Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist, Objective Analysis

Jim Handy

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist

Objective Analysis

Objective Analysis offers third-party independent market research and data for the semiconductor industry and investors in the semiconductor industry.

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>China is considering banning gallium and germanium shipments to the US</li>
<li>Semiconductors consume well under 20% of world gallium production, and an almost immeasurably small amount of germanium</li>
<li>Very little of the consumption is in the US, indicating that the impact of a boycott should be very small</li>
</ul>


China is considering banning gallium and germanium shipments to the US
Semiconductors consume well under 20% of world gallium production, and an almost immeasurably small amount of germanium
Very little of the consumption is in the US, indicating that the impact of a boycott should be very small


Is China's Boycott of Germanium Gallium to the US Meaningful?

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Capital Markets

CXMT Corporation / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cxmt-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44129:1" rel="noopener">CXMT Corporation (688825 CH)</a> concluded its IPO price at Rmb8.66, and we estimate this equals 5x PER for FY26 and 3.4x for FY27.</li>
<li>It is inexpensive relative to global peers, as they are trading at an average of 8.1x and 6.1x, respectively. Normally, A-shares trade at a higher multiple than global peers. </li>
<li>Applying the Hang Seng AH premium on the IPO, there is a 74.5% upside. Aggressively, if GPU companies are used as references, it may even provide a 3x upside.</li>
</ul>



CXMT Corporation (688825 CH) concluded its IPO price at Rmb8.66, and we estimate this equals 5x PER for FY26 and 3.4x for FY27.
It is inexpensive relative to global peers, as they are trading at an average of 8.1x and 6.1x, respectively. Normally, A-shares trade at a higher multiple than global peers. 
Applying the Hang Seng AH premium on the IPO, there is a 74.5% upside. Aggressively, if GPU companies are used as references, it may even provide a 3x upside.


CXMT Corporation (688825 CH) IPO: Valuation Insight

Shanghai Enflame Technology / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-enflame-technology-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:50657:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Enflame Technology (ENFLAME CH)</a>, one of the "Four Domestic GPU Little Dragons", has just been approved by the CSRC to list on the STAR market, aiming to raise Rmb6bn.</li>
<li>The company's strengths lie in its comprehensive product portfolio, differentiated architecture (DSA vs. GPGPU), strong shareholder backing, and position for China's AI self-sufficiency.</li>
<li>At 27.1x P/S for FY26 (10% share capital enlargement), Enflame is inexpensive relative to A-share peers, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-biren-technology-co-ltd-class-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39934:1" rel="noopener">Biren Technology (6082 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-iluvatar-corex-semiconductor-co-ltd-class-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46193:1" rel="noopener">Iluvatar CoreX (9903 HK)</a>. </li>
</ul>



Shanghai Enflame Technology (ENFLAME CH), one of the "Four Domestic GPU Little Dragons", has just been approved by the CSRC to list on the STAR market, aiming to raise Rmb6bn.
The company's strengths lie in its comprehensive product portfolio, differentiated architecture (DSA vs. GPGPU), strong shareholder backing, and position for China's AI self-sufficiency.
At 27.1x P/S for FY26 (10% share capital enlargement), Enflame is inexpensive relative to A-share peers, Biren Technology (6082 HK) and Iluvatar CoreX (9903 HK). 


Shanghai Enflame (燧原科技) Pre-IPO: Key Investment Thesis

Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We’re going thru another iteration of the “AI peak” theory, driven by Hyperscalers’ declining Free Cash Flow. Coinciding with an “AI bubble” narrative, following the April-May stock rally.  </li>
<li>Stocks aren’t expensive. Semiconductors are trading at average PEx (17.7x forward EPS), Hyperscalers at -1 standard deviation (21.1x forward EPS). No valuations bubble. Expectations bubble? Consensus forecasts look reasonable.</li>
<li>Hyperscalers’ declining Free Cash Flows is true. Increasing Debt issuance is true. Also true: Cloud revenues are accelerating, margins are expanding. Most extraordinary is the increase in Remaining Performance Obligations.</li>
</ul>


We’re going thru another iteration of the “AI peak” theory, driven by Hyperscalers’ declining Free Cash Flow. Coinciding with an “AI bubble” narrative, following the April-May stock rally.  
Stocks aren’t expensive. Semiconductors are trading at average PEx (17.7x forward EPS), Hyperscalers at -1 standard deviation (21.1x forward EPS). No valuations bubble. Expectations bubble? Consensus forecasts look reasonable.
Hyperscalers’ declining Free Cash Flows is true. Increasing Debt issuance is true. Also true: Cloud revenues are accelerating, margins are expanding. Most extraordinary is the increase in Remaining Performance Obligations.


