Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Review of the conventional arguments (Bloomberg article): the timing gap between Capex and Revenue is the real issue.</li>
<li>Review of history of Tech Bubbles (Krugman): not clear if AI is a bubble, it could keep going for years, but if it bursts it will be worse than 1999-2003.</li>
<li>Best AI comp is Cloud Computing. Both enable new data analytics, new applications. Both are platforms. US Cloud Computing revenues increased 25x in 10 years (2015 to 2024).</li>
</ul>


Review of the conventional arguments (Bloomberg article): the timing gap between Capex and Revenue is the real issue.
Review of history of Tech Bubbles (Krugman): not clear if AI is a bubble, it could keep going for years, but if it bursts it will be worse than 1999-2003.
Best AI comp is Cloud Computing. Both enable new data analytics, new applications. Both are platforms. US Cloud Computing revenues increased 25x in 10 years (2015 to 2024).


What Are the Arguments in Favor and Against an AI Bubble?

European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Deliveroo shareholders approved DoorDash’s 180p cash offer; only court sanction and procedural steps remain. Settlement could occur as early as 30 July 2025.</li>
<li>At 175.9p, the 2.33% gross spread implies a ~36.3% annualised return assuming 30-day closing.</li>
<li>Amazon counterbid now highly improbable under Rule 2.8; DoorDash bid remains dominant with 97% scenario weighting.</li>
</ul>


Deliveroo shareholders approved DoorDash’s 180p cash offer; only court sanction and procedural steps remain. Settlement could occur as early as 30 July 2025.
At 175.9p, the 2.33% gross spread implies a ~36.3% annualised return assuming 30-day closing.
Amazon counterbid now highly improbable under Rule 2.8; DoorDash bid remains dominant with 97% scenario weighting.


High-Conviction Arbitrage: 36% IRR Possible with 30 July Settlement, Court Approval Secured

<ul>
<li>What did hyperscalers say on Capex in March conf calls? Amazon: nothing. Google: maintained. Meta: increase. Microsoft: maintained. No Capex cuts or postponement. </li>
<li>At the opposite, Amazon and Google mention capacity constraints, revenues could be higher with more capacity. All firms mention that AI is a critical building block of future growth. </li>
<li>Financial statements show 1) improving operating margins, 2) higher capex but still higher free cash flow. Positive for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nvidia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5891:1" rel="noopener">NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-manufacturing-company" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11230:1" rel="noopener">Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) (2330 TT)</a> .  </li>
</ul>


What did hyperscalers say on Capex in March conf calls? Amazon: nothing. Google: maintained. Meta: increase. Microsoft: maintained. No Capex cuts or postponement. 
At the opposite, Amazon and Google mention capacity constraints, revenues could be higher with more capacity. All firms mention that AI is a critical building block of future growth. 
Financial statements show 1) improving operating margins, 2) higher capex but still higher free cash flow. Positive for NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) and Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) (2330 TT) .  


Hyperscale Capex Is Maintained or Increased No Cuts or Postponement Capacity Constrain at AMZN GOOG

<ul>
<li>Amazon is positioned to outbid DoorDash with a 200–222p/share offer, implying a valuation based on 12.8–14.0x EV/NTM EBITDA, aligning with trade buyer precedent multiples.</li>
<li>While Amazon’s strategic fit is stronger, regulatory scrutiny from the UK CMA presents material timing and execution risks, likely pushing deal closure into Q1–Q2 2026.</li>
<li>Deliveroo shareholders face a trade-off: faster liquidity at 180p via DoorDash, or 10–23% upside with Amazon at the cost of longer timelines and political uncertainty. <strong>Long ROO LN</strong>.</li>
</ul>


Amazon is positioned to outbid DoorDash with a 200–222p/share offer, implying a valuation based on 12.8–14.0x EV/NTM EBITDA, aligning with trade buyer precedent multiples.
While Amazon’s strategic fit is stronger, regulatory scrutiny from the UK CMA presents material timing and execution risks, likely pushing deal closure into Q1–Q2 2026.
Deliveroo shareholders face a trade-off: faster liquidity at 180p via DoorDash, or 10–23% upside with Amazon at the cost of longer timelines and political uncertainty. Long ROO LN.


Prime Delivery: Amazon’s Route to Outbid DoorDash for Deliveroo

US IPOs and Secondary Offerings, IPO Boutique

IPO Boutique

US IPOs and Secondary Offerings

For more than 20 years, we have been providing research, analysis, commentary and ratings on US Equity Capital Markets to institutional investors (US IPOs and Secondary Offerings). Our vast network of contacts across the Equity Capital Markets and attention-to-detail sets us apart from our competitors.

