Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist, Objective Analysis

Jim Handy

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist

Objective Analysis

Objective Analysis offers third-party independent market research and data for the semiconductor industry and investors in the semiconductor industry.

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

The September semiconductor revenues are in, bringing the third quarter to a close.  Both the month and the quarter reached all-time highs.  Although today's boom shows no sign of ending, there is ample precedent to tell us what will occur once supply catches up with demand.  This Insight explores the current market and the likely outcome.

The September semiconductor revenues are in, bringing the third quarter to a close.  Both the month and the quarter reached all-time highs.  Although today's boom shows no sign of ending, there is ample precedent to tell us what will occur once supply catches up with demand.  This Insight explores the current market and the likely outcome.

Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (2330 TT)

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>2026 revenue growth now expected above 40% in US$ (from above 30% previously). 1-3Q26 revenue growth YoY is 40% in NT$, 38% in US$ (guidance included).</li>
<li>2026 Capex raised to US$62bn, from US$54bn in January. Additional US$100bn in Arizona. The rumor mill was talking about $70bn capex in 2027 – that now looks low.</li>
<li>Margins are moving up: increasing utilization, increasing EUV and HPC in the mix, price hikes. YTD, NT$ net income up 63% YoY. Stock trading at 23.3x ‘26EPS and 17.2x ’27.</li>
</ul>


2026 revenue growth now expected above 40% in US$ (from above 30% previously). 1-3Q26 revenue growth YoY is 40% in NT$, 38% in US$ (guidance included).
2026 Capex raised to US$62bn, from US$54bn in January. Additional US$100bn in Arizona. The rumor mill was talking about $70bn capex in 2027 – that now looks low.
Margins are moving up: increasing utilization, increasing EUV and HPC in the mix, price hikes. YTD, NT$ net income up 63% YoY. Stock trading at 23.3x ‘26EPS and 17.2x ’27.


TSMC: Raising 2026 Guidance, Raising Capex, “all the Way to Probably 2029-30, Demand Is Very Strong”

August semiconductor revenues set new records worldwide and in nearly every region.  This is a continuation of a growth trend that has been playing out since the end of 2019, with each month setting new records since December of last year.

August semiconductor revenues set new records worldwide and in nearly every region.  This is a continuation of a growth trend that has been playing out since the end of 2019, with each month setting new records since December of last year.

August Semiconductor Revenues Break Records Once Again

<ul>
<li>In 4Q25, ASML guidance for 2026 revenues was €36.5bn. In 1Q26, revised up to 38bn. In 2Q26 revised up to 44bn. ASML gross margins estimates up from 52% to 56%.</li>
<li>EUV capacity increase by 30% in 2027, possibly another 30% in 2028. DUV capacity up 30%. This suggest 20-25% revenue growth, 2028 revenue at ~€65bn above 2030 target (€44-60bn).</li>
<li>This tells us that AI capacity increase is accelerating, both Logic and DRAM. This means that the discussions from end-clients to toolmakers cover several years of increasing demand. </li>
</ul>


In 4Q25, ASML guidance for 2026 revenues was €36.5bn. In 1Q26, revised up to 38bn. In 2Q26 revised up to 44bn. ASML gross margins estimates up from 52% to 56%.
EUV capacity increase by 30% in 2027, possibly another 30% in 2028. DUV capacity up 30%. This suggest 20-25% revenue growth, 2028 revenue at ~€65bn above 2030 target (€44-60bn).
This tells us that AI capacity increase is accelerating, both Logic and DRAM. This means that the discussions from end-clients to toolmakers cover several years of increasing demand. 


ASML: The Clearest Signal of Increasing AI Semiconductor Demand

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Cross Asset Strategy

Over 50% of allocations are in the US with the bulk of the remainder split between Japan, China &amp; HK and the major European nations.  The EMEA overweight is comprised mainly of the UK, Netherlands, France and Germany, with active managers running underweights in the US, China &amp; HK, Australia and Japan.UK allocations hover around their lowest levels in history, though managers remain stubbornly overweight compared to the MSCI AC World index.  A total of 62% of managers are overweight the UK at an average +1.88% above benchmark.  Global Value investors are approaching their largest ever overweight in UK stocks of 3.64% above benchmark.Another month, another slump in Japan exposure.  Average weights in Japan stand at an all-time low of 5.06% with 85.5% of funds exposed (another low). <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sony-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:563:1" rel="noopener">Sony Corp (6758 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kddi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:639:1" rel="noopener">KDDI Corp (9433 JP)</a> are the most widely held stocks, with 23% and 21% of funds holding a position.Tech exposure is at record highs, though this is matched by a record underweight of -0.47%.  Indeed, the percentage of funds who are overweight technology has fallen to below 50% for the first time since the end of 2018, a sign that Global managers are tilting their portfolios away from Tech.German Industrials allocations have hit a 4-year high as more Global investors add exposure to the sector. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/deutsche-post-ag" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21608:1" rel="noopener">Deutsche Post AG (DPW GR)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/siemens-ag" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21713:1" rel="noopener">Siemens AG (SIE GR)</a> were the key stocks behind the move, with 4.2% and 2.4% of funds adding exposure over the last 6-months.Alibaba has seen closures by some of the larger holders in our analysis, led by American Funds Capital World Fund (-$1.1bn) and New Economy Fund (-$451m).  Though closures have dominated, selected funds have opened exposure during this period of volatility, including Invesco's Global Focus Fund and Liontrust's Global Income Fund.

