Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

Equity Bottom-Up

Advanced Micro Devices / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Good 3Q25, good 4Q guidance, optimism that the Server CPU market is growing faster, new GPU MI400 (2H26) will re-accelerate growth. Plus some price increase or higher ASP. Not controversial.</li>
<li>More controversial is Consensus expecting OP margin to jump from 24% (2025) to 31% (2027). There will be leverage as Data Center AI revenues grow – but it looks optimistic.</li>
<li>Valuations are elevated (41x 2026 EPS) for good reasons 1) Server share gains 2) rapid AI growth 3) higher ASP. After a vertical rally, the share price needs some room.</li>
</ul>


Good 3Q25, good 4Q guidance, optimism that the Server CPU market is growing faster, new GPU MI400 (2H26) will re-accelerate growth. Plus some price increase or higher ASP. Not controversial.
More controversial is Consensus expecting OP margin to jump from 24% (2025) to 31% (2027). There will be leverage as Data Center AI revenues grow – but it looks optimistic.
Valuations are elevated (41x 2026 EPS) for good reasons 1) Server share gains 2) rapid AI growth 3) higher ASP. After a vertical rally, the share price needs some room.


AMD: Management Expects Revenue Re-Acceleration from 2H26 with MI400 Launch

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

<ul>
<li>Intel announced Q325 revenues of $13.7 billion, above the high end of the guided range, up 6% QoQ and up 2.8% YoY</li>
<li>Intel forecasted current quarter revenues of $13.3 billion at the midpoint, down $1 billion YoY and down $400 million QoQ</li>
<li>18A yields are not where we need them to be, by the end 2026 they probably will be, and they should be "industry acceptable" by 2027 </li>
</ul>


Intel announced Q325 revenues of $13.7 billion, above the high end of the guided range, up 6% QoQ and up 2.8% YoY
Intel forecasted current quarter revenues of $13.3 billion at the midpoint, down $1 billion YoY and down $400 million QoQ
18A yields are not where we need them to be, by the end 2026 they probably will be, and they should be "industry acceptable" by 2027 


Intel Q325. Solid Quarter But Still No Coherent AI Strategy & 18A Yields Won't Mature Until 2027

AI | Semiconductors | Commodities, Mint Finance

Raghav Vashisht

AI | Semiconductors | Commodities

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>SK Hynix’s 118% net margin is optical noise. The core 76% operating margin reflects true pricing power, but deferred high-value shipments push the execution burden entirely into H2.</li>
<li>Samsung’s 52.2% operating margin is flattered by deferred costs, creating an H2 headwind. However, exploding cash flows are aggressively funding capex, successfully closing the HBM4 qualification gap.</li>
<li>
<strong>Big-Three:</strong> Micron’s print confirms broad pricing strength, but SK Hynix captures the super-normal HBM profits. Despite record operating leverage, the entire sector remains compressed at single-digit forward P/E multiples.</li>
</ul>


SK Hynix’s 118% net margin is optical noise. The core 76% operating margin reflects true pricing power, but deferred high-value shipments push the execution burden entirely into H2.
Samsung’s 52.2% operating margin is flattered by deferred costs, creating an H2 headwind. However, exploding cash flows are aggressively funding capex, successfully closing the HBM4 qualification gap.

Big-Three: Micron’s print confirms broad pricing strength, but SK Hynix captures the super-normal HBM profits. Despite record operating leverage, the entire sector remains compressed at single-digit forward P/E multiples.


[Memory Q2: Part 1] Stripping the Noise from SK Hynix and Samsung’s Q2 Prints

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (TSM US)

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>3Q26 revenue is already reported at NT$1,494.2bn, about US$46.7bn, 2% above the top of the guide; the 15 October release turns on margins, the 4Q guide and 2027.</li>
<li>We expect January 2027 price increases to roughly offset wider 2nm and overseas dilution, holding gross margin near 65-67%; 2027 capex is the bigger unknown.</li>
<li>Target price NT$2,920 (15% upside): 26.9x 2026 EPS, reflecting what we see as a permanent re-rating since 2019; TSMC trades at 17.9x 2027 earnings versus 23.0x for big US tech.</li>
</ul>


3Q26 revenue is already reported at NT$1,494.2bn, about US$46.7bn, 2% above the top of the guide; the 15 October release turns on margins, the 4Q guide and 2027.
We expect January 2027 price increases to roughly offset wider 2nm and overseas dilution, holding gross margin near 65-67%; 2027 capex is the bigger unknown.
Target price NT$2,920 (15% upside): 26.9x 2026 EPS, reflecting what we see as a permanent re-rating since 2019; TSMC trades at 17.9x 2027 earnings versus 23.0x for big US tech.


