Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Equity Bottom-Up

Tencent Music Entertainment / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Hong Kong market sectors outperforming since the stimulus in September are Consumer Discretionary and Healthcare as Utilities, Telecom and Energy lag.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/crrc-corp-ltd-461535b2-37ac-4589-b4d9-8b71c06c43b8" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:124:1" rel="noopener">CRRC Corp Ltd H (1766 HK)</a> gets BUY recommendations as its results point to continued strength in the rail equipment sector with passenger volume surging.
</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-music-entertainment-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36601:1" rel="noopener">Tencent Music Entertainment Group (1698 HK)</a> reported solid results as it shifts to a pay-to-stream subscription model. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xiaomi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24409:1" rel="noopener">Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK)</a> had a blowout quarter with EV sales surging.
</li>
</ul>


Hong Kong market sectors outperforming since the stimulus in September are Consumer Discretionary and Healthcare as Utilities, Telecom and Energy lag.

CRRC Corp Ltd H (1766 HK) gets BUY recommendations as its results point to continued strength in the rail equipment sector with passenger volume surging.


Tencent Music Entertainment Group (1698 HK) reported solid results as it shifts to a pay-to-stream subscription model. Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK) had a blowout quarter with EV sales surging.



BUY/SELL/HOLD: Hong Kong Stock Updates (NOVEMBER 18)

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Ying Pan

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

<ul>
<li>Bilibili (BILI) reported C3Q24 revenue and GAAP net income 2.1%, 18% vs. our estimates and 2.5%, 24% vs. consensus. </li>
<li>We believe the market oversold on BILI because its traffic was rebounding in accelerating fashion, which shall benefit from a consumption recovery now visible into C1Q25. </li>
<li>We maintained our BUY rating and raised our TP to US$22. BILI is our mid-cap TOP PICK.</li>
</ul>


Bilibili (BILI) reported C3Q24 revenue and GAAP net income 2.1%, 18% vs. our estimates and 2.5%, 24% vs. consensus. 
We believe the market oversold on BILI because its traffic was rebounding in accelerating fashion, which shall benefit from a consumption recovery now visible into C1Q25. 
We maintained our BUY rating and raised our TP to US$22. BILI is our mid-cap TOP PICK.


[Bilibili (BILI US, BUY, TP US$22) TP Change]: C3Q24 Review: Traffic Growth Bodes Well for Future

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

<ul><li>BiliBili reported 3Q24 results: total revenue was up by 26% YoY to RMB7.31bn, 3/2% ahead of our/Bloomberg consensus estimate; the company achieved quarterly breakeven and recorded an adjusted net income of RMB236mn (vs. adjusted net loss of RMB878mn in 3Q23), ahead of our/consensus estimate of RMB195/217mn.</li><li>The solid 3Q24 print is mainly due to the strong performance of new game title SanMou and the effective cost optimization initiatives. Looking ahead to 4Q24E, we forecast total revenue to grow by 21% YoY, with adjusted net margin further expanding to 5.3% (3Q24: 3.2%).</li><li>We lift FY24-26E total revenue forecast by 1-5% in view of the robust game performance. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

BiliBili reported 3Q24 results: total revenue was up by 26% YoY to RMB7.31bn, 3/2% ahead of our/Bloomberg consensus estimate; the company achieved quarterly breakeven and recorded an adjusted net income of RMB236mn (vs. adjusted net loss of RMB878mn in 3Q23), ahead of our/consensus estimate of RMB195/217mn.The solid 3Q24 print is mainly due to the strong performance of new game title SanMou and the effective cost optimization initiatives. Looking ahead to 4Q24E, we forecast total revenue to grow by 21% YoY, with adjusted net margin further expanding to 5.3% (3Q24: 3.2%).We lift FY24-26E total revenue forecast by 1-5% in view of the robust game performance. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Bilibili (BILI US) - Strong Mobile Games and Ad Businesses Support Solid 3Q24 Results

<ul>
<li>Hong Kong is showing strong market momentum as consumer staples, consumer discretionary, healthcare and tech surge on increased momentum.</li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xtep-international-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18118:1" rel="noopener">Xtep International (1368 HK)</a> had a good 1H24 and benefited from better consumer sentiment. Analysts are upgrading <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tongcheng-travel-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27363:1" rel="noopener">Tongcheng Travel Holdings (780 HK) on an improved outlook.</a></li>
<li>Goldman Sachs upgraded their rating on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bilibili-inc-83a27302-cd7d-4e6a-a1de-bcf93eb022c3" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32215:1" rel="noopener">Bilibili (9626 HK)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bilibili-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26793:1" rel="noopener">Bilibili (BILI US)</a> to a BUY with improving user MAU/DAU measures and the success of its newly launched game.</li>
</ul>


Hong Kong is showing strong market momentum as consumer staples, consumer discretionary, healthcare and tech surge on increased momentum.
Xtep International (1368 HK) had a good 1H24 and benefited from better consumer sentiment. Analysts are upgrading Tongcheng Travel Holdings (780 HK) on an improved outlook.
Goldman Sachs upgraded their rating on Bilibili (9626 HK) , Bilibili (BILI US) to a BUY with improving user MAU/DAU measures and the success of its newly launched game.


