European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Deliveroo shareholders approved DoorDash’s 180p cash offer; only court sanction and procedural steps remain. Settlement could occur as early as 30 July 2025.</li>
<li>At 175.9p, the 2.33% gross spread implies a ~36.3% annualised return assuming 30-day closing.</li>
<li>Amazon counterbid now highly improbable under Rule 2.8; DoorDash bid remains dominant with 97% scenario weighting.</li>
</ul>


Deliveroo shareholders approved DoorDash’s 180p cash offer; only court sanction and procedural steps remain. Settlement could occur as early as 30 July 2025.
At 175.9p, the 2.33% gross spread implies a ~36.3% annualised return assuming 30-day closing.
Amazon counterbid now highly improbable under Rule 2.8; DoorDash bid remains dominant with 97% scenario weighting.


High-Conviction Arbitrage: 36% IRR Possible with 30 July Settlement, Court Approval Secured

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>AMD &amp; NVIDIA both pocket deals to equip 500MW data centers in Saudi Arabia over the next 5 years. </li>
<li>UAE announced plans to build 5GW of data centre capacity with local champion G42 leading the charge. Microsoft and Cerebras were notable by their absence last week. </li>
<li>The Middle East deals are good news for US AI/Technology champions however the benefits will likely take years to fully accrue. </li>
</ul>


AMD &amp; NVIDIA both pocket deals to equip 500MW data centers in Saudi Arabia over the next 5 years. 
UAE announced plans to build 5GW of data centre capacity with local champion G42 leading the charge. Microsoft and Cerebras were notable by their absence last week. 
The Middle East deals are good news for US AI/Technology champions however the benefits will likely take years to fully accrue. 


US Middle East AI Splurge. A Bold Move But Also A Curious Affair

Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>What did hyperscalers say on Capex in March conf calls? Amazon: nothing. Google: maintained. Meta: increase. Microsoft: maintained. No Capex cuts or postponement. </li>
<li>At the opposite, Amazon and Google mention capacity constraints, revenues could be higher with more capacity. All firms mention that AI is a critical building block of future growth. </li>
<li>Financial statements show 1) improving operating margins, 2) higher capex but still higher free cash flow. Positive for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nvidia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5891:1" rel="noopener">NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-manufacturing-company" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11230:1" rel="noopener">Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) (2330 TT)</a> .  </li>
</ul>


What did hyperscalers say on Capex in March conf calls? Amazon: nothing. Google: maintained. Meta: increase. Microsoft: maintained. No Capex cuts or postponement. 
At the opposite, Amazon and Google mention capacity constraints, revenues could be higher with more capacity. All firms mention that AI is a critical building block of future growth. 
Financial statements show 1) improving operating margins, 2) higher capex but still higher free cash flow. Positive for NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) and Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) (2330 TT) .  


Hyperscale Capex Is Maintained or Increased No Cuts or Postponement Capacity Constrain at AMZN GOOG

<ul>
<li>Amazon is positioned to outbid DoorDash with a 200–222p/share offer, implying a valuation based on 12.8–14.0x EV/NTM EBITDA, aligning with trade buyer precedent multiples.</li>
<li>While Amazon’s strategic fit is stronger, regulatory scrutiny from the UK CMA presents material timing and execution risks, likely pushing deal closure into Q1–Q2 2026.</li>
<li>Deliveroo shareholders face a trade-off: faster liquidity at 180p via DoorDash, or 10–23% upside with Amazon at the cost of longer timelines and political uncertainty. <strong>Long ROO LN</strong>.</li>
</ul>


Amazon is positioned to outbid DoorDash with a 200–222p/share offer, implying a valuation based on 12.8–14.0x EV/NTM EBITDA, aligning with trade buyer precedent multiples.
While Amazon’s strategic fit is stronger, regulatory scrutiny from the UK CMA presents material timing and execution risks, likely pushing deal closure into Q1–Q2 2026.
Deliveroo shareholders face a trade-off: faster liquidity at 180p via DoorDash, or 10–23% upside with Amazon at the cost of longer timelines and political uncertainty. Long ROO LN.


