Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Last year with earnings, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ushio-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6640:1" rel="noopener">Ushio Inc (6925 JP)</a> announced a HUUUGE buyback discussed in  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/huuuge-ushio-6925-buyback" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:102028" rel="noopener">HUUUGE Ushio (6925) Buyback</a>. The headline was 17% of shares out. They ended up buying 13.2%. </li>
<li>Last year the stock popped on the news. Then shares went sideways for months. Then they went up on stable (bad) <em>earnings</em> guidance in H2. Today they beat Q3-updated guidance.</li>
<li>But today they announced a "<a href="https://www.ushio.co.jp/documents/ir/library/plan/ushio_plan2024_e.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">new growth strategy</a>" to 2030, and guided to a SHARP (-60%) drop in OP and NP to March 2025, and announced a HUUUGE Buyback. Again.</li>
</ul>


Last year with earnings, Ushio Inc (6925 JP) announced a HUUUGE buyback discussed in  HUUUGE Ushio (6925) Buyback. The headline was 17% of shares out. They ended up buying 13.2%. 
Last year the stock popped on the news. Then shares went sideways for months. Then they went up on stable (bad) earnings guidance in H2. Today they beat Q3-updated guidance.
But today they announced a "new growth strategy" to 2030, and guided to a SHARP (-60%) drop in OP and NP to March 2025, and announced a HUUUGE Buyback. Again.


Another HUGE Ushio (6925) Buyback After A HUGE Buyback Last Year

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Q124 revenues of 2.36 billion, $60 million above the guided midpoint, down 5% QoQ and down 3% YoY.</li>
<li>Current quarter revenue guidance of $2.5 billion representing a ~6% QoQ increase and about the same YoY.</li>
<li>Share price close to record highs yet CY2024 outlook is tepid while the massive over reliance on China just keeps on going</li>
</ul>


Q124 revenues of 2.36 billion, $60 million above the guided midpoint, down 5% QoQ and down 3% YoY.
Current quarter revenue guidance of $2.5 billion representing a ~6% QoQ increase and about the same YoY.
Share price close to record highs yet CY2024 outlook is tepid while the massive over reliance on China just keeps on going


KLAC. Priced For Perfection In 2025 & Beyond

<ul>
<li>Q124 revenues of $3.79 billion, pretty much flat sequentially both QoQ and YoY, and also marginally better than guidance.</li>
<li>Looking ahead, the company forecasted Q224 revenues $3.8 billion, i.e. flat QoQ. Still no full year 2024 outlook</li>
<li>Technology transitions such as GAA, Backside Power, molybdenum replacing tungsten &amp; the rise of generative AI will all be growth drivers in 2025 &amp; beyond </li>
</ul>


Q124 revenues of $3.79 billion, pretty much flat sequentially both QoQ and YoY, and also marginally better than guidance.
Looking ahead, the company forecasted Q224 revenues $3.8 billion, i.e. flat QoQ. Still no full year 2024 outlook
Technology transitions such as GAA, Backside Power, molybdenum replacing tungsten &amp; the rise of generative AI will all be growth drivers in 2025 &amp; beyond 


LRCX. Mounting Tailwinds Bode Well For 2025 & Beyond

<ul>
<li>ASML reported Q124 revenues of €5.3 billion, in line with expectations, down 27% QoQ and down 21% YoY.</li>
<li>Guided Q224 for €5.95 billion, down ~23% YoY. This implies H224 will have to be much stronger than H124 in order to maintain full year 2024 guidance of flat YoY</li>
<li>New order intake was €3.6 billion, down significantly from the €9.2 billion in the prior quarter, and challenging the narrative of a strong growth year in 2025</li>
</ul>


ASML reported Q124 revenues of €5.3 billion, in line with expectations, down 27% QoQ and down 21% YoY.
Guided Q224 for €5.95 billion, down ~23% YoY. This implies H224 will have to be much stronger than H124 in order to maintain full year 2024 guidance of flat YoY
New order intake was €3.6 billion, down significantly from the €9.2 billion in the prior quarter, and challenging the narrative of a strong growth year in 2025


ASML. Maintaining 2024 Guidance Despite Sharp Decline In New Bookings

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

Kokusai Electric  / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kokusai-electric-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40152:1" rel="noopener">Kokusai Electric (6525 JP)</a>’s 180-day IPO lock-up period for 71% of outstanding shares expires on 22 April. The shares exiting the lock-up period are worth US$4.8 billion.</li>
<li>The likely seller will be <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kkr-co-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27333:1" rel="noopener">KKR &amp; (KKR US)</a> as it was the sole selling shareholder in the IPO. The shares are currently trading at 2.4x the IPO price.</li>
<li>Kokusai anticipates a return to growth and margin improvement in FY24. However, Kokusai trades at a material premium to peer multiples and is fully priced. </li>
</ul>



Kokusai Electric (6525 JP)’s 180-day IPO lock-up period for 71% of outstanding shares expires on 22 April. The shares exiting the lock-up period are worth US$4.8 billion.
The likely seller will be KKR &amp; (KKR US) as it was the sole selling shareholder in the IPO. The shares are currently trading at 2.4x the IPO price.
Kokusai anticipates a return to growth and margin improvement in FY24. However, Kokusai trades at a material premium to peer multiples and is fully priced. 


Kokusai Electric (6525 JP): The US$4.8 Billion Lock up Expiry

United States

Applied Materials, Inc. develops, manufactures, markets, and services semiconductor wafer fabrication equipment and related spare parts for the worldwide semiconductor industry.  The Company's customers include semiconductor wafer and integrated circuit manufacturers, flat panel liquid crystal displays, solar photovoltaic cells and modules and other electronic devices manufacturers.

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Applied Materials (AMAT US)

Another HUGE Ushio (6925) Buyback After A HUGE Buyback Last Year

Last May Ushio guided down earnings but announced a huge buyback. The stock popped on Day1 then went sideways. This year, they guided down earnings...

Travis Lundy

KLAC. Priced For Perfection In 2025 & Beyond

Q124 revenue $2.36 billion, -5% QoQ & -3% YoY. Current quarter guidance $2.5 billion, +6% QoQ, same YoY. China revenue rose to 42%, same as for...

William Keating

LRCX. Mounting Tailwinds Bode Well For 2025 & Beyond

Q124 revenues $3.79 billion, flat QoQ and YoY. Current quarter revenue guide also flat. China revenues up 2 points to 42%. I can see this becoming...

William Keating

ASML. Maintaining 2024 Guidance Despite Sharp Decline In New Bookings

Q124 revenues of €5.3 billion, in line, -27% QoQ & -21% YoY. Q224 guidance of €5.95 billion, -23% YoY > H2 will must be ++ versus H1.New orders of...

William Keating

Kokusai Electric (6525 JP): The US$4.8 Billion Lock up Expiry

Kokusai’s 180-day IPO lock-up period for 71% of outstanding shares expires on 22 April. Kokusai trades at a material premium to peer multiples and...

Arun George

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