India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic, Beat the Street

Sudarshan Bhandari

India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic

Beat the Street

Beat The Street was founded by Nimish Maheshwari and Sudarshan Bhandari, both of whom are Chartered Accountants by Profession, known for their expert analysis in the fields of Business, Sectoral analysis, and Corporate governance.

With a strong social media presence of 45,000+ Subscribers across various platforms, they are considered trusted voices in the industry. Their insights and analysis have been featured in some of India’s most prominent publications, including the Economic Times, Dalal Street Investment Journal, The Morning Context, and The Ken.

Their analysis on Bankrupt & Insolvent companies has been instrumental in saving investors from significant losses. They have a keen eye for identifying red flags and has identified exclusive redflags earlier in Vedanta, Nykaa, Dhani Services, Adani and many more.

Read Business Not Stock Prices

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Despite a 100-bps rate cut by RBI, banks face margin pressure as lending rates fall faster than deposit repricing. </li>
<li>Credit growth has slowed sharply, while deposit growth is improving unevenly - tightening liquidity conditions, especially for private banks and SFBs.</li>
<li>Valuations remain attractive despite near-term earnings stress, supported by stable asset quality, treasury gains, and long-term confidence in sector fundamentals.</li>
</ul>


Despite a 100-bps rate cut by RBI, banks face margin pressure as lending rates fall faster than deposit repricing. 
Credit growth has slowed sharply, while deposit growth is improving unevenly - tightening liquidity conditions, especially for private banks and SFBs.
Valuations remain attractive despite near-term earnings stress, supported by stable asset quality, treasury gains, and long-term confidence in sector fundamentals.


Q1FY26 Banking Sector Report: How Repo Rate Cuts Are Reshaping the Sector?

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Axis Direct

Axis Direct

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Axis Direct is the flagship brand under Axis Securities Limited, a subsidiary of Axis Bank in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>The systemic credit growth (as of 13th June, 2025) has derailed to &lt;10%.</li><li>This can be attributed to a meaningful slowdown in the unsecured loans amidst continued asset quality challenges alongside banks, mainly private banks, intending to bring down their LDRs to a balanced level.</li><li>We expect the bank under our coverage to deliver ~11% YoY credit growth, marginally ahead of industry growth. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The systemic credit growth (as of 13th June, 2025) has derailed to &lt;10%.This can be attributed to a meaningful slowdown in the unsecured loans amidst continued asset quality challenges alongside banks, mainly private banks, intending to bring down their LDRs to a balanced level.We expect the bank under our coverage to deliver ~11% YoY credit growth, marginally ahead of industry growth. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Q1FY26 Earnings Preview - Banks, Financial Services and Insurance (BFSI)

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index / Technical Analysis

Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index (SHCOMP INDEX)

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).</li>
<li>We will maintain our bullish intermediate-term view as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the SPX and ACWI-US are above 5700-5785 and $119-$121.</li>
<li>$125-$126 and $123-$123.50 are short-term supports to watch on ACWI-US; we will maintain our near-term bullish outlook as long as $123 support holds.</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).
We will maintain our bullish intermediate-term view as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the SPX and ACWI-US are above 5700-5785 and $119-$121.
$125-$126 and $123-$123.50 are short-term supports to watch on ACWI-US; we will maintain our near-term bullish outlook as long as $123 support holds.


China and Japan Breaking Out -- Buy; Bullish Outlook Intact; U.S. Dollar (DXY) Remains Weak

Market & Forensics Analyst, Beat the Street

Nimish Maheshwari

Market & Forensics Analyst

<ul>
<li>The banking sector will likely see earnings growth bottom out in FY26, with the second half potentially performing better than the first half as deposit rate reductions eventually flow through.</li>
<li>This divergence between declining lending rates and sticky deposit costs is the core driver of NIM compression.</li>
<li>This monetary easing is expected to exert downward pressure on banks' lending yields, impacting NIMs, particularly in the first half of fiscal year 2026 (1HFY26). </li>
</ul>


The banking sector will likely see earnings growth bottom out in FY26, with the second half potentially performing better than the first half as deposit rate reductions eventually flow through.
This divergence between declining lending rates and sticky deposit costs is the core driver of NIM compression.
This monetary easing is expected to exert downward pressure on banks' lending yields, impacting NIMs, particularly in the first half of fiscal year 2026 (1HFY26). 


