Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>OpenAI just signed a deal with Broadcom to deploy ten gigawatts of OpenAI designed AI accelerators targeted to start in H2 2026, and to complete by end of 2029.</li>
<li>OpenAI's AMD &amp; Broadcom deals undermine the credibility of the NVIDIA deal. Where exactly is all the money going to come from?</li>
<li>In partnering with AMD and Broadcom, OpenAI has given huge credibility to AMD as a GPU competitor and Broadcom as a custom accelerator competitor. Two big headaches for NVIDIA. Ouch!</li>
</ul>


OpenAI just signed a deal with Broadcom to deploy ten gigawatts of OpenAI designed AI accelerators targeted to start in H2 2026, and to complete by end of 2029.
OpenAI's AMD &amp; Broadcom deals undermine the credibility of the NVIDIA deal. Where exactly is all the money going to come from?
In partnering with AMD and Broadcom, OpenAI has given huge credibility to AMD as a GPU competitor and Broadcom as a custom accelerator competitor. Two big headaches for NVIDIA. Ouch!


First AMD, Now Broadcom. How OpenAI Is Ruining NVIDIA's Party

Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/intel-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16764:1" rel="noopener">Intel Corp (INTC US)</a> will hold its earnings call on October 23. The recent upside in Intel’s share price is encouraging, but whether this trend can continue remains to be seen.</li>
<li>U.S. President Trump’s investment in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/intel-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16764:1" rel="noopener">Intel Corp (INTC US)</a> has so far generated about a 48.5% return, which raises the question — what’s next?</li>
<li>That said, we continue to believe that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/intel-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16764:1" rel="noopener">Intel Corp (INTC US)</a> must demonstrate real performance improvements before claiming a full turnaround.</li>
</ul>



Intel Corp (INTC US) will hold its earnings call on October 23. The recent upside in Intel’s share price is encouraging, but whether this trend can continue remains to be seen.
U.S. President Trump’s investment in Intel Corp (INTC US) has so far generated about a 48.5% return, which raises the question — what’s next?
That said, we continue to believe that Intel Corp (INTC US) must demonstrate real performance improvements before claiming a full turnaround.


Intel (INTC.US): Intel’s Share Price Is Encouraging; Caution Warranted on Its Near-Term Continuation

Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

<ul>
<li>Positive Management tone, as always, but no material clarification on 2026 revenues: China down (back to “normal”), Low NA EUV increase, some High NA but that’s still  pre-production.</li>
<li>ASML has many qualities: monopoly, litho intensity increasing. Downside risks: how low China revenue go, is Mngt still double counting TSMC + Intel capacity, expectations for High NA too high?</li>
<li>ASML is a lot more expensive than AMD, NVDA, MU, SK, TSM for very low growth. I don't like Broadcom for same reason: better Price / Growth in AMD, NVDA.</li>
</ul>


Positive Management tone, as always, but no material clarification on 2026 revenues: China down (back to “normal”), Low NA EUV increase, some High NA but that’s still  pre-production.
ASML has many qualities: monopoly, litho intensity increasing. Downside risks: how low China revenue go, is Mngt still double counting TSMC + Intel capacity, expectations for High NA too high?
ASML is a lot more expensive than AMD, NVDA, MU, SK, TSM for very low growth. I don't like Broadcom for same reason: better Price / Growth in AMD, NVDA.


ASML: No Clarification on 2026, China Procurement in Excess of End-Demand, High NA Start in 2028

AI | Semiconductors | Commodities, Mint Finance

Raghav Vashisht

AI | Semiconductors | Commodities

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Citi’s claim that AI has triggered the first true semiconductor upcycle in 25 years is partially convincing but also shows signs of overreach.</li>
<li>While ASPs have soared and logic chip margins are inflated, signs of margin compression, overordering, and inventory noise suggest the <em>pricing</em> boom may be peaking.</li>
<li>Investors may need to distinguish between capital-efficient AI bets and overleveraged plays, especially as credit markets begin to price in growing execution and demand risks.</li>
</ul>


Citi’s claim that AI has triggered the first true semiconductor upcycle in 25 years is partially convincing but also shows signs of overreach.
While ASPs have soared and logic chip margins are inflated, signs of margin compression, overordering, and inventory noise suggest the pricing boom may be peaking.
Investors may need to distinguish between capital-efficient AI bets and overleveraged plays, especially as credit markets begin to price in growing execution and demand risks.


