Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.</li>
<li>
Highlights: Currently eleven pair trade opportunities across three markets and six sectors persist.</li>
<li>
Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.</li>
</ul>



Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.

Highlights: Currently eleven pair trade opportunities across three markets and six sectors persist.

Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.


Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (22 Dec)

Bayon Financial

Graeme Cunningham

Independent Insight Provider

Bayon Financial provides industry and company analysis focusing on mid and small cap equity research coverage across a range of sectors including mining, financials and telecoms.

<ul>
<li>BHP has abandoned a last minute bid for Anglo American, which will likely see the latter's planned merger with Teck with proceed </li>
<li>We consider other potential targets for BHP, all copper, concluding that most seem unlikely for now, especially with the company stating a focus on organic growth</li>
<li>BHP faces the risks of a decline in iron ore (consensus) and copper (non-consensus) prices in our view, while it trades at premium to the sector and above our DCF </li>
</ul>


BHP has abandoned a last minute bid for Anglo American, which will likely see the latter's planned merger with Teck with proceed 
We consider other potential targets for BHP, all copper, concluding that most seem unlikely for now, especially with the company stating a focus on organic growth
BHP faces the risks of a decline in iron ore (consensus) and copper (non-consensus) prices in our view, while it trades at premium to the sector and above our DCF 


BHP: Few Viable Targets After Anglo Bid Abandoned

<ul>
<li>
Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.</li>
<li>
Highlights: Currently twelve pair trade opportunities across three markets and five sectors persist.</li>
<li>
Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.</li>
</ul>



Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.

Highlights: Currently twelve pair trade opportunities across three markets and five sectors persist.

Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.


Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (24 Nov)

<ul>
<li>
Context: The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bhp-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:147:1" rel="noopener">BHP Group (BHP AU)</a> vs. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rio-tinto-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13:1" rel="noopener">Rio Tinto (RIO AU)</a> price ratio has deviated more than two standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.</li>
<li>
Highlights: Going long BHP Group (BHP AU) and short Rio Tinto (RIO AU) targets a 4% return.</li>
<li>
Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.</li>
</ul>



Context: The BHP Group (BHP AU) vs. Rio Tinto (RIO AU) price ratio has deviated more than two standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.

Highlights: Going long BHP Group (BHP AU) and short Rio Tinto (RIO AU) targets a 4% return.

Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.


BHP (BHP AU) Vs. Rio Tinto (RIO AU): Stat Arb Pair Trade Opportunity in High Profile Aussie Miners

<ul>
<li>Press reports indicated that China could temporarily suspend purchases of BHP’s iron ore from Jimblebar, which could account for a mid-single digit percentage of revenue</li>
<li>The UK press reported Geraldine Slattery will likely be BHP’s new CEO, who currently heads BHP's Australian operations and has over three decades with the company</li>
<li>BHP is 4% above our DCF, its 2.8x P/B is not clearly excessive or attractive, and we see risks to iron ore, copper and coal prices from a broad slowdown</li>
</ul>


Press reports indicated that China could temporarily suspend purchases of BHP’s iron ore from Jimblebar, which could account for a mid-single digit percentage of revenue
The UK press reported Geraldine Slattery will likely be BHP’s new CEO, who currently heads BHP's Australian operations and has over three decades with the company
BHP is 4% above our DCF, its 2.8x P/B is not clearly excessive or attractive, and we see risks to iron ore, copper and coal prices from a broad slowdown


BHP: Press Reports of China Iron Ore Suspension, New CEO

Australia

BHP Group Limited operates as a mining company.  The Companyengages in the exploration, development, production and processing of iron ore, metallurgical coal, and copper. BHP Group serves customers worldwide.

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BHP Group Ltd (BHP LN)

Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (22 Dec)

Statistical methodology identifies eleven pair trade opportunities across three markets and six sectors, offering unique insights into relative...

Gaudenz Schneider

BHP: Few Viable Targets After Anglo Bid Abandoned

With the Anglo American bid abandoned, we find few other viable targets for BHP, while risks to iron ore and copper prices remain and the valuation...

Graeme Cunningham

Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (24 Nov)

Statistical methodology identifies twelve pair trade opportunities across three markets and five sectors, offering unique insights into relative...

Gaudenz Schneider

BHP (BHP AU) Vs. Rio Tinto (RIO AU): Stat Arb Pair Trade Opportunity in High Profile Aussie Miners

The BHP Group vs. Rio Tinto price ratio presents a potential relative value opportunity for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion strategies.

Gaudenz Schneider

BHP: Press Reports of China Iron Ore Suspension, New CEO

Press reports indicate that China could temporarily suspend purchases of BHP's Jimblebar iron ore and a new CEO has likely been chosen, while we...

Graeme Cunningham

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (22 Dec)

​Statistical methodology identifies eleven pair trade opportunities across three markets and six sectors, offering unique insights into relative...

Gaudenz Schneider

BHP: Few Viable Targets After Anglo Bid Abandoned

With the Anglo American bid abandoned, we find few other viable targets for BHP, while risks to iron ore and copper prices remain and the valuation...

Graeme Cunningham

Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (24 Nov)

​Statistical methodology identifies twelve pair trade opportunities across three markets and five sectors, offering unique insights into relative...

Gaudenz Schneider

BHP (BHP AU) Vs. Rio Tinto (RIO AU): Stat Arb Pair Trade Opportunity in High Profile Aussie Miners

​The BHP Group vs. Rio Tinto price ratio presents a potential relative value opportunity for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion strategies.

Gaudenz Schneider

BHP: Press Reports of China Iron Ore Suspension, New CEO

Press reports indicate that China could temporarily suspend purchases of BHP's Jimblebar iron ore and a new CEO has likely been chosen, while we...

Graeme Cunningham

Statistical methodology identifies eleven pair trade opportunities across three markets and six sectors, offering unique insights into relative...

Statistical methodology identifies twelve pair trade opportunities across three markets and five sectors, offering unique insights into relative...

The BHP Group vs. Rio Tinto price ratio presents a potential relative value opportunity for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion strategies.