Equity & Credit Research

Duncan Chan

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Potential de-escalation may compress risk premiums, but Treasury yields around 4.5–5.0% still compete with equities, suggesting broader participation may remain selective near term.</li>
<li>Aluminium increasingly stands out as inventories declined approximately 7–8% and physical conditions tightened, while copper remains broadly consistent with surplus expectations.</li>
<li>Evidence remains more supportive for energy security and infrastructure themes, including uranium, AI infrastructure and offshore rigs, while coal and lithium still require clearer signs of tightening.</li>
</ul>


Potential de-escalation may compress risk premiums, but Treasury yields around 4.5–5.0% still compete with equities, suggesting broader participation may remain selective near term.
Aluminium increasingly stands out as inventories declined approximately 7–8% and physical conditions tightened, while copper remains broadly consistent with surplus expectations.
Evidence remains more supportive for energy security and infrastructure themes, including uranium, AI infrastructure and offshore rigs, while coal and lithium still require clearer signs of tightening.


US-Iran De-Escalation: Looking Beyond Risk Premiums

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>AI investment has shifted to infrastructure buildout, where growth is driven by rising content per server rather than unit volumes, supporting more stable system-level demand.</li>
<li>Value is concentrated at the server board level, with interconnect offering standardised, architecture-linked exposure, while PCB provides direct but execution-dependent leverage to system complexity.</li>
<li>Earnings visibility depends on alignment between hyperscaler capex and order momentum; divergence signals a shift from expansion to a more volatile digestion phase.</li>
</ul>


AI investment has shifted to infrastructure buildout, where growth is driven by rising content per server rather than unit volumes, supporting more stable system-level demand.
Value is concentrated at the server board level, with interconnect offering standardised, architecture-linked exposure, while PCB provides direct but execution-dependent leverage to system complexity.
Earnings visibility depends on alignment between hyperscaler capex and order momentum; divergence signals a shift from expansion to a more volatile digestion phase.


AI Infrastructure: Value Shifts to the Server Board Level

Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sk-hynix-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16955:1" rel="noopener">SK hynix (000660 KS)</a> gained 6.1% in September and its 2x Leveraged Index rose 9.6%, yet combined long-ETF AUM declined 2.7%.</li>
<li>All seven long-leveraged ETFs recorded reductions in units outstanding, while September net outflows reached KRW 514bn and daily flow activity remained subdued.</li>
<li>In contrast, the inverse ETF’s units outstanding more than doubled and its market capitalisation increased 68%, despite the product losing 17.0% during September.</li>
</ul>



SK hynix (000660 KS) gained 6.1% in September and its 2x Leveraged Index rose 9.6%, yet combined long-ETF AUM declined 2.7%.
All seven long-leveraged ETFs recorded reductions in units outstanding, while September net outflows reached KRW 514bn and daily flow activity remained subdued.
In contrast, the inverse ETF’s units outstanding more than doubled and its market capitalisation increased 68%, despite the product losing 17.0% during September.


SK Hynix (000660 KS): Inverse 2x ETF Units Double as Long 2x ETF Outflows Persist

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

<ul>
<li>We tracked AI models, infrastructure, and M&amp;A; this week: China blocked Meta's $2bn Manus deal; Anthropic weighs a $900bn fundraise.</li>
<li>Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, and Meta all raised full-year capex guidance in Q1 earnings; OpenAI ended Microsoft exclusivity and launched on Amazon Bedrock.</li>
<li>DeepSeek cut API prices and Huawei Ascend chip orders surged across Chinese tech firms; China opensource trend continues.</li>
</ul>


We tracked AI models, infrastructure, and M&amp;A; this week: China blocked Meta's $2bn Manus deal; Anthropic weighs a $900bn fundraise.
Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, and Meta all raised full-year capex guidance in Q1 earnings; OpenAI ended Microsoft exclusivity and launched on Amazon Bedrock.
DeepSeek cut API prices and Huawei Ascend chip orders surged across Chinese tech firms; China opensource trend continues.


This Week in AI (Apr 26-May 2): China Blocks Manus Deal; Anthropic at $900bn

Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Commodities

<ul>
<li>A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook</li>
<li>The doves have started sounding like hawks as the can gets kicked down the road</li>
<li>The Iran conflict is forcing countries to take sides in the new Cold War</li>
</ul>


A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook
The doves have started sounding like hawks as the can gets kicked down the road
The Iran conflict is forcing countries to take sides in the new Cold War


Overview #58 - Central Bankers Are Revolting*

United States

Amazon.com, Inc. is an online retailer that offers a wide range of products. The Company's products include books, music, videotapes, computers, electronics, home and garden, and numerous other products.  Amazon offers personalized shopping services, Web-based credit card payment, and direct shipping to customers.

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Amazon (AMZN US)

US-Iran De-Escalation: Looking Beyond Risk Premiums

Re-sharing as recent market developments continue to raise the question of whether fading geopolitical risk premiums alone are enough to support...

Duncan Chan

AI Infrastructure: Value Shifts to the Server Board Level

Re-sharing as recent AI infrastructure spending and deployment trends continue to reinforce the discussion around where value capture is becoming...

Duncan Chan

SK Hynix (000660 KS): Inverse 2x ETF Units Double as Long 2x ETF Outflows Persist

September gains failed to reverse outflows from SK hynix (000660 KS) long 2x leveraged ETFs, while investors added inverse exposure despite the...

Gaudenz Schneider

This Week in AI (Apr 26-May 2): China Blocks Manus Deal; Anthropic at $900bn

This week in AI: China blocks Meta's $2bn Manus deal; Anthropic weighs $900bn fundraise; Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta all raised capex guidance.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Overview #58 - Central Bankers Are Revolting*

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. We look at the Central Bank meetings and further implications of the...

Rikki Malik

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