Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Equity Capital Markets

Kokusai Electric  / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Three weeks ago I wrote that KKR's lockup would expire about now in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-ecm-kokusai-elec-6525-kkr-s-lock-up-expiry-in-3-weeks-700mm-clean-up-coming" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:202343" rel="noopener">[Japan ECM] Kokusai Elec (6525) - KKR's Lock Up Expiry in 3 Weeks - $700mm Clean-Up Coming?</a> 
</li>
<li>Today post-close, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/applied-materials-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:283:1" rel="noopener">Applied Materials (AMAT US)</a> announced a 10.7mm share (4.5%) Accelerated Block Offering to be priced tomorrow morning, at an indicated 4.5-6.5% discount. This would put them at 10+%. </li>
<li>This should be very well taken up. There is index demand on the follow. The question is more about the unwind of KKR's last bit. Perhaps to come soon?</li>
</ul>


Three weeks ago I wrote that KKR's lockup would expire about now in [Japan ECM] Kokusai Elec (6525) - KKR's Lock Up Expiry in 3 Weeks - $700mm Clean-Up Coming? 

Today post-close, Applied Materials (AMAT US) announced a 10.7mm share (4.5%) Accelerated Block Offering to be priced tomorrow morning, at an indicated 4.5-6.5% discount. This would put them at 10+%. 
This should be very well taken up. There is index demand on the follow. The question is more about the unwind of KKR's last bit. Perhaps to come soon?


[Japan ECM] Kokusai Elec (6525) - Applied Materials $330mm Selldown

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>LRCX reported September 2025 quarter revenues of $5.32 billion, marginally above the guided midpoint, up 3% QoQ and up 27.7% YoY.</li>
<li>LRCX is forecasting current quarter revenues of $5.2 billion at the midpoint, slightly down sequentially, but up 18% YoY. In other words, the AI boost is coming, just not yet.</li>
<li>The elephant in the room was once again revenue mix from China which accounted for a whopping 43% of sales, up from 35% in the prior quarter. Oh my!</li>
</ul>


LRCX reported September 2025 quarter revenues of $5.32 billion, marginally above the guided midpoint, up 3% QoQ and up 27.7% YoY.
LRCX is forecasting current quarter revenues of $5.2 billion at the midpoint, slightly down sequentially, but up 18% YoY. In other words, the AI boost is coming, just not yet.
The elephant in the room was once again revenue mix from China which accounted for a whopping 43% of sales, up from 35% in the prior quarter. Oh my!


LRCX Q325. Solid Results, Outlook But China Exposure Is A Glaring Red Flag

Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

<ul>
<li>Positive Management tone, as always, but no material clarification on 2026 revenues: China down (back to “normal”), Low NA EUV increase, some High NA but that’s still  pre-production.</li>
<li>ASML has many qualities: monopoly, litho intensity increasing. Downside risks: how low China revenue go, is Mngt still double counting TSMC + Intel capacity, expectations for High NA too high?</li>
<li>ASML is a lot more expensive than AMD, NVDA, MU, SK, TSM for very low growth. I don't like Broadcom for same reason: better Price / Growth in AMD, NVDA.</li>
</ul>


Positive Management tone, as always, but no material clarification on 2026 revenues: China down (back to “normal”), Low NA EUV increase, some High NA but that’s still  pre-production.
ASML has many qualities: monopoly, litho intensity increasing. Downside risks: how low China revenue go, is Mngt still double counting TSMC + Intel capacity, expectations for High NA too high?
ASML is a lot more expensive than AMD, NVDA, MU, SK, TSM for very low growth. I don't like Broadcom for same reason: better Price / Growth in AMD, NVDA.


ASML: No Clarification on 2026, China Procurement in Excess of End-Demand, High NA Start in 2028

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Tekscend Photomask / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tekscend-photomask-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45819:1" rel="noopener">Tekscend Photomask (429A JP)</a>, a manufacturer and distributor of semiconductor photomasks, raised around US$900m in its Japan IPO.</li>
<li>TP is a global provider of photomasks and related support services. It has been the leader in the merchant photomask market in terms of sales since 2016.</li>
<li>In our previous note, we looked at its past performance and valuations. In this note, we will talk about the trading dynamics.</li>
</ul>



Tekscend Photomask (429A JP), a manufacturer and distributor of semiconductor photomasks, raised around US$900m in its Japan IPO.
TP is a global provider of photomasks and related support services. It has been the leader in the merchant photomask market in terms of sales since 2016.
In our previous note, we looked at its past performance and valuations. In this note, we will talk about the trading dynamics.


