US-EU Index Rebalances / Quantitative Researcher

Dimitris Ioannidis

Global Financial Data and Analytics Platform

ORTEX

ORTEX is a global financial data and analytics platform providing real-time securities lending and short interest data, index rebalance data, holdings and insider transactions, trading signals, corporate actions and news,  stock machine learning and factor scores and other analytics. The majority of the data are downloadable and accessible through APIs.

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/schibsted-asa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22250:1" rel="noopener">Schibsted/Vend Marketplaces (VENDB NO)</a> is the highest ranked non-constituent. However, its addition is uncertain due to share class liquidity.</li>
<li>The main forecasted additions are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zegona-communications-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25686:1" rel="noopener">Zegona Communications (ZEG LN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nordex-se" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21682:1" rel="noopener">Nordex SE (NDX1 GR)</a> following price rallies.</li>
<li>The main forecasted deletions are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/verallia" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36586:1" rel="noopener">Verallia (VRLA FP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/banca-popolare-di-sondrio-scar" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21166:1" rel="noopener">Banca Popolare Di Sondrio Scar (BPSO IM)</a> following tender offers that significantly reduced their free float.</li>
</ul>



Schibsted/Vend Marketplaces (VENDB NO) is the highest ranked non-constituent. However, its addition is uncertain due to share class liquidity.
The main forecasted additions are Zegona Communications (ZEG LN) and Nordex SE (NDX1 GR) following price rallies.
The main forecasted deletions are Verallia (VRLA FP) and Banca Popolare Di Sondrio Scar (BPSO IM) following tender offers that significantly reduced their free float.


STOXX Europe600 Sep25 Forecast: ZEG, NDX1, FRA to Enter; VRLA, BPSO, EMBRACB to Exit

European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>BBVA’s bid for Sabadell remains underwater, with a –6.8% spread despite a 29% BBVA's rally. The latest exchange ratio worsens optics; a cash bump may be needed to secure acceptance.</li>
<li>Legal and regulatory overhang persists, with BBVA appealing Spain's three-year integration block. The outcome may reshape synergy capture but remains slow-moving, leaving short-term deal value limited and execution uncertain.</li>
<li>Tactical opportunity remains in long SAB / short BBVA, with September’s acceptance window approaching. Unless terms improve, rejection risk is high; fundamentals and shareholder sentiment increasingly favour Sabadell’s standalone path.</li>
</ul>


BBVA’s bid for Sabadell remains underwater, with a –6.8% spread despite a 29% BBVA's rally. The latest exchange ratio worsens optics; a cash bump may be needed to secure acceptance.
Legal and regulatory overhang persists, with BBVA appealing Spain's three-year integration block. The outcome may reshape synergy capture but remains slow-moving, leaving short-term deal value limited and execution uncertain.
Tactical opportunity remains in long SAB / short BBVA, with September’s acceptance window approaching. Unless terms improve, rejection risk is high; fundamentals and shareholder sentiment increasingly favour Sabadell’s standalone path.


BBVA-Sabadell: Spread Too Thin, Sabadell Terms Weaken Again

Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentari / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The main forecasted additions are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/banco-bilbao-vizcaya-argentari" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21251:1" rel="noopener">Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentari (BBVA SM)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rheinmetall-ag" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21700:1" rel="noopener">Rheinmetall AG (RHM GR)</a> as they are both surpassing the entry rank.</li>
<li>The main forecasted deletions are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mercedes-benz-group-ag" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21602:1" rel="noopener">Mercedes-Benz Group (MBG GR)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/basf-se" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21585:1" rel="noopener">BASF (BAS GR)</a> as they are both below the exit rank.</li>
<li>The highest-ranked among <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/deutsche-bank-ag-40d2d02f-a52f-4d36-a86f-79c59c4f0f17" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:526:1" rel="noopener">Deutsche Bank (DBK GR)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bae-systems-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21825:1" rel="noopener">BAE Systems (BA/ LN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/barclays-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1121:1" rel="noopener">Barclays (BARC LN)</a> may replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/diageo-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:977:1" rel="noopener">Diageo Plc (DGE LN)</a> if its price falls further.</li>
</ul>


The main forecasted additions are Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentari (BBVA SM) and Rheinmetall AG (RHM GR) as they are both surpassing the entry rank.
The main forecasted deletions are Mercedes-Benz Group (MBG GR) and BASF (BAS GR) as they are both below the exit rank.
The highest-ranked among Deutsche Bank (DBK GR), BAE Systems (BA/ LN) and Barclays (BARC LN) may replace Diageo Plc (DGE LN) if its price falls further.