Since 2012, we have achieved a successful hit rating on 89% of Buy-rated IPOs. The collective “Buy” ratings averaged a first trade of 16.3% above issue.Our Neutral Rated Deals averaged just 2% above the issue price at first trade.

Our written research includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

In addition, we provide a high-touch premium desk access which includes analyst access, as well as real time insights on US IPOs as well as secondary offerings.

IPOs and Secondary Offerings

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>One of the most anticipated IPOs of 2025 has officially filed its S-1 -- CoreWeave (CRWV US) . </li>
<li>Their revenue was $16 million, $229 million, and $1.9 billion for the years ended December 31, 2022, 2023, and 2024, respectively, representing year-over-year growth of 1,346% and 737%, respectively.</li>
<li>According to sources, the debut on CoreWeave Inc. is tentatively scheduled for the last week of March.</li>
</ul>


One of the most anticipated IPOs of 2025 has officially filed its S-1 -- CoreWeave (CRWV US) . 
Their revenue was $16 million, $229 million, and $1.9 billion for the years ended December 31, 2022, 2023, and 2024, respectively, representing year-over-year growth of 1,346% and 737%, respectively.
According to sources, the debut on CoreWeave Inc. is tentatively scheduled for the last week of March.


CoreWeave Inc. IPO (CRWV): Peeking at the Prospectus of Cloud Platform Managing AI Infrastructure

United States

Amazon.com, Inc. is an online retailer that offers a wide range of products. The Company's products include books, music, videotapes, computers, electronics, home and garden, and numerous other products.  Amazon offers personalized shopping services, Web-based credit card payment, and direct shipping to customers.

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Amazon (AMZN US)

What Are the Arguments in Favor and Against an AI Bubble?

Timing gap between Capex and Revenue is the real issue, AI could be a bubble worse than 1999-2003, Cloud Computing is the best AI comp with...

Nicolas Baratte

High-Conviction Arbitrage: 36% IRR Possible with 30 July Settlement, Court Approval Secured

Deliveroo shareholders backed DoorDash’s 180p offer. With court sanction due late July, settlement could close by 30 July, offering a ~36% IRR.

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Hyperscale Capex Is Maintained or Increased No Cuts or Postponement Capacity Constrain at AMZN GOOG

Hyperscalers maintain or increase Capex, mention capacity constraints. Financial statements show improving margins, higher capex and higher free...

Nicolas Baratte

Prime Delivery: Amazon’s Route to Outbid DoorDash for Deliveroo

Amazon could counter DoorDash’s bid for Deliveroo with a 200–222p offer. Strategic upside is clear, but CMA scrutiny means higher regulatory risk...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

CoreWeave Inc. IPO (CRWV): Peeking at the Prospectus of Cloud Platform Managing AI Infrastructure

CoreWeave (CRWV US) files for IPO with impressive revenue growth and a debut expected in March. This article outlines key takeaways from the...

IPO Boutique

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

What Are the Arguments in Favor and Against an AI Bubble?

​Timing gap between Capex and Revenue is the real issue, AI could be a bubble worse than 1999-2003, Cloud Computing is the best AI comp with...

Nicolas Baratte

High-Conviction Arbitrage: 36% IRR Possible with 30 July Settlement, Court Approval Secured

Deliveroo shareholders backed DoorDash’s 180p offer. With court sanction due late July, settlement could close by 30 July, offering a ~36% IRR.

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Hyperscale Capex Is Maintained or Increased No Cuts or Postponement Capacity Constrain at AMZN GOOG

​Hyperscalers maintain or increase Capex, mention capacity constraints. Financial statements show improving margins, higher capex and higher free...

Nicolas Baratte

Prime Delivery: Amazon’s Route to Outbid DoorDash for Deliveroo

Amazon could counter DoorDash’s bid for Deliveroo with a 200–222p offer. Strategic upside is clear, but CMA scrutiny means higher regulatory risk...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

CoreWeave Inc. IPO (CRWV): Peeking at the Prospectus of Cloud Platform Managing AI Infrastructure

​CoreWeave (CRWV US) files for IPO with impressive revenue growth and a debut expected in March. This article outlines key takeaways from the...

IPO Boutique

Timing gap between Capex and Revenue is the real issue, AI could be a bubble worse than 1999-2003, Cloud Computing is the best AI comp with...

Hyperscalers maintain or increase Capex, mention capacity constraints. Financial statements show improving margins, higher capex and higher free...

CoreWeave (CRWV US) files for IPO with impressive revenue growth and a debut expected in March. This article outlines key takeaways from the...