BUY/SELL/HOLD: Hong Kong Stock Updates (September 28)

<ul>
<li>The conglomerate sector continues to show momentum in Hong Kong while the materials and energy sectors lag</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/weibo-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35280:1" rel="noopener">Weibo (9898 HK)</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/weibo-corp-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3826:1" rel="noopener">Weibo Corp (WB US)</a> was rated a BUY as valuations and potential catalysts from parent <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd-d7b798e2-202d-4e01-9a1e-799e2ae8f0c7" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK)</a> could support a higher stock price.
</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-east-education-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27843:1" rel="noopener">China East Education (667 HK)</a> was upgraded to BUY with higher higher price target due to profit increase. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dongfang-electric-corporation-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1251:1" rel="noopener">Dongfang Electric (1072 HK)</a> was initiated with a BUY with strong upside.
</li>
</ul>


The conglomerate sector continues to show momentum in Hong Kong while the materials and energy sectors lag

Weibo (9898 HK)Weibo Corp (WB US) was rated a BUY as valuations and potential catalysts from parent Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK) could support a higher stock price.


China East Education (667 HK) was upgraded to BUY with higher higher price target due to profit increase. Dongfang Electric (1072 HK) was initiated with a BUY with strong upside.



BUY/SELL/HOLD: Hong Kong Stock Updates (September 21)

China

Bilibili Inc. provides online entertainment services. The Company offers a platform that covers a wide array of genres and media formats, including videos, live broadcasting, mobile games, animation, and comics. Bilibili serves customers in China.

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Bilibili (BILI US)

BUY/SELL/HOLD: Hong Kong Stock Updates (NOVEMBER 18)

Hong Kong has seen its Consumer Discretionary and Healthcare sectors perform well since the stimulus in September. CRCC has had several buy...

David Mudd

[Bilibili (BILI US, BUY, TP US$22) TP Change]: C3Q24 Review: Traffic Growth Bodes Well for Future

Bilibili (BILI) exceeds revenue and net income estimates, market oversold, BUY rating maintained with raised target price to US$22.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Bilibili (BILI US) - Strong Mobile Games and Ad Businesses Support Solid 3Q24 Results

We roll over our valuation period to FY25E and fine-tune our SOTP-derived target price to US$22.0 (previous: US$20.50). Maintain BUY

CMB International

BUY/SELL/HOLD: Hong Kong Stock Updates (September 28)

Hong Kong market continues to re-rate on the back of PBOC stimulus. XTEP and Tongcheng benefit from improved consumer sentiment and earnings...

David Mudd

BUY/SELL/HOLD: Hong Kong Stock Updates (September 21)

Conglomerate stocks in Hong Kong have outperformed this month. Weibo target price is upgraded and Dongfang Electric is intiated BUY. CEE saw a...

David Mudd

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

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BUY/SELL/HOLD: Hong Kong Stock Updates (NOVEMBER 18)

Hong Kong has seen its Consumer Discretionary and Healthcare sectors perform well since the stimulus in September. CRCC has had several buy...

David Mudd

[Bilibili (BILI US, BUY, TP US$22) TP Change]: C3Q24 Review: Traffic Growth Bodes Well for Future

​Bilibili (BILI) exceeds revenue and net income estimates, market oversold, BUY rating maintained with raised target price to US$22.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Bilibili (BILI US) - Strong Mobile Games and Ad Businesses Support Solid 3Q24 Results

We roll over our valuation period to FY25E and fine-tune our SOTP-derived target price to US$22.0 (previous: US$20.50). Maintain BUY

CMB International

BUY/SELL/HOLD: Hong Kong Stock Updates (September 28)

Hong Kong market continues to re-rate on the back of PBOC stimulus. XTEP and Tongcheng benefit from improved consumer sentiment and earnings...

David Mudd

BUY/SELL/HOLD: Hong Kong Stock Updates (September 21)

Conglomerate stocks in Hong Kong have outperformed this month. Weibo target price is upgraded and Dongfang Electric is intiated BUY. CEE saw a...

David Mudd

Bilibili (BILI) exceeds revenue and net income estimates, market oversold, BUY rating maintained with raised target price to US$22.