China/Asia TMT

Shawn Yang

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>BILI reported 2Q23 top-line in-line and non-GAAP net profit 7% better than consensus.  However, gaming revenue was weak, causing BILI to revise down its full-year revenue guidance.</li>
<li>We believe e-commerce ads could become a new near-term driving force, but the rapid growth of game-related ads might fade post-Q3. </li>
<li>Also, the significant consolidation of ACG games could affect BILI’s future game performance. We maintain our US$ 12.3 TP and SELL rating.</li>
</ul>


BILI reported 2Q23 top-line in-line and non-GAAP net profit 7% better than consensus.  However, gaming revenue was weak, causing BILI to revise down its full-year revenue guidance.
We believe e-commerce ads could become a new near-term driving force, but the rapid growth of game-related ads might fade post-Q3. 
Also, the significant consolidation of ACG games could affect BILI’s future game performance. We maintain our US$ 12.3 TP and SELL rating.


[Bilibili(BILI US, SELL, TP US$12.3) Review]: E-Commerce Ads Aren’t Sufficient to Hide Other Issues

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

<ul><li>BiliBili announced 2Q23 financial results on 17 Aug: total revenue increased by 8% YoY to RMB5.3bn, in line with CMBI/consensus estimate.</li><li>Adjusted net loss narrowed by 51% YoY to RMB964mn, in line with CMBI/consensus estimate of RMB1.02/1.04bn.</li><li>Bili lowers its full-year total revenue guidance from RMB24.0- 26.0bn (+10% to 19% YoY) to RMB22.5-23.5bn (+3% to 7% YoY), mainly reflecting the delay of key game launches and softer-than-expected performance of IP derivatives business. </li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

BiliBili announced 2Q23 financial results on 17 Aug: total revenue increased by 8% YoY to RMB5.3bn, in line with CMBI/consensus estimate.Adjusted net loss narrowed by 51% YoY to RMB964mn, in line with CMBI/consensus estimate of RMB1.02/1.04bn.Bili lowers its full-year total revenue guidance from RMB24.0- 26.0bn (+10% to 19% YoY) to RMB22.5-23.5bn (+3% to 7% YoY), mainly reflecting the delay of key game launches and softer-than-expected performance of IP derivatives business. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Bilibili (BILI US) – Monetization Improvement While Driving for Ecosystem Growth

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Meituan/Ctrip.com/Atour: MCT announce the third batch of destination list for outbound group travel, bodes well for outbound travel recovery</li>
<li>ZTO: Cainiao Guoguo launches RMB 1.3bn in logistics subsidies for new Taobao/Tmall SMEs (-)</li>
<li>Tencent held the 2023 WeChat Advertising Ecology Partnership Conference (+)</li>
</ul>


Meituan/Ctrip.com/Atour: MCT announce the third batch of destination list for outbound group travel, bodes well for outbound travel recovery
ZTO: Cainiao Guoguo launches RMB 1.3bn in logistics subsidies for new Taobao/Tmall SMEs (-)
Tencent held the 2023 WeChat Advertising Ecology Partnership Conference (+)


China TMT Update-Meituan/Ctrip/Atour/Baba/ZTO/Tencent/-Cainiao/WeChat Ads Conference/Outbound Travel

<ul>
<li>We updated our revenue forecasts for ByteDance (China domestic) , with the industry models. We estimate that ByteDance's domestic ad revenue/eCommerce GMV/local lifestyle GTV will grow by 17%/50%/134% this year.</li>
<li>In the advertising space, we recommend Tencent and iQIYI. Both Tencent and iQIYI experienced a decline in their advertising revenue market share in 2022, followed by a rebound in 2023.</li>
<li>In transactional GMV/GTV, we prefer Meituan and Pinduoduo. Meituan's market share experienced a significant decline in 2022, but the decline rate is expected to narrow significantly this year.</li>
</ul>


We updated our revenue forecasts for ByteDance (China domestic) , with the industry models. We estimate that ByteDance's domestic ad revenue/eCommerce GMV/local lifestyle GTV will grow by 17%/50%/134% this year.
In the advertising space, we recommend Tencent and iQIYI. Both Tencent and iQIYI experienced a decline in their advertising revenue market share in 2022, followed by a rebound in 2023.
In transactional GMV/GTV, we prefer Meituan and Pinduoduo. Meituan's market share experienced a significant decline in 2022, but the decline rate is expected to narrow significantly this year.


[Blue Lotus Multi-Platform Sector Update]: ByteDance Forecasts and Implications for China Internet

<ul>
<li>We were invited to BILI’s 2023 investor day, during which BILI management presented several catalysts. </li>
<li>However, most of these catalysts appear to be minor. BILI management is fully aware of the challenges in the industry.</li>
<li>We maintain a SELL rating, and investors may consider shorting BILI after &lt;Uma Musume&gt; is launched.</li>
</ul>


We were invited to BILI’s 2023 investor day, during which BILI management presented several catalysts. 
However, most of these catalysts appear to be minor. BILI management is fully aware of the challenges in the industry.
We maintain a SELL rating, and investors may consider shorting BILI after &lt;Uma Musume&gt; is launched.


[Bilibili(BILI US, SELL, TP US$12.3)Update]: Still Struggling to Balance Growth and Monetization

China

Bilibili Inc. provides online entertainment services. The Company offers a platform that covers a wide array of genres and media formats, including videos, live broadcasting, mobile games, animation, and comics. Bilibili serves customers in China.

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Bilibili (BILI US)

[Bilibili(BILI US, SELL, TP US$12.3) Review]: E-Commerce Ads Aren’t Sufficient to Hide Other Issues

We believe e-commerce ads could become a new driving force, but the rapid growth of game-related ads might fade post-Q3. Also, the consolidation of...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Bilibili (BILI US) – Monetization Improvement While Driving for Ecosystem Growth

BiliBili announced 2Q23 financial results on 17 Aug: total revenue increased by 8% YoY to RMB5.3bn, in line with CMBI/consensus estimate.

CMB International

China TMT Update-Meituan/Ctrip/Atour/Baba/ZTO/Tencent/-Cainiao/WeChat Ads Conference/Outbound Travel

MCT announce the third batch of destination list for outbound group travel;Cainiao Guoguo launches RMB 1.3bn in logistics subsidies;Tencent 2023...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Blue Lotus Multi-Platform Sector Update]: ByteDance Forecasts and Implications for China Internet

We estimate that ByteDance's domestic ad revenue/eCommerce GMV/local lifestyle GTV will grow by 17%/50%/134% this year. We prefer Tencent, iQiyi,...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Bilibili(BILI US, SELL, TP US$12.3)Update]: Still Struggling to Balance Growth and Monetization

We were invited to BILI’s 2023 investor day, during which BILI management presented several catalysts. Most of these catalysts appear to be minor....

Blue Lotus Research Institute

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