Prime Delivery: Amazon’s Route to Outbid DoorDash for Deliveroo

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist, Objective Analysis

Jim Handy

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist

Objective Analysis

Objective Analysis offers third-party independent market research and data for the semiconductor industry and investors in the semiconductor industry.

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs

<ul>
<li>Hyperscaler CapEx could be slowing down, based on 4Q24 spending</li>
<li>Microsoft made a significant cut in Q4, but Amazon, Facebook, and Alibaba all made big increases</li>
<li>Industry CapEx as a percent of revenue has slowed its growth</li>
</ul>


Hyperscaler CapEx could be slowing down, based on 4Q24 spending
Microsoft made a significant cut in Q4, but Amazon, Facebook, and Alibaba all made big increases
Industry CapEx as a percent of revenue has slowed its growth


United States

Amazon.com, Inc. is an online retailer that offers a wide range of products. The Company's products include books, music, videotapes, computers, electronics, home and garden, and numerous other products.  Amazon offers personalized shopping services, Web-based credit card payment, and direct shipping to customers.

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Amazon (AMZN US)

High-Conviction Arbitrage: 36% IRR Possible with 30 July Settlement, Court Approval Secured

Deliveroo shareholders backed DoorDash’s 180p offer. With court sanction due late July, settlement could close by 30 July, offering a ~36% IRR.

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

US Middle East AI Splurge. A Bold Move But Also A Curious Affair

Last week's Middle East deals are good news for US AI/Technology champions however the benefits will likely take years to fully accrue.

William Keating

Hyperscale Capex Is Maintained or Increased No Cuts or Postponement Capacity Constrain at AMZN GOOG

Hyperscalers maintain or increase Capex, mention capacity constraints. Financial statements show improving margins, higher capex and higher free...

Nicolas Baratte

Prime Delivery: Amazon’s Route to Outbid DoorDash for Deliveroo

Amazon could counter DoorDash’s bid for Deliveroo with a 200–222p offer. Strategic upside is clear, but CMA scrutiny means higher regulatory risk...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

IS AI Spending Poised to Fall?

Hyperscaler CapEx growth may be slowing as Microsoft cuts spending in Q4 while Amazon, Facebook, and Alibaba increase theirs, leading to a...

Jim Handy

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Dividend (Yield)

High-Conviction Arbitrage: 36% IRR Possible with 30 July Settlement, Court Approval Secured

Deliveroo shareholders backed DoorDash’s 180p offer. With court sanction due late July, settlement could close by 30 July, offering a ~36% IRR.

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

US Middle East AI Splurge. A Bold Move But Also A Curious Affair

Last week's Middle East deals are good news for US AI/Technology champions however the benefits will likely take years to fully accrue.

William Keating

Hyperscale Capex Is Maintained or Increased No Cuts or Postponement Capacity Constrain at AMZN GOOG

​Hyperscalers maintain or increase Capex, mention capacity constraints. Financial statements show improving margins, higher capex and higher free...

Nicolas Baratte

Prime Delivery: Amazon’s Route to Outbid DoorDash for Deliveroo

Amazon could counter DoorDash’s bid for Deliveroo with a 200–222p offer. Strategic upside is clear, but CMA scrutiny means higher regulatory risk...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

IS AI Spending Poised to Fall?

​Hyperscaler CapEx growth may be slowing as Microsoft cuts spending in Q4 while Amazon, Facebook, and Alibaba increase theirs, leading to a...

Jim Handy

Hyperscalers maintain or increase Capex, mention capacity constraints. Financial statements show improving margins, higher capex and higher free...

Hyperscaler CapEx growth may be slowing as Microsoft cuts spending in Q4 while Amazon, Facebook, and Alibaba increase theirs, leading to a...