Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>LRCX reported FY 25Q4 revenues of $5.17 billion, + 10% QoQ, + 33% YoY and up $170 million from the guided midpoint.  </li>
<li>For FY 2025 as a whole, revenue amounted to $18.44 billion, up 23% YoY and their highest ever annual revenue, exceeding the previous record by roughly $1 billion.</li>
<li>China revenues are climbing once again and now represent 35% of sales and are on track to go even higher in the current quarter. That's a concern..</li>
</ul>


LRCX reported FY 25Q4 revenues of $5.17 billion, + 10% QoQ, + 33% YoY and up $170 million from the guided midpoint.  
For FY 2025 as a whole, revenue amounted to $18.44 billion, up 23% YoY and their highest ever annual revenue, exceeding the previous record by roughly $1 billion.
China revenues are climbing once again and now represent 35% of sales and are on track to go even higher in the current quarter. That's a concern..


LRCX FY 25Q4. Record Quarter, Record Year But Beware Tariff Threats & China Exposure

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>KKR HKE Investment is offering 30m shares (12.86% of shares out) of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kokusai-electric-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40152:1" rel="noopener">Kokusai Electric (6525 JP)</a> in a secondary offering that could raise up to JPY 91bn (US$620m).</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/applied-materials-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:283:1" rel="noopener">Applied Materials (AMAT US)</a> will become the largest shareholder in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kokusai-electric-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40152:1" rel="noopener">Kokusai Electric (6525 JP)</a> after the placement.</li>
<li>There will not be a lot of buying from passive trackers following the placement, but it could ease the way for inclusion of the stock in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 Index</a>.</li>
</ul>


KKR HKE Investment is offering 30m shares (12.86% of shares out) of Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) in a secondary offering that could raise up to JPY 91bn (US$620m).

Applied Materials (AMAT US) will become the largest shareholder in Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) after the placement.
There will not be a lot of buying from passive trackers following the placement, but it could ease the way for inclusion of the stock in the Nikkei 225 Index.


Kokusai Electric (6525 JP): Small Index Impact for Now, but Could Lead to Something Bigger

Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

<ul>
<li>2Q25 huge miss, even excluding restructuring costs. 3Q guidance is “back to normal” but how to put any trust in guidance after the 2Q miss? Better wait for 3Q earnings. </li>
<li>Consensus will revised down sharply. 2025 definitely too high. 2027 expectations of a sharp margins improvement require a perfect alignment of the stars. </li>
<li>New CEO who is cleaning up the organization and refocusing Intel on what is required: fixing manufacturing, regaining x86 market share. It’s a good start, but can take 2-3 years.</li>
</ul>


2Q25 huge miss, even excluding restructuring costs. 3Q guidance is “back to normal” but how to put any trust in guidance after the 2Q miss? Better wait for 3Q earnings. 
Consensus will revised down sharply. 2025 definitely too high. 2027 expectations of a sharp margins improvement require a perfect alignment of the stars. 
New CEO who is cleaning up the organization and refocusing Intel on what is required: fixing manufacturing, regaining x86 market share. It’s a good start, but can take 2-3 years.


Intel 2Q25: Getting Worse. Excluding Restructuring Charges, GM Miss by 700bps, Non-GAAP OP Negative.

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Kokusai Electric  / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>KKR is looking to raise approximately US$620m through an accelerated secondary offering for around 13% of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kokusai-electric-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40152:1" rel="noopener">Kokusai Electric (6525 JP)</a>'s (KE) stock.</li>
<li>KKR had sold in the IPO and undertaken an extended selldown in July 2024 as well. Hence, this deal is somewhat well flagged.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.</li>
</ul>


KKR is looking to raise approximately US$620m through an accelerated secondary offering for around 13% of Kokusai Electric (6525 JP)'s (KE) stock.
KKR had sold in the IPO and undertaken an extended selldown in July 2024 as well. Hence, this deal is somewhat well flagged.
In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.


