platform ROCm Beats CUDA for Inference.

AMD launches MI300-355, competitive with Nvidia's B200 for training and better for inference. AMD estimate AI market at $500bn by 2028. AMD stock...

Nicolas Baratte

AMD Ups The Ante With A Flurry Of Smaller Acquisitions

Wave Computing, Luminos Computing, Graphcore, Untether, the list of failing would-be NVIDIA challengers keeps growing. Who's next?

William Keating

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TSMC 1Q26: 66% Gross Margin Beat — What It Means for ASML, NVIDIA, MediaTek & 7 More

​Record gross margin beat and raised revenue guidance due to AI demand; supply constraints persist through 2027 with TSMC building new fabs; supply...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

TSMC Keeps Beating. Consensus Expects 38% EPS Growth in 2026. 1H26 EPS Growth Is Above 50% YoY.

​Impressive revenue and profit growth for TSMC, tight capacity leading to high Capex and new fabs, TSMC trading cheaper than ASML.

Nicolas Baratte

What Are the Arguments in Favor and Against an AI Bubble?

​Timing gap between Capex and Revenue is the real issue, AI could be a bubble worse than 1999-2003, Cloud Computing is the best AI comp with...

Nicolas Baratte

AMD Claims Its New GPU Is on Par with Nvidia, Its Software Platform ROCm Beats CUDA for Inference.

​AMD launches MI300-355, competitive with Nvidia's B200 for training and better for inference. AMD estimate AI market at $500bn by 2028. AMD stock...

Nicolas Baratte

AMD Ups The Ante With A Flurry Of Smaller Acquisitions

Wave Computing, Luminos Computing, Graphcore, Untether, the list of failing would-be NVIDIA challengers keeps growing. Who's next?

William Keating

Record gross margin beat and raised revenue guidance due to AI demand; supply constraints persist through 2027 with TSMC building new fabs; supply...

Impressive revenue and profit growth for TSMC, tight capacity leading to high Capex and new fabs, TSMC trading cheaper than ASML.

Timing gap between Capex and Revenue is the real issue, AI could be a bubble worse than 1999-2003, Cloud Computing is the best AI comp with...

AMD launches MI300-355, competitive with Nvidia's B200 for training and better for inference. AMD estimate AI market at $500bn by 2028. AMD stock...