European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>BBVA secures 20%+ acceptance with one day left; gross spread at close is +2.9%. Market focus now on final institutional flows and threshold risk into 10 Oct deadline.</li>
<li>Most hedge funds expected to tender to avoid being caught in a non-event or downside skew if BBVA walks; second OPA would be all-cash but at the same price.</li>
<li>Long SAB / short BBVA remains tactically attractive, with asymmetry reduced but not gone. Borrow demand light but may rise as index tracking and hedge unwinds converge into result publication.</li>
</ul>


BBVA secures 20%+ acceptance with one day left; gross spread at close is +2.9%. Market focus now on final institutional flows and threshold risk into 10 Oct deadline.
Most hedge funds expected to tender to avoid being caught in a non-event or downside skew if BBVA walks; second OPA would be all-cash but at the same price.
Long SAB / short BBVA remains tactically attractive, with asymmetry reduced but not gone. Borrow demand light but may rise as index tracking and hedge unwinds converge into result publication.


BBVA-Sabadell: Final Stretch — Risk/Reward Tilting Sharply

<ul>
<li>BBVA’s revised all-share offer removes the discount but offers minimal premium, testing institutional appetite amid weak synergies and a fixed acceptance window ending 7 October.</li>
<li>The absence of cash and refusal to raise terms again leave limited upside optionality, making the risk/reward still favorable for a tactical long SAB / short BBVA trade.</li>
<li>Key focus now shifts to institutional sentiment, final acceptance levels, and governance risks, as tax neutrality alone may not be enough to ensure majority support.</li>
</ul>


BBVA’s revised all-share offer removes the discount but offers minimal premium, testing institutional appetite amid weak synergies and a fixed acceptance window ending 7 October.
The absence of cash and refusal to raise terms again leave limited upside optionality, making the risk/reward still favorable for a tactical long SAB / short BBVA trade.
Key focus now shifts to institutional sentiment, final acceptance levels, and governance risks, as tax neutrality alone may not be enough to ensure majority support.


BBVA-Sabadell: All-Stock, All-In — But Not a Done Deal

<ul>
<li>BBVA’s bid goes live on 8 Sept, but a –8.71% spread and poor optics keep tactical long SAB / short BBVA trades attractive.</li>
<li>Sabadell continues to boost standalone appeal via dividends, TSB sale, and strategic capital returns, reducing shareholder incentive to tender at current terms.</li>
<li>Legal overhang and merger restrictions extend into 2028, capping synergies and reinforcing the asymmetry in event-driven positioning ahead of potential bid adjustments.</li>
</ul>


BBVA’s bid goes live on 8 Sept, but a –8.71% spread and poor optics keep tactical long SAB / short BBVA trades attractive.
Sabadell continues to boost standalone appeal via dividends, TSB sale, and strategic capital returns, reducing shareholder incentive to tender at current terms.
Legal overhang and merger restrictions extend into 2028, capping synergies and reinforcing the asymmetry in event-driven positioning ahead of potential bid adjustments.


BBVA-Sabadell: Deal Launches Underwater, Arbitrage Still Asymmetric

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>Predicting binary events based on regulatory action or inaction is not ideal. Decide Monday or Tuesday to either sell <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shibaura-electronics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12704:1" rel="noopener">Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP)</a> in the market or tender.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/krungthai-card-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20097:1" rel="noopener">Krungthai Card (KTC TB)</a> is still a buy as latest pledged shares numbers fall to 2.3% of shares outstanding, down from 16.3% in May.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wilmar-international-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:172:1" rel="noopener">Wilmar International (WIL SP)</a> appears "cheap" to 90%-held <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yihai-kerry-arawana-holdings-c" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33230:1" rel="noopener">Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings C (300999 CH)</a>; however recent implied stub figures have rolled over</li>
</ul>


Predicting binary events based on regulatory action or inaction is not ideal. Decide Monday or Tuesday to either sell Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP) in the market or tender.

Krungthai Card (KTC TB) is still a buy as latest pledged shares numbers fall to 2.3% of shares outstanding, down from 16.3% in May.

Wilmar International (WIL SP) appears "cheap" to 90%-held Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings C (300999 CH); however recent implied stub figures have rolled over


Last Week In Event SPACE: Shibaura Electronics, Krungthai Card, Wilmar, First Pac, Fonterra

<ul>
<li>BBVA’s bid for Sabadell remains underwater, with a –6.8% spread despite a 29% BBVA's rally. The latest exchange ratio worsens optics; a cash bump may be needed to secure acceptance.</li>
<li>Legal and regulatory overhang persists, with BBVA appealing Spain's three-year integration block. The outcome may reshape synergy capture but remains slow-moving, leaving short-term deal value limited and execution uncertain.</li>
<li>Tactical opportunity remains in long SAB / short BBVA, with September’s acceptance window approaching. Unless terms improve, rejection risk is high; fundamentals and shareholder sentiment increasingly favour Sabadell’s standalone path.</li>
</ul>


BBVA’s bid for Sabadell remains underwater, with a –6.8% spread despite a 29% BBVA's rally. The latest exchange ratio worsens optics; a cash bump may be needed to secure acceptance.
Legal and regulatory overhang persists, with BBVA appealing Spain's three-year integration block. The outcome may reshape synergy capture but remains slow-moving, leaving short-term deal value limited and execution uncertain.
Tactical opportunity remains in long SAB / short BBVA, with September’s acceptance window approaching. Unless terms improve, rejection risk is high; fundamentals and shareholder sentiment increasingly favour Sabadell’s standalone path.


BBVA-Sabadell: Spread Too Thin, Sabadell Terms Weaken Again

Spain

Banco de Sabadell SA attracts deposits and offers commercial banking services. The Bank offers mortgage, consumer, student, and building improvement loans, private banking services, and insurance, and sponsors Visa credit cards.  The Bank operates branches throughout Spain, elsewhere in Europe, the Caribbean, the Americas, and Asia.

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Banco De Sabadell SA (SAB SM)

BBVA-Sabadell: Final Stretch — Risk/Reward Tilting Sharply

BBVA’s all-stock offer for Sabadell nears expiry with rising momentum but weak structure. Final acceptances hold the key. Tactical long SAB / short...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

BBVA-Sabadell: All-Stock, All-In — But Not a Done Deal

BBVA’s improved all-stock offer ends the discount but leaves minimal premium. With no bump coming, sentiment and threshold risk dominate. Tactical...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

BBVA-Sabadell: Deal Launches Underwater, Arbitrage Still Asymmetric

BBVA’s bid is live but unattractive. With Sabadell gaining strength and the spread still wide, tactical long SAB / short BBVA positioning offers...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Last Week In Event SPACE: Shibaura Electronics, Krungthai Card, Wilmar, First Pac, Fonterra

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

BBVA-Sabadell: Spread Too Thin, Sabadell Terms Weaken Again

BBVA’s bid for Sabadell remains unattractive post-adjustment. Legal risk, negative spread, and rising SAB value tilt risk-reward toward rejection....

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

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