Kokusai Electric Placement - Well Flagged but past Deal Didn’t Do Well

Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

Vanguard Intl Semiconductor / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vanguard-international-semi" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16011:1" rel="noopener">Vanguard Intl Semiconductor (5347 TT)'</a>s 3Q25 outlook shows slight improvement over 2Q25, potentially around +5%.  </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vanguard-international-semi" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16011:1" rel="noopener">Vanguard Intl Semiconductor (5347 TT)</a> overall utilization expected to reach around 75–80% in 3Q25, with 0.18µm loading is nearly full.</li>
<li>Progress on Vanguard’s Singapore 12” fab is still in early stages, with the main constraint being the equipment move-in schedule.  </li>
</ul>



Vanguard Intl Semiconductor (5347 TT)'s 3Q25 outlook shows slight improvement over 2Q25, potentially around +5%.  

Vanguard Intl Semiconductor (5347 TT) overall utilization expected to reach around 75–80% in 3Q25, with 0.18µm loading is nearly full.
Progress on Vanguard’s Singapore 12” fab is still in early stages, with the main constraint being the equipment move-in schedule.  


Vanguard (5347.TT): The 3Q25 Outlook Is Expected to Improve by Around 5% QoQ.

United States

Applied Materials, Inc. develops, manufactures, markets, and services semiconductor wafer fabrication equipment and related spare parts for the worldwide semiconductor industry.  The Company's customers include semiconductor wafer and integrated circuit manufacturers, flat panel liquid crystal displays, solar photovoltaic cells and modules and other electronic devices manufacturers.

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Applied Materials (AMAT US)

LRCX FY 25Q4. Record Quarter, Record Year But Beware Tariff Threats & China Exposure

China revenues are climbing once again and now represent 35% of sales and are on track to go even higher in the current quarter. That's a concern..

William Keating

Kokusai Electric (6525 JP): Small Index Impact for Now, but Could Lead to Something Bigger

Kokusai Electric has traded in a tight range following its placement. 50m shares have traded since then vs the 30m placement shares. The stock has...

Brian Freitas

Intel 2Q25: Getting Worse. Excluding Restructuring Charges, GM Miss by 700bps, Non-GAAP OP Negative.

Intel's 2Q25 miss raises doubts on 3Q guidance, consensus to be revised down sharply. New CEO focusing on fixing manufacturing and regaining...

Nicolas Baratte

Kokusai Electric Placement - Well Flagged but past Deal Didn’t Do Well

KKR is looking to raise approximately US$620m through an accelerated secondary offering for around 13% of Kokusai Electric (6525 JP)'s (KE) stock.

Sumeet Singh

Vanguard (5347.TT): The 3Q25 Outlook Is Expected to Improve by Around 5% QoQ.

Vanguard Intl Semiconductor's 3Q25 outlook sees slight improvement over 2Q25, with utilization expected to reach 75-80% and progress on Singapore...

Patrick Liao

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LRCX FY 25Q4. Record Quarter, Record Year But Beware Tariff Threats & China Exposure

China revenues are climbing once again and now represent 35% of sales and are on track to go even higher in the current quarter. That's a concern..

William Keating

Kokusai Electric (6525 JP): Small Index Impact for Now, but Could Lead to Something Bigger

Kokusai Electric has traded in a tight range following its placement. 50m shares have traded since then vs the 30m placement shares. The stock has...

Brian Freitas

Intel 2Q25: Getting Worse. Excluding Restructuring Charges, GM Miss by 700bps, Non-GAAP OP Negative.

​Intel's 2Q25 miss raises doubts on 3Q guidance, consensus to be revised down sharply. New CEO focusing on fixing manufacturing and regaining...

Nicolas Baratte

Kokusai Electric Placement - Well Flagged but past Deal Didn’t Do Well

KKR is looking to raise approximately US$620m through an accelerated secondary offering for around 13% of Kokusai Electric (6525 JP)'s (KE) stock.

Sumeet Singh

Vanguard (5347.TT): The 3Q25 Outlook Is Expected to Improve by Around 5% QoQ.

​Vanguard Intl Semiconductor's 3Q25 outlook sees slight improvement over 2Q25, with utilization expected to reach 75-80% and progress on Singapore...

Patrick Liao

Intel's 2Q25 miss raises doubts on 3Q guidance, consensus to be revised down sharply. New CEO focusing on fixing manufacturing and regaining...

Vanguard Intl Semiconductor's 3Q25 outlook sees slight improvement over 2Q25, with utilization expected to reach 75-80% and progress on Singapore...