STOXX Europe50 September 2025 Forecast: BBVA & RHM Set to Join, BAS & MBG to Exit

<ul>
<li>Sabadell approves €3.1bn TSB sale and €0.50 dividend, enhancing standalone value and reducing downside in a deal-break scenario; BBVA’s unchanged offer now implies a –8.1% gross spread.</li>
<li>Spread has narrowed from –15.3% to –8.1%, as market reprices bump probability or resilient standalone outcome; dividend payout creates valuation floor, reshaping risk-reward for arbitrageurs.</li>
<li>Base case: BBVA must revise terms or risk rejection and deferred re-engagement; standalone plan is credible, capitalised, and shareholder-friendly, with payout and CET1 strength supporting defensive positioning.</li>
</ul>


Sabadell approves €3.1bn TSB sale and €0.50 dividend, enhancing standalone value and reducing downside in a deal-break scenario; BBVA’s unchanged offer now implies a –8.1% gross spread.
Spread has narrowed from –15.3% to –8.1%, as market reprices bump probability or resilient standalone outcome; dividend payout creates valuation floor, reshaping risk-reward for arbitrageurs.
Base case: BBVA must revise terms or risk rejection and deferred re-engagement; standalone plan is credible, capitalised, and shareholder-friendly, with payout and CET1 strength supporting defensive positioning.


BBVA/Sabadell: AGM Approvals Lock in Value, Raise Bar for Deal Success

<ul>
<li>Sabadell's TSB sale unlocks €3.4B in value and supports a €0.50/share special dividend, reducing appeal of BBVA’s current hostile bid.</li>
<li>BBVA maintains its offer despite regulatory constraints and limited synergy visibility for 3–5 years.</li>
<li>Options activity and share price suggest market expects either a bid bump or re-rating, with dividend yield softening downside.</li>
</ul>


Sabadell's TSB sale unlocks €3.4B in value and supports a €0.50/share special dividend, reducing appeal of BBVA’s current hostile bid.
BBVA maintains its offer despite regulatory constraints and limited synergy visibility for 3–5 years.
Options activity and share price suggest market expects either a bid bump or re-rating, with dividend yield softening downside.


BBVA/Sabadell Update: TSB Sale Shifts Dynamics, Adds Dividend Optionality

Spain

Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria, S.A. attracts deposits and offers retail, wholesale, and investment banking services.  The Bank offers consumer and mortgage loans, private banking, asset management, insurance, mutual funds, and securities brokerage services.  It operates in Europe, Latin America, United States, China and Turkey.

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Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentari (BBVA SM)

STOXX Europe600 Sep25 Forecast: ZEG, NDX1, FRA to Enter; VRLA, BPSO, EMBRACB to Exit

Uncertain inclusion: VENDB due to share class liquidity. High probability inclusions: ZEG and NDX1 following price rallies. High probability...

Dimitris Ioannidis

BBVA-Sabadell: Spread Too Thin, Sabadell Terms Weaken Again

BBVA’s bid for Sabadell remains unattractive post-adjustment. Legal risk, negative spread, and rising SAB value tilt risk-reward toward rejection....

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

STOXX Europe50 September 2025 Forecast: BBVA & RHM Set to Join, BAS & MBG to Exit

Main forecasted additions are BBVA and RHM, while MBG and BAS are the main forecasted deletions. DBK , BA., and BARC are potential replacement...

Dimitris Ioannidis

BBVA/Sabadell: AGM Approvals Lock in Value, Raise Bar for Deal Success

TSB sale and €0.50 dividend reshape Sabadell’s standalone value. With a –8.1% spread, BBVA’s offer looks stale. Market now pricing in a bump or...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

BBVA/Sabadell Update: TSB Sale Shifts Dynamics, Adds Dividend Optionality

TSB sale reshapes Sabadell’s story: BBVA’s bid looks stale, €0.50 dividend looms, and options imply upside. Long SAB / Short BBVA remains...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

STOXX Europe600 Sep25 Forecast: ZEG, NDX1, FRA to Enter; VRLA, BPSO, EMBRACB to Exit

Uncertain inclusion: VENDB due to share class liquidity. High probability inclusions: ZEG and NDX1 following price rallies. High probability...

Dimitris Ioannidis

BBVA-Sabadell: Spread Too Thin, Sabadell Terms Weaken Again

BBVA’s bid for Sabadell remains unattractive post-adjustment. Legal risk, negative spread, and rising SAB value tilt risk-reward toward rejection....

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

STOXX Europe50 September 2025 Forecast: BBVA & RHM Set to Join, BAS & MBG to Exit

​Main forecasted additions are BBVA and RHM, while MBG and BAS are the main forecasted deletions. DBK , BA., and BARC are potential replacement...

Dimitris Ioannidis

BBVA/Sabadell: AGM Approvals Lock in Value, Raise Bar for Deal Success

TSB sale and €0.50 dividend reshape Sabadell’s standalone value. With a –8.1% spread, BBVA’s offer looks stale. Market now pricing in a bump or...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

BBVA/Sabadell Update: TSB Sale Shifts Dynamics, Adds Dividend Optionality

TSB sale reshapes Sabadell’s story: BBVA’s bid looks stale, €0.50 dividend looms, and options imply upside. Long SAB / Short BBVA remains...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Main forecasted additions are BBVA and RHM, while MBG and BAS are the main forecasted deletions. DBK , BA., and BARC are potential replacement...