European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>CNMC approved BBVA’s bid with mild SME lending and branch access commitments. The offer now enters Phase 3, with government review and CNMV filing expected by late Q2 2025.</li>
<li>Sabadell shares trade 6.7% above the offer value, suggesting market expectation of an improved bid or deal failure. The gross spread is negative despite regulatory momentum.</li>
<li>BBVA’s CET1 would drop to 11.99% under current terms. It can raise the cash offer by €0.12–0.17/share and still stay above 11.5%, allowing room to improve the deal.</li>
</ul>


CNMC approved BBVA’s bid with mild SME lending and branch access commitments. The offer now enters Phase 3, with government review and CNMV filing expected by late Q2 2025.
Sabadell shares trade 6.7% above the offer value, suggesting market expectation of an improved bid or deal failure. The gross spread is negative despite regulatory momentum.
BBVA’s CET1 would drop to 11.99% under current terms. It can raise the cash offer by €0.12–0.17/share and still stay above 11.5%, allowing room to improve the deal.


BBVA’s Hostile Offer for Sabadell Moves into Final Phase: The Catalan Conundrum

US-EU Index Rebalances / Quantitative Researcher

Dimitris Ioannidis

Global Financial Data and Analytics Platform

ORTEX

ORTEX is a global financial data and analytics platform providing real-time securities lending and short interest data, index rebalance data, holdings and insider transactions, trading signals, corporate actions and news,  stock machine learning and factor scores and other analytics. The majority of the data are downloadable and accessible through APIs.

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/glencore-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:764:1" rel="noopener">Glencore Plc (GLEN LN)</a> currently ranks 77 in STOXX Europe50. If it ranks 75 or worse on 30 April, the security will be deleted via Fast-Exit on 7 May.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rolls-royce-holdings-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22121:1" rel="noopener">Rolls-Royce Holdings (RR/ LN)</a> is forecasted to be the replacement to the Fast-Exit deletion.</li>
<li>Main forecasted addition and deletion candidates at the September 2025 annual review include <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/banco-bilbao-vizcaya-argentari" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21251:1" rel="noopener">Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria (BBVA SM)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mercedes-benz-group-ag" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21602:1" rel="noopener">Mercedes-Benz Group (MBG GR)</a>, respectively. </li>
</ul>



Glencore Plc (GLEN LN) currently ranks 77 in STOXX Europe50. If it ranks 75 or worse on 30 April, the security will be deleted via Fast-Exit on 7 May.

Rolls-Royce Holdings (RR/ LN) is forecasted to be the replacement to the Fast-Exit deletion.
Main forecasted addition and deletion candidates at the September 2025 annual review include Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria (BBVA SM) and Mercedes-Benz Group (MBG GR), respectively. 


Glencore (GLEN): Fast-Exit from STOXX Europe50 In May 2025

<ul>
<li>The CNMC is expected to approve the deal with mild remedies, reducing regulatory uncertainty; however, a potential Phase 3 review by the government could delay timing and introduce political risk.</li>
<li>Sabadell’s standalone defense is robust, anchored in increased dividends, buybacks, and 14%+ RoTE guidance, which have helped reposition the bank as a viable independent alternative in the market.</li>
<li>The offer’s gross spread has turned negative, reflecting investor skepticism about deal success or expectations of an improved offer; the lack of a premium currently weakens BBVA’s negotiating leverage.</li>
</ul>


The CNMC is expected to approve the deal with mild remedies, reducing regulatory uncertainty; however, a potential Phase 3 review by the government could delay timing and introduce political risk.
Sabadell’s standalone defense is robust, anchored in increased dividends, buybacks, and 14%+ RoTE guidance, which have helped reposition the bank as a viable independent alternative in the market.
The offer’s gross spread has turned negative, reflecting investor skepticism about deal success or expectations of an improved offer; the lack of a premium currently weakens BBVA’s negotiating leverage.