TSMC 3Q26 Preview: 2027 Price Increases Should Hold Margins; Further Share Upside from Here

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

Shenton Research

Shenton Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

<ul>
<li>We tracked AI models, infrastructure, and M&amp;A this week: Anthropic launched Opus 5, Moonshot moved toward pre-IPO funding, and Alibaba shipped Qwen3.8.</li>
<li>China coverage grouped Qwen3.8, Kimi funding, Zhipu compute and SenseTime capacity, with policy items separated into MOFCOM and MIIT updates.</li>
<li>Infrastructure and funding updates covered AMD, Nvidia, TSMC, Atoms, Mistral, Etched, 01.AI, PsiBot and GigaAI.</li>
</ul>


We tracked AI models, infrastructure, and M&amp;A this week: Anthropic launched Opus 5, Moonshot moved toward pre-IPO funding, and Alibaba shipped Qwen3.8.
China coverage grouped Qwen3.8, Kimi funding, Zhipu compute and SenseTime capacity, with policy items separated into MOFCOM and MIIT updates.
Infrastructure and funding updates covered AMD, Nvidia, TSMC, Atoms, Mistral, Etched, 01.AI, PsiBot and GigaAI.


This Week in AI (Jul 19-25): Opus 5 and Qwen 3.8 Launches; Kimi Targets a Pre-IPO After K3 Release

United States

Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD) produces semiconductor products and devices. The Company offers products such as microprocessors, embedded microprocessors, chipsets, graphics, video and multimedia products and supplies it to third-party foundries, as well as provides assembling, testing, and packaging services. AMD serves customers worldwide.

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Advanced Micro Devices (AMD US)

AMD: Management Expects Revenue Re-Acceleration from 2H26 with MI400 Launch

Positive outlook for Server CPU market growth and new GPU release, but concerns over optimistic margin expectations and high valuations. Share...

Nicolas Baratte

Intel Q325. Solid Quarter But Still No Coherent AI Strategy & 18A Yields Won't Mature Until 2027

18A yields are not where we need them to be, by the end 2026 they probably will be, and they should be "industry acceptable" by 2027

William Keating

[Memory Q2: Part 1] Stripping the Noise from SK Hynix and Samsung’s Q2 Prints

SK Hynix and Samsung show strong operating margins; deferred costs and high-value shipments pose challenges in H2. Micron demonstrates pricing...

Mint Finance

This Week in AI (Jul 19-25): Opus 5 and Qwen 3.8 Launches; Kimi Targets a Pre-IPO After K3 Release

This week in AI: Opus 5 neared Fable 5 at half the price, Kimi targeted a USD 50bn pre-IPO round, Qwen3.8 launched, and China weighed AI controls.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

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AMD: Management Expects Revenue Re-Acceleration from 2H26 with MI400 Launch

​Positive outlook for Server CPU market growth and new GPU release, but concerns over optimistic margin expectations and high valuations. Share...

Nicolas Baratte

Intel Q325. Solid Quarter But Still No Coherent AI Strategy & 18A Yields Won't Mature Until 2027

18A yields are not where we need them to be, by the end 2026 they probably will be, and they should be "industry acceptable" by 2027

William Keating

[Memory Q2: Part 1] Stripping the Noise from SK Hynix and Samsung’s Q2 Prints

​SK Hynix and Samsung show strong operating margins; deferred costs and high-value shipments pose challenges in H2. Micron demonstrates pricing...

Mint Finance

TSMC 3Q26 Preview: 2027 Price Increases Should Hold Margins; Further Share Upside from Here

We expect January 2027 price increases to roughly offset wider 2nm and overseas dilution, holding gross margin near 65-67%; 2027 capex is the...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

This Week in AI (Jul 19-25): Opus 5 and Qwen 3.8 Launches; Kimi Targets a Pre-IPO After K3 Release

This week in AI: Opus 5 neared Fable 5 at half the price, Kimi targeted a USD 50bn pre-IPO round, Qwen3.8 launched, and China weighed AI controls.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Positive outlook for Server CPU market growth and new GPU release, but concerns over optimistic margin expectations and high valuations. Share...

SK Hynix and Samsung show strong operating margins; deferred costs and high-value shipments pose challenges in H2. Micron demonstrates pricing...