Citi’s AI Supercycle Thesis Faces a Logic Check

<ul>
<li>OpenAI’s growth model relies on an intricate loop of vendor financing, aggressive forward contracts, and $80B+ in projected external capital.</li>
<li>Long-Dated chip commitments seem less about immediate infra demand and more about bolstering OpenAI’s fundraising optics by showcasing secured access to future capacity.</li>
<li>If credit tightens or execution slips, the weakest links—OEMs and private equity firms backing infra-hungry AI startups—may snap first, with cascading effects on Nvidia, AMD, and TSMC to follow.</li>
</ul>


OpenAI’s growth model relies on an intricate loop of vendor financing, aggressive forward contracts, and $80B+ in projected external capital.
Long-Dated chip commitments seem less about immediate infra demand and more about bolstering OpenAI’s fundraising optics by showcasing secured access to future capacity.
If credit tightens or execution slips, the weakest links—OEMs and private equity firms backing infra-hungry AI startups—may snap first, with cascading effects on Nvidia, AMD, and TSMC to follow.


OpenAI and Its House Built on GPUs, Debt, and Leveraged Demand

United States

Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD) produces semiconductor products and devices. The Company offers products such as microprocessors, embedded microprocessors, chipsets, graphics, video and multimedia products and supplies it to third-party foundries, as well as provides assembling, testing, and packaging services. AMD serves customers worldwide.

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Advanced Micro Devices (AMD US)

First AMD, Now Broadcom. How OpenAI Is Ruining NVIDIA's Party

In partnering with AMD and Broadcom, OpenAI has given huge credibility to AMD as a GPU competitor and Broadcom as a custom accelerator competitor....

William Keating

ASML: No Clarification on 2026, China Procurement in Excess of End-Demand, High NA Start in 2028

ASML's positive management tone lacks material clarification on 2026 revenues. Concerns: China revenue, double counting TSMC + Intel capacity,...

Nicolas Baratte

Citi’s AI Supercycle Thesis Faces a Logic Check

Citi believes AI has sparked a semiconductor upcycle, but warnings about potential overreach and pricing peaks still exist. Investors should be...

Mint Finance

OpenAI and Its House Built on GPUs, Debt, and Leveraged Demand

OpenAI's growth model hinges on vendor financing, forward contracts, and projected external capital, with potential risks for OEMs and private...

Mint Finance

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

First AMD, Now Broadcom. How OpenAI Is Ruining NVIDIA's Party

In partnering with AMD and Broadcom, OpenAI has given huge credibility to AMD as a GPU competitor and Broadcom as a custom accelerator competitor....

William Keating

Intel (INTC.US): Intel’s Share Price Is Encouraging; Caution Warranted on Its Near-Term Continuation

​Intel Corp will hold its earnings call on October 23, recent share price upside is encouraging but performance improvements are needed for a full...

Patrick Liao

ASML: No Clarification on 2026, China Procurement in Excess of End-Demand, High NA Start in 2028

​ASML's positive management tone lacks material clarification on 2026 revenues. Concerns: China revenue, double counting TSMC + Intel capacity,...

Nicolas Baratte

Citi’s AI Supercycle Thesis Faces a Logic Check

​Citi believes AI has sparked a semiconductor upcycle, but warnings about potential overreach and pricing peaks still exist. Investors should be...

Mint Finance

OpenAI and Its House Built on GPUs, Debt, and Leveraged Demand

​OpenAI's growth model hinges on vendor financing, forward contracts, and projected external capital, with potential risks for OEMs and private...

Mint Finance

Intel Corp will hold its earnings call on October 23, recent share price upside is encouraging but performance improvements are needed for a full...

ASML's positive management tone lacks material clarification on 2026 revenues. Concerns: China revenue, double counting TSMC + Intel capacity,...

Citi believes AI has sparked a semiconductor upcycle, but warnings about potential overreach and pricing peaks still exist. Investors should be...

OpenAI's growth model hinges on vendor financing, forward contracts, and projected external capital, with potential risks for OEMs and private...