BBVA Faces Resistance at the Vault with CNMC’s Verdict Looming

<ul>
<li>Revised Offer Terms: BBVA increased the cash payment to €0.13/Sabadell share (raising total cash outlay to €705 million), while adjusting the exchange ratio to 5.3456 Sabadell shares per BBVA share.</li>
<li>The deal requires CNMC, CNMV, and government approvals, with market skepticism evident as Sabadell's market price exceeds the offer value, signaling a low probability of success under current terms.</li>
<li>Financial Impact on BBVA: The increased cash component raises the estimated CET1 capital impact to 51bps, with potential further dilution if BBVA raises the cash payment to €0.20-€0.30 per share.</li>
</ul>


Revised Offer Terms: BBVA increased the cash payment to €0.13/Sabadell share (raising total cash outlay to €705 million), while adjusting the exchange ratio to 5.3456 Sabadell shares per BBVA share.
The deal requires CNMC, CNMV, and government approvals, with market skepticism evident as Sabadell's market price exceeds the offer value, signaling a low probability of success under current terms.
Financial Impact on BBVA: The increased cash component raises the estimated CET1 capital impact to 51bps, with potential further dilution if BBVA raises the cash payment to €0.20-€0.30 per share.


Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Shinko Electric Industries / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shinko-electric-industries" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15066:1" rel="noopener">Shinko Electric Industries (6967 JP)</a>. Done. Finally. Look at whether you could borrow shares just before the close of the tender and short tender and buy back post ex-date</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rea-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:699:1" rel="noopener">REA Group Ltd (REA AU)</a> rolls over as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/costar-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16907:1" rel="noopener">Costar Group (CSGP US)</a> bets big on key rival Domain <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/domain-holdings-australia-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26033:1" rel="noopener">Domain Holdings Australia (DHG AU)</a>.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/macromill-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24026:1" rel="noopener">Macromill (3978 JP)</a>'s tender extended. Still not a done deal. Look to buy shares at terms with the goal of NOT tendering and owning the back end.</li>
</ul>



Shinko Electric Industries (6967 JP). Done. Finally. Look at whether you could borrow shares just before the close of the tender and short tender and buy back post ex-date

REA Group Ltd (REA AU) rolls over as Costar Group (CSGP US) bets big on key rival Domain Domain Holdings Australia (DHG AU).

Macromill (3978 JP)'s tender extended. Still not a done deal. Look to buy shares at terms with the goal of NOT tendering and owning the back end.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Shinko Electric, REA Group, Macromill, CNBM, Prosus/Tencent

Spain

Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria, S.A. attracts deposits and offers retail, wholesale, and investment banking services.  The Bank offers consumer and mortgage loans, private banking, asset management, insurance, mutual funds, and securities brokerage services.  It operates in Europe, Latin America, United States, China and Turkey.

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Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentari (BBVA SM)

BBVA’s Hostile Offer for Sabadell Moves into Final Phase: The Catalan Conundrum

BBVA's offer for Sabadell enters its final regulatory phase. With Sabadell shares trading above the bid, the market anticipates a sweeter offer or...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Glencore (GLEN): Fast-Exit from STOXX Europe50 In May 2025

Glencore (GLEN) is ranked ~79 as of 29 April. With only one day to go, the stock price needs to surge ~8% to avoid fast-exit. As a result, the...

Dimitris Ioannidis

BBVA Faces Resistance at the Vault with CNMC’s Verdict Looming

BBVA’s hostile bid for Sabadell faces regulatory, political, and market hurdles. As the CNMC decision nears, I analyze deal economics, timing, and...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

BBVA/Sabadell: Updated Terms

BBVA revises offer terms for Sabadell acquisition, increasing cash payment to €0.13/share and adjusting exchange ratio, facing market skepticism...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Last Week in Event SPACE: Shinko Electric, REA Group, Macromill, CNBM, Prosus/Tencent

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Dividend (Yield)

BBVA’s Hostile Offer for Sabadell Moves into Final Phase: The Catalan Conundrum

BBVA's offer for Sabadell enters its final regulatory phase. With Sabadell shares trading above the bid, the market anticipates a sweeter offer or...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Glencore (GLEN): Fast-Exit from STOXX Europe50 In May 2025

Glencore (GLEN) is ranked ~79 as of 29 April. With only one day to go, the stock price needs to surge ~8% to avoid fast-exit. As a result, the...

Dimitris Ioannidis

BBVA Faces Resistance at the Vault with CNMC’s Verdict Looming

BBVA’s hostile bid for Sabadell faces regulatory, political, and market hurdles. As the CNMC decision nears, I analyze deal economics, timing, and...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

BBVA/Sabadell: Updated Terms

​BBVA revises offer terms for Sabadell acquisition, increasing cash payment to €0.13/share and adjusting exchange ratio, facing market skepticism...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Last Week in Event SPACE: Shinko Electric, REA Group, Macromill, CNBM, Prosus/Tencent

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

BBVA revises offer terms for Sabadell acquisition, increasing cash payment to €0.13/share and adjusting exchange ratio, facing market skepticism...