Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>August MTD marks the first monthly outflow since launch: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sk-hynix-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16955:1" rel="noopener">SK hynix (000660 KS)</a> 2x leveraged ETFs combined AUM fell 20% to KRW 4.2tn amid KRW 777bn in net outflows.</li>
<li>The 2x Leveraged Index fell 4.7% despite the underlying stock remaining broadly flat, reflecting performance drag in a sideways market.</li>
<li>The 2x inverse ETF lost 12.8% despite a broadly flat underlying stock, highlighting the risks of holding daily-reset products beyond very short trading periods.</li>
</ul>


August MTD marks the first monthly outflow since launch: SK hynix (000660 KS) 2x leveraged ETFs combined AUM fell 20% to KRW 4.2tn amid KRW 777bn in net outflows.
The 2x Leveraged Index fell 4.7% despite the underlying stock remaining broadly flat, reflecting performance drag in a sideways market.
The 2x inverse ETF lost 12.8% despite a broadly flat underlying stock, highlighting the risks of holding daily-reset products beyond very short trading periods.


SK Hynix (000660 KS): 2x Leveraged ETFs Record First Monthly Net Outflow

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist, True Insights

Jeroen Blokland

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist

Build Well-Diversified Multi-Asset Portfolios

True Insights

Our research helps investors build well-diversified multi-asset portfolios and profit from market developments. In addition, our unique and proven Macro – Sentiment – Valuation (MSV) investment framework ensures a consistent flow of new investment opportunities. Together with our market views, these opportunities will be reflected in our live ETF-based Global Multi-Asset Portfolios.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>This week, the approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF took another leap forward. And a poll among investors reveals that this will be a game-changer. </li>
<li>Equities tumbled again, and earnings are to blame. Google is down hard as the ‘Magnificent 7’ delivered mixed earnings, nowhere near good enough, given they are priced for perfection! </li>
<li>And that’s not all. The spike in real yields suggests a whopping decline of 25%(!) of the P/E ratio of the S&amp;P 500 Index.</li>
</ul>


This week, the approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF took another leap forward. And a poll among investors reveals that this will be a game-changer. 
Equities tumbled again, and earnings are to blame. Google is down hard as the ‘Magnificent 7’ delivered mixed earnings, nowhere near good enough, given they are priced for perfection! 
And that’s not all. The spike in real yields suggests a whopping decline of 25%(!) of the P/E ratio of the S&amp;P 500 Index.


The Weekly Market Monitor – Reality Check!

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>TSMC reported revenues for September 2023 of ~NT$180.43 billion, a decrease of 4.4% MoM and a decrease of 13.4 % YoY.</li>
<li>Intel announces intent to spin out its Altera division, its latest endeavour to unlock greater shareholder value</li>
<li>Anthropic seeks yet further billions in funding after just closing an AWS deal worth up to $4 billion</li>
</ul>


TSMC reported revenues for September 2023 of ~NT$180.43 billion, a decrease of 4.4% MoM and a decrease of 13.4 % YoY.
Intel announces intent to spin out its Altera division, its latest endeavour to unlock greater shareholder value
Anthropic seeks yet further billions in funding after just closing an AWS deal worth up to $4 billion


Semiconductor Events Deserving Your Attention @7/10/23

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>As discussed in last week's Compass (9/26/23), we continue to believe the odds of a deeper pullback to SPX 4165-4200/the 200-day MA have increased </li>
<li>Our reasoning continues to be due to the major breakouts in the U.S. dollar (DXY) and Treasury yields (10- and 30-year), coupled with a handful of Sectors/indexes breaking below supports.</li>
<li>We are also monitoring 1-year uptrends on the S&amp;P 500 and Russell 2000 (IWM), currently at 4240 and $173. Flirting with breakdowns below these levels today. Buys in retail/energy shippers</li>
</ul>


As discussed in last week's Compass (9/26/23), we continue to believe the odds of a deeper pullback to SPX 4165-4200/the 200-day MA have increased 
Our reasoning continues to be due to the major breakouts in the U.S. dollar (DXY) and Treasury yields (10- and 30-year), coupled with a handful of Sectors/indexes breaking below supports.
We are also monitoring 1-year uptrends on the S&amp;P 500 and Russell 2000 (IWM), currently at 4240 and $173. Flirting with breakdowns below these levels today. Buys in retail/energy shippers


S&P 500 and Russell 2000 Testing 1-Year Uptrends; "Magnificent Seven" Supports to Watch

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba (9988 HK</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:787:1" rel="noopener">BABA US) </a>will report its June Quarter 2026 results on 20 August and hold its conference call at 7:30 p.m. Hong Kong time.</li>
<li>
Highlights: HK-listed options imply a move broadly in line with Alibaba’s historical earnings-day median, while U.S.-listed options price a materially larger move than historical averages.</li>
<li>
Why Read: Gain insight into Alibaba’s HK-listed earnings-day price history, divergent US/HK pricing, volatility term structure, and index implications ahead of the upcoming results announcement.</li>
</ul>



Alibaba (9988 HK, BABA US) will report its June Quarter 2026 results on 20 August and hold its conference call at 7:30 p.m. Hong Kong time.

Highlights: HK-listed options imply a move broadly in line with Alibaba’s historical earnings-day median, while U.S.-listed options price a materially larger move than historical averages.

Why Read: Gain insight into Alibaba’s HK-listed earnings-day price history, divergent US/HK pricing, volatility term structure, and index implications ahead of the upcoming results announcement.


Alibaba (9988 HK / BABA US) Earnings on 20 Aug: HK and US Options Diverge

United States

Amazon.com, Inc. is an online retailer that offers a wide range of products. The Company's products include books, music, videotapes, computers, electronics, home and garden, and numerous other products.  Amazon offers personalized shopping services, Web-based credit card payment, and direct shipping to customers.

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Amazon (AMZN US)

SK Hynix (000660 KS): 2x Leveraged ETFs Record First Monthly Net Outflow

With combined assets down 20% in August MTD, SK hynix-linked 2x leveraged ETFs recorded their first net outflow since launch as sideways trading...

Gaudenz Schneider

The Weekly Market Monitor – Reality Check!

When something is 'priced for perfection,' disappointment is inevitable. Just ask Google. By the way, a spot Bitcoin ETF is inevitable, too. This...

Jeroen Blokland

Semiconductor Events Deserving Your Attention @7/10/23

TSMC revenues for September 2023 ~NT$180.43 billion, a decrease of 4.4% MoM and a decrease of 13.4 % YoY. Intel announces intent to spin out its...

William Keating

S&P 500 and Russell 2000 Testing 1-Year Uptrends; "Magnificent Seven" Supports to Watch

As discussed last week, we continue to believe the odds of a deeper pullback to $SPX 4165-4200/the 200-day MA have increased following major...

Vermilion Research

Alibaba (9988 HK / BABA US) Earnings on 20 Aug: HK and US Options Diverge

Update: Alibaba’s front-end volatility has repriced sharply. The 21 Aug HK expiry now trades near 90% IV, implying a 5.8% move, while US-listed...

Gaudenz Schneider

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