Tekscend Photomask IPO Trading - Priced at the Top, but Still Relatively Cheap

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tekscend-photomask-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45819:1" rel="noopener">Tekscend Photomask (429A JP)</a> is a global leader in semiconductor photomasks. At the IPO price, Tekscend will raise JPY138 billion (US$910 million). The shares will be listed on 16 October.</li>
<li>I previously discussed the IPO in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/tekscend-photomask-429a-jp-ipo-the-bull-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:203592" rel="noopener">Tekscend Photomask (429A JP) IPO: The Bull Case</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/tekscend-photomask-429a-jp-ipo-the-bear-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:203753" rel="noopener">Tekscend Photomask (429A JP) IPO: The Bear Case</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/tekscend-photomask-429a-jp-ipo-valuation-insights" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:204079" rel="noopener">Tekscend Photomask (429A JP) IPO: Valuation Insights</a>. </li>
<li>The peers have re-rated since the release of the prospectus. My analysis suggests that Tekscend is attractively valued at the IPO price.</li>
</ul>



Tekscend Photomask (429A JP) is a global leader in semiconductor photomasks. At the IPO price, Tekscend will raise JPY138 billion (US$910 million). The shares will be listed on 16 October.
I previously discussed the IPO in Tekscend Photomask (429A JP) IPO: The Bull Case, Tekscend Photomask (429A JP) IPO: The Bear Case and Tekscend Photomask (429A JP) IPO: Valuation Insights. 
The peers have re-rated since the release of the prospectus. My analysis suggests that Tekscend is attractively valued at the IPO price.


Tekscend Photomask (429A JP) IPO: Trading Debut

United States

Applied Materials, Inc. develops, manufactures, markets, and services semiconductor wafer fabrication equipment and related spare parts for the worldwide semiconductor industry.  The Company's customers include semiconductor wafer and integrated circuit manufacturers, flat panel liquid crystal displays, solar photovoltaic cells and modules and other electronic devices manufacturers.

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Applied Materials (AMAT US)

[Japan ECM] Kokusai Elec (6525) - Applied Materials $330mm Selldown

Kokusai Electric's recent selldown by AMAT has been well-absorbed and with shares up nearly 10% today on AI-related excitement in the hardware/SPE...

Travis Lundy

LRCX Q325. Solid Results, Outlook But China Exposure Is A Glaring Red Flag

The elephant in the room was once again revenue mix from China which accounted for a whopping 43% of sales, up from 35% in the prior quarter. Oh my!

William Keating

ASML: No Clarification on 2026, China Procurement in Excess of End-Demand, High NA Start in 2028

ASML's positive management tone lacks material clarification on 2026 revenues. Concerns: China revenue, double counting TSMC + Intel capacity,...

Nicolas Baratte

Tekscend Photomask IPO Trading - Priced at the Top, but Still Relatively Cheap

Tekscend Photomask (429A JP), a manufacturer and distributor of semiconductor photomasks, raised around US$900m in its Japan IPO. In this note, we...

Sumeet Singh

Tekscend Photomask (429A JP) IPO: Trading Debut

The peers have re-rated since the release of the prospectus. My analysis suggests that Tekscend is attractively valued at the IPO price.

Arun George

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

[Japan ECM] Kokusai Elec (6525) - Applied Materials $330mm Selldown

Kokusai Electric's recent selldown by AMAT has been well-absorbed and with shares up nearly 10% today on AI-related excitement in the hardware/SPE...

Travis Lundy

LRCX Q325. Solid Results, Outlook But China Exposure Is A Glaring Red Flag

The elephant in the room was once again revenue mix from China which accounted for a whopping 43% of sales, up from 35% in the prior quarter. Oh my!

William Keating

ASML: No Clarification on 2026, China Procurement in Excess of End-Demand, High NA Start in 2028

​ASML's positive management tone lacks material clarification on 2026 revenues. Concerns: China revenue, double counting TSMC + Intel capacity,...

Nicolas Baratte

Tekscend Photomask IPO Trading - Priced at the Top, but Still Relatively Cheap

Tekscend Photomask (429A JP), a manufacturer and distributor of semiconductor photomasks, raised around US$900m in its Japan IPO. In this note, we...

Sumeet Singh

Tekscend Photomask (429A JP) IPO: Trading Debut

The peers have re-rated since the release of the prospectus. My analysis suggests that Tekscend is attractively valued at the IPO price.

Arun George

ASML's positive management tone lacks material clarification on 2026 revenues. Concerns: China revenue, double counting TSMC + Intel capacity,...