Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors, Fabricated Knowledge

Douglas O'Laughlin

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors

Fabricated Knowledge

Learn more about the world's most important manufactured product. Meaningful insight, timely analysis, and an occasional investment idea.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>There’s a gold rush in the world of AI for not just GPUs, but for datacenters and the power connections that supply them.</li><li>Imagine this, you just bought 100,000 GPUs from Nvidia and you don’t have a place to put them or the power to feed them.</li><li>Not being first to market is a huge cost, as the GPU pay back times are very quick right now even for the H100.</li></ul>

There’s a gold rush in the world of AI for not just GPUs, but for datacenters and the power connections that supply them.Imagine this, you just bought 100,000 GPUs from Nvidia and you don’t have a place to put them or the power to feed them.Not being first to market is a huge cost, as the GPU pay back times are very quick right now even for the H100.

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Capital Markets

SHEIN Global Holdings / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>New regulations affecting SHEIN and other retailers are becoming visible on the horizon</li>
<li>We believe coming changes will hit SHEIN and its peers harder than traditional retailers</li>
<li>We look at California's SB 707 law as an illustrative example of new challenges facing SHEIN</li>
</ul>


New regulations affecting SHEIN and other retailers are becoming visible on the horizon
We believe coming changes will hit SHEIN and its peers harder than traditional retailers
We look at California's SB 707 law as an illustrative example of new challenges facing SHEIN


SHEIN IPO in Hong Kong | Pressures from New Rules To Grow, Will Hit Low-Price Platforms Hardest

<ul><li>If you pay attention, the Internet has been a bit different lately. Many of the attributes and ways we once interacted with the internet is changing.</li><li>I probably noticed it the most when one of my favorite websites, subredditstats.com showed me this image the other day.</li><li>Reddit’s free API is closing. But so is X (formerly Twitter), and other properties all around the internet are slowly adding limits and closing their doors.</li></ul>

If you pay attention, the Internet has been a bit different lately. Many of the attributes and ways we once interacted with the internet is changing.I probably noticed it the most when one of my favorite websites, subredditstats.com showed me this image the other day.Reddit’s free API is closing. But so is X (formerly Twitter), and other properties all around the internet are slowly adding limits and closing their doors.

<ul><li>Welcome to the Halloween Earnings Edition. It's a spooky time in markets.</li><li>So far, there’s been a lot of volatility this earnings season, specifically around the Magnificent 7. Let’s discuss.</li><li>I won’t discuss each company specifically, but I will focus on the high-level capex commentary.</li></ul>

Welcome to the Halloween Earnings Edition. It's a spooky time in markets.So far, there’s been a lot of volatility this earnings season, specifically around the Magnificent 7. Let’s discuss.I won’t discuss each company specifically, but I will focus on the high-level capex commentary.

Halloween Earnings Season 🎃 (Hyperscalers, TXN, VICR, SK Hynix, KLAC, MXL, INTC, AWE, ACMR, BESI)

Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We’re going thru another iteration of the “AI peak” theory, driven by Hyperscalers’ declining Free Cash Flow. Coinciding with an “AI bubble” narrative, following the April-May stock rally.  </li>
<li>Stocks aren’t expensive. Semiconductors are trading at average PEx (17.7x forward EPS), Hyperscalers at -1 standard deviation (21.1x forward EPS). No valuations bubble. Expectations bubble? Consensus forecasts look reasonable.</li>
<li>Hyperscalers’ declining Free Cash Flows is true. Increasing Debt issuance is true. Also true: Cloud revenues are accelerating, margins are expanding. Most extraordinary is the increase in Remaining Performance Obligations.</li>
</ul>


We’re going thru another iteration of the “AI peak” theory, driven by Hyperscalers’ declining Free Cash Flow. Coinciding with an “AI bubble” narrative, following the April-May stock rally.  
Stocks aren’t expensive. Semiconductors are trading at average PEx (17.7x forward EPS), Hyperscalers at -1 standard deviation (21.1x forward EPS). No valuations bubble. Expectations bubble? Consensus forecasts look reasonable.
Hyperscalers’ declining Free Cash Flows is true. Increasing Debt issuance is true. Also true: Cloud revenues are accelerating, margins are expanding. Most extraordinary is the increase in Remaining Performance Obligations.


AI Is a Bubble, Again? Stocks Aren’t Expensive. Hyperscalers’ Future Revenue Tells a Different Story

United States

Amazon.com, Inc. is an online retailer that offers a wide range of products. The Company's products include books, music, videotapes, computers, electronics, home and garden, and numerous other products.  Amazon offers personalized shopping services, Web-based credit card payment, and direct shipping to customers.

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Amazon (AMZN US)

Crypto Datacenters NAV

There’s a gold rush in the world of AI for not just GPUs, but for datacenters and the power connections that supply them.

Fabricated Knowledge

SHEIN IPO in Hong Kong | Pressures from New Rules To Grow, Will Hit Low-Price Platforms Hardest

In its first day of trading on September 1, SHEIN's shares closed down 0.1% in Hong Kong after initially falling close to 10%. We're re-surfacing a...

Tracking Traffic

The Internet as You Know It Is Dying

Humans are not alone on the internet anymore. That will change the Internet as you know it. If you pay attention, the Internet has been a bit...

Fabricated Knowledge

Halloween Earnings Season 🎃 (Hyperscalers, TXN, VICR, SK Hynix, KLAC, MXL, INTC, AWE, ACMR, BESI)

Welcome to the Halloween Earnings Edition. It's a spooky time in markets. So far, there’s been a lot of volatility this earnings season,...

Fabricated Knowledge

AI Is a Bubble, Again? Stocks Aren’t Expensive. Hyperscalers’ Future Revenue Tells a Different Story

AI peak theory revisited as Hyperscalers' declining Free Cash Flow sparks "AI bubble" narrative. Valuations not bubble, expectations not inflated....

Nicolas Baratte

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Crypto Datacenters NAV

There’s a gold rush in the world of AI for not just GPUs, but for datacenters and the power connections that supply them.

Fabricated Knowledge

SHEIN IPO in Hong Kong | Pressures from New Rules To Grow, Will Hit Low-Price Platforms Hardest

In its first day of trading on September 1, SHEIN's shares closed down 0.1% in Hong Kong after initially falling close to 10%. We're re-surfacing a...

Tracking Traffic

The Internet as You Know It Is Dying

Humans are not alone on the internet anymore. That will change the Internet as you know it. If you pay attention, the Internet has been a bit...

Fabricated Knowledge

Halloween Earnings Season 🎃 (Hyperscalers, TXN, VICR, SK Hynix, KLAC, MXL, INTC, AWE, ACMR, BESI)

Welcome to the Halloween Earnings Edition. It's a spooky time in markets. So far, there’s been a lot of volatility this earnings season,...

Fabricated Knowledge

AI Is a Bubble, Again? Stocks Aren’t Expensive. Hyperscalers’ Future Revenue Tells a Different Story

​AI peak theory revisited as Hyperscalers' declining Free Cash Flow sparks "AI bubble" narrative. Valuations not bubble, expectations not inflated....

Nicolas Baratte

AI peak theory revisited as Hyperscalers' declining Free Cash Flow sparks "AI bubble" narrative. Valuations not bubble, expectations not inflated....