Over 50% of allocations are in the US with the bulk of the remainder split between Japan, China &amp; HK and the major European nations.  The EMEA overweight is comprised mainly of the UK, Netherlands, France and Germany, with active managers running underweights in the US, China &amp; HK, Australia and Japan.UK allocations hover around their lowest levels in history, though managers remain stubbornly overweight compared to the MSCI AC World index.  A total of 62% of managers are overweight the UK at an average +1.88% above benchmark.  Global Value investors are approaching their largest ever overweight in UK stocks of 3.64% above benchmark.Another month, another slump in Japan exposure.  Average weights in Japan stand at an all-time low of 5.06% with 85.5% of funds exposed (another low). Sony Corp (6758 JP) and KDDI Corp (9433 JP) are the most widely held stocks, with 23% and 21% of funds holding a position.Tech exposure is at record highs, though this is matched by a record underweight of -0.47%.  Indeed, the percentage of funds who are overweight technology has fallen to below 50% for the first time since the end of 2018, a sign that Global managers are tilting their portfolios away from Tech.German Industrials allocations have hit a 4-year high as more Global investors add exposure to the sector. Deutsche Post AG (DPW GR) and Siemens AG (SIE GR) were the key stocks behind the move, with 4.2% and 2.4% of funds adding exposure over the last 6-months.Alibaba has seen closures by some of the larger holders in our analysis, led by American Funds Capital World Fund (-$1.1bn) and New Economy Fund (-$451m).  Though closures have dominated, selected funds have opened exposure during this period of volatility, including Invesco's Global Focus Fund and Liontrust's Global Income Fund.

Global Fund Positioning Update:  Japan Lows, US Highs, UK Value Rotation, Tencent & Alibaba Exit

United States

Broadcom Inc. designs, develops, and supplies semiconductor and infrastructure software solutions. The Company offers storage adapters, controllers, networking processors, motion control encoders, and optical sensors, as well as infrastructure and security software to modernize, optimize, and secure the most complex hybrid environments. Broadcom serves customers worldwide.

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Broadcom (AVGO US)

Semiconductors Continue Full Speed Ahead

Again chip sales have reached record highs. How long will this last? What will happen when it ends? This Insight dips into that to provide some...

Jim Handy

TSMC: Raising 2026 Guidance, Raising Capex, “all the Way to Probably 2029-30, Demand Is Very Strong”

TSMC's 2026 revenue growth expected to exceed 40%, with increased Capex and improving margins driving stock performance.

Nicolas Baratte

August Semiconductor Revenues Break Records Once Again

Once again the semiconductor market has set a new revenue record. Just-reported August revenues make it the highest month in history. There's no...

Jim Handy

ASML: The Clearest Signal of Increasing AI Semiconductor Demand

ASML revenue guidance for 2026 has been consistently revised upwards, with estimates now reaching €44bn. Increased EUV and DUV capacity suggests...

Nicolas Baratte

Global Fund Positioning Update: Japan Lows, US Highs, UK Value Rotation, Tencent & Alibaba Exit

A detailed look at investor positioning among 380 active Global strategies, covering the major themes in country, sector and stock exposure.

Steven Holden

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

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Semiconductors Continue Full Speed Ahead

Again chip sales have reached record highs. How long will this last? What will happen when it ends? This Insight dips into that to provide some...

Jim Handy

TSMC: Raising 2026 Guidance, Raising Capex, “all the Way to Probably 2029-30, Demand Is Very Strong”

​TSMC's 2026 revenue growth expected to exceed 40%, with increased Capex and improving margins driving stock performance.

Nicolas Baratte

August Semiconductor Revenues Break Records Once Again

Once again the semiconductor market has set a new revenue record. Just-reported August revenues make it the highest month in history. There's no...

Jim Handy

ASML: The Clearest Signal of Increasing AI Semiconductor Demand

​ASML revenue guidance for 2026 has been consistently revised upwards, with estimates now reaching €44bn. Increased EUV and DUV capacity suggests...

Nicolas Baratte

Global Fund Positioning Update: Japan Lows, US Highs, UK Value Rotation, Tencent & Alibaba Exit

A detailed look at investor positioning among 380 active Global strategies, covering the major themes in country, sector and stock exposure.

Steven Holden

TSMC's 2026 revenue growth expected to exceed 40%, with increased Capex and improving margins driving stock performance.

ASML revenue guidance for 2026 has been consistently revised upwards, with estimates now reaching €44bn. Increased EUV and DUV capacity suggests...