Impact of Rate Cut on Indian Banking Sector: NIMs & Earnings to Contract Further Amid Slowdown

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

HDFC securities is the best online trading platform for stocks, IPOs, mutual fund in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>HCL Technologies: HCL Tech demonstrated resilient performance across its services (+0.7% QoQ CC) and software businesses (+4.9% YoY CC) amidst a global environment characterised by increasing uncertainty and reduced discretionary spending</li><li>While IT services revenue saw a slight sequential decline (-0.3% QoQ CC), the ER&amp;D revenue registered strong growth of 5.5% QoQ CC, and the software business was impacted by seasonality</li><li>Looking ahead, HCL Tech anticipates a modest growth outlook (2-5% YoY CC) with stable profitability (EBIT 18-19%), acknowledging the potential for further deterioration in the macroeconomic environment that could impact client IT spending</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HCL Technologies: HCL Tech demonstrated resilient performance across its services (+0.7% QoQ CC) and software businesses (+4.9% YoY CC) amidst a global environment characterised by increasing uncertainty and reduced discretionary spendingWhile IT services revenue saw a slight sequential decline (-0.3% QoQ CC), the ER&amp;D revenue registered strong growth of 5.5% QoQ CC, and the software business was impacted by seasonalityLooking ahead, HCL Tech anticipates a modest growth outlook (2-5% YoY CC) with stable profitability (EBIT 18-19%), acknowledging the potential for further deterioration in the macroeconomic environment that could impact client IT spendingContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily: HCL Technologies, Havells India, AU Small Finance Bank...

India

AU Small Finance Bank Limited is an Indian scheduled commercial small finance bank. It offers a diverse range of products including savings accounts, current accounts, fixed deposits, loans (vehicle, MSME, housing, personal, gold, agriculture), debit and credit cards, and insurance. The company was founded in 1996 and is headquartered in Jaipur, Rajasthan, India.

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AU Small Finance Bank (AUBANK IN)

Q1FY26 Banking Sector Report: How Repo Rate Cuts Are Reshaping the Sector?

RBI's rate cut leads to margin pressure for banks as lending rates drop faster than deposit rates, impacting credit growth and liquidity...

Sudarshan Bhandari

Q1FY26 Earnings Preview - Banks, Financial Services and Insurance (BFSI)

The systemic credit growth (as of 13th June, 2025) has derailed to <10%. This can be attributed to a meaningful slowdown in the unsecured loans...

Axis Direct

China and Japan Breaking Out -- Buy; Bullish Outlook Intact; U.S. Dollar (DXY) Remains Weak

China's Shanghai Composite and Japan's TOPIX and TOPIX Small indexes Breaking Out -- Buy; Bullish Outlook Intact on global equities $ACWI; U.S....

Vermilion Research

Impact of Rate Cut on Indian Banking Sector: NIMs & Earnings to Contract Further Amid Slowdown

Banking sector earnings growth expected to improve in FY26 as deposit rate reductions flow through, but NIM compression likely due to declining...

Nimish Maheshwari

HSIE Results Daily: HCL Technologies, Havells India, AU Small Finance Bank...

While IT services revenue saw a slight sequential decline (-0.3% QoQ CC), the ER&D revenue registered strong growth of 5.5% QoQ CC, and the...

HDFC Securities

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Q1FY26 Banking Sector Report: How Repo Rate Cuts Are Reshaping the Sector?

​RBI's rate cut leads to margin pressure for banks as lending rates drop faster than deposit rates, impacting credit growth and liquidity...

Sudarshan Bhandari

Q1FY26 Earnings Preview - Banks, Financial Services and Insurance (BFSI)

The systemic credit growth (as of 13th June, 2025) has derailed to <10%. This can be attributed to a meaningful slowdown in the unsecured loans...

Axis Direct

China and Japan Breaking Out -- Buy; Bullish Outlook Intact; U.S. Dollar (DXY) Remains Weak

China's Shanghai Composite and Japan's TOPIX and TOPIX Small indexes Breaking Out -- Buy; Bullish Outlook Intact on global equities $ACWI; U.S....

Vermilion Research

Impact of Rate Cut on Indian Banking Sector: NIMs & Earnings to Contract Further Amid Slowdown

​Banking sector earnings growth expected to improve in FY26 as deposit rate reductions flow through, but NIM compression likely due to declining...

Nimish Maheshwari

HSIE Results Daily: HCL Technologies, Havells India, AU Small Finance Bank...

While IT services revenue saw a slight sequential decline (-0.3% QoQ CC), the ER&D revenue registered strong growth of 5.5% QoQ CC, and the...

HDFC Securities

RBI's rate cut leads to margin pressure for banks as lending rates drop faster than deposit rates, impacting credit growth and liquidity...

Banking sector earnings growth expected to improve in FY26 as deposit rate reductions flow through, but NIM compression likely due to declining...