AI Is a Bubble, Again? Stocks Aren’t Expensive. Hyperscalers’ Future Revenue Tells a Different Story

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (TSM US)

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>The SOX is up ~55% since March ’26, on the back of massive earnings. Valuations are  average. Within the SOX, there is a wide divergence in performance and valuations.</li>
<li>Memory sector is, at the same time: highest earnings growth, highest stock performance, and yet the lowest valuations. </li>
<li>Within the big caps, NVDA and TSMC are now abnormally cheap.</li>
</ul>


The SOX is up ~55% since March ’26, on the back of massive earnings. Valuations are  average. Within the SOX, there is a wide divergence in performance and valuations.
Memory sector is, at the same time: highest earnings growth, highest stock performance, and yet the lowest valuations. 
Within the big caps, NVDA and TSMC are now abnormally cheap.


What to Do with Semi Stocks? The SOX Rally Is Not a Crazy Bubble.

United States

Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD) produces semiconductor products and devices. The Company offers products such as microprocessors, embedded microprocessors, chipsets, graphics, video and multimedia products and supplies it to third-party foundries, as well as provides assembling, testing, and packaging services. AMD serves customers worldwide.

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Advanced Micro Devices (AMD US)

Is China's Boycott of Germanium Gallium to the US Meaningful?

Although China has threatened to boycott shipments of germanium and gallium to the US, the impact of such a move is likely to be very small. This...

Jim Handy

CXMT Corporation (688825 CH) IPO: Valuation Insight

CXMT Corporation (688825 CH) has announced it will start trading on the Shanghai Stock Exchange's STAR Market next Monday (27 Jul 2026).

Osbert Tang, CFA

Shanghai Enflame (燧原科技) Pre-IPO: Key Investment Thesis

CSRC has just approved Shanghai Enflame Technology's application to list on the STAR market, with an aim of raising Rmb6bn. Its FY26F P/S ratio is...

Osbert Tang, CFA

AI Is a Bubble, Again? Stocks Aren’t Expensive. Hyperscalers’ Future Revenue Tells a Different Story

AI peak theory revisited as Hyperscalers' declining Free Cash Flow sparks "AI bubble" narrative. Valuations not bubble, expectations not inflated....

Nicolas Baratte

What to Do with Semi Stocks? The SOX Rally Is Not a Crazy Bubble.

The SOX index has surged 55% since March on strong earnings. Wide divergence in performance and valuations. Memory sector: high growth but low...

Nicolas Baratte

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Is China's Boycott of Germanium Gallium to the US Meaningful?

Although China has threatened to boycott shipments of germanium and gallium to the US, the impact of such a move is likely to be very small. This...

Jim Handy

CXMT Corporation (688825 CH) IPO: Valuation Insight

CXMT Corporation (688825 CH) has announced it will start trading on the Shanghai Stock Exchange's STAR Market next Monday (27 Jul 2026).

Osbert Tang, CFA

Shanghai Enflame (燧原科技) Pre-IPO: Key Investment Thesis

CSRC has just approved ​Shanghai Enflame Technology's application to list on the STAR market, with an aim of raising Rmb6bn. Its FY26F P/S ratio is...

Osbert Tang, CFA

AI Is a Bubble, Again? Stocks Aren’t Expensive. Hyperscalers’ Future Revenue Tells a Different Story

​AI peak theory revisited as Hyperscalers' declining Free Cash Flow sparks "AI bubble" narrative. Valuations not bubble, expectations not inflated....

Nicolas Baratte

What to Do with Semi Stocks? The SOX Rally Is Not a Crazy Bubble.

​The SOX index has surged 55% since March on strong earnings. Wide divergence in performance and valuations. Memory sector: high growth but low...

Nicolas Baratte

CSRC has just approved Shanghai Enflame Technology's application to list on the STAR market, with an aim of raising Rmb6bn. Its FY26F P/S ratio is...

AI peak theory revisited as Hyperscalers' declining Free Cash Flow sparks "AI bubble" narrative. Valuations not bubble, expectations not inflated....

The SOX index has surged 55% since March on strong earnings. Wide divergence in performance and valuations. Memory sector: high growth but low...