Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst, Real Estate Foresight

Robert Ciemniak

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst

Real Estate Foresight

Since 2012, REF has been helping investors with market research, project due diligence, and strategy development. This has ranged from detailed assessments and estimates on distressed developers' project portfolios to market due diligence on specific projects to macro-level questions linked to demand for commodities. The unique combination of the housing markets and developer data from data partner China Index Academy in Beijing, primary research, and technology-powered alternative data collection from public sources result in a valuable content set used in REF analytics and reports.

Predictive Analytics for China Property

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>The sales of new homes over the 1999-2022 period appear to be not out of sync with the increase in the number of urban households </li>
<li>The fact that 'modern housing' in China only started at the end of 1990s, gives the sector unique long-term characteristics, harder to gauge using typical models</li>
<li>Hence the practical demand-supply balance may be better than typically thought, keeping in mind the affordability and wealth distribution issues, variation by region and city</li>
</ul>


The sales of new homes over the 1999-2022 period appear to be not out of sync with the increase in the number of urban households 
The fact that 'modern housing' in China only started at the end of 1990s, gives the sector unique long-term characteristics, harder to gauge using typical models
Hence the practical demand-supply balance may be better than typically thought, keeping in mind the affordability and wealth distribution issues, variation by region and city


China Housing - Demand-Supply Fundamentals Part #1: The "Modern Housing" Argument

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>China housing metrics for July and August remained weak, in line with our forecast from December data, but watch out for some major data twists</li>
<li>The new wave of policy easing responds to the re-weakening of the market since April, though the impact may not show quickly, as the Zhengzhou example illustrates</li>
<li>Cities are quick to implement the new rules, including Shenzhen, Chengdu, and Guangzhou in the past few days </li>
</ul>


China housing metrics for July and August remained weak, in line with our forecast from December data, but watch out for some major data twists
The new wave of policy easing responds to the re-weakening of the market since April, though the impact may not show quickly, as the Zhengzhou example illustrates
Cities are quick to implement the new rules, including Shenzhen, Chengdu, and Guangzhou in the past few days 


China Property - The Latest Signals In The Housing Markets: August 2023

<ul>
<li>A weekly curated selection of Chinese news articles and company announcements focused on developers in distress</li>
<li>We look for their deals, updates, specific project progress news ('local signals'), as well as relevant local research commentaries about the market</li>
<li>We do not verify the underlying data or provide any opinion, we only select and summarize the information; see direct links to sources</li>
</ul>


A weekly curated selection of Chinese news articles and company announcements focused on developers in distress
We look for their deals, updates, specific project progress news ('local signals'), as well as relevant local research commentaries about the market
We do not verify the underlying data or provide any opinion, we only select and summarize the information; see direct links to sources


China Property Developers In Distress - Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | 11-17 August 2023

Market & Forensics Analyst, Beat the Street

Nimish Maheshwari

Market & Forensics Analyst

Beat the Street

Beat The Street was founded by Nimish Maheshwari and Sudarshan Bhandari, both of whom are Chartered Accountants by Profession, known for their expert analysis in the fields of Business, Sectoral analysis, and Corporate governance.

With a strong social media presence of 45,000+ Subscribers across various platforms, they are considered trusted voices in the industry. Their insights and analysis have been featured in some of India’s most prominent publications, including the Economic Times, Dalal Street Investment Journal, The Morning Context, and The Ken.

Their analysis on Bankrupt & Insolvent companies has been instrumental in saving investors from significant losses. They have a keen eye for identifying red flags and has identified exclusive redflags earlier in Vedanta, Nykaa, Dhani Services, Adani and many more.

Read Business Not Stock Prices

Forensic Accounting

<ul>
<li>2024 witnessed an unprecedented rise in financial crimes, including an 8x surge in Indian banking fraud, massive cryptocurrency heists, and large-scale corporate fraud like Evergrande's $78 billion scandal.</li>
<li>These scams exposed vulnerabilities in technology, governance, and public awareness, underscoring the urgent need for robust regulatory frameworks, enhanced corporate accountability, and public education.</li>
<li>The evolving sophistication of financial crimes highlights the necessity for vigilance, technological resilience, and proactive measures by individuals, businesses, and governments to mitigate risks in an interconnected world.</li>
</ul>


2024 witnessed an unprecedented rise in financial crimes, including an 8x surge in Indian banking fraud, massive cryptocurrency heists, and large-scale corporate fraud like Evergrande's $78 billion scandal.
These scams exposed vulnerabilities in technology, governance, and public awareness, underscoring the urgent need for robust regulatory frameworks, enhanced corporate accountability, and public education.
The evolving sophistication of financial crimes highlights the necessity for vigilance, technological resilience, and proactive measures by individuals, businesses, and governments to mitigate risks in an interconnected world.


Scams of 2024: From Digital Frauds to Corporate Collapses

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Washington H. Soul Pattinson and Co. Ltd / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Following shareholder approval, there'll be an index DELetion for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/brickworks-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2726:1" rel="noopener">Brickworks (BKW AU)</a>, and an index UPweight for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/washington-h-soul-pattinson-and-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6054:1" rel="noopener">Soul Patts (SOL AU)</a>. BKW's last day of trading is the 15th September. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/minebea-mitsumi-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5032:1" rel="noopener">Minebea Mitsumi (6479 JP)</a>'s Offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shibaura-electronics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12704:1" rel="noopener">Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP)</a>. That leaves this to be done by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yageo-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13212:1" rel="noopener">Yageo Corporation (2327 TT)</a>, unopposed.</li>
<li>After a protracted succession stoush, Rupert Murdoch's son Lachlan asserts control of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/news-corp-class-b" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5990:1" rel="noopener">News Corp Class B (NWS US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fox-corp-b470c4a5-c947-401c-af9f-3e6497d73406" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36135:1" rel="noopener">Fox (FOXA US)</a>.</li>
</ul>


Following shareholder approval, there'll be an index DELetion for Brickworks (BKW AU), and an index UPweight for Soul Patts (SOL AU). BKW's last day of trading is the 15th September. 

Minebea Mitsumi (6479 JP)'s Offer for Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP). That leaves this to be done by Yageo Corporation (2327 TT), unopposed.
After a protracted succession stoush, Rupert Murdoch's son Lachlan asserts control of News Corp Class B (NWS US) and Fox (FOXA US).


Last Week In Event SPACE: Brickworks/Soul Patts, Shibaura Electronics, News Corp/Fox/REA, Dongfeng

China

China Evergrande Group is an integrated residential property developer. The Company, through its subsidiaries, operates in property development, investment, management, finance, internet, health, culture, and tourism markets.

Price Gauge
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Evergrande (3333 HK)

China Housing - Demand-Supply Fundamentals Part #1: The "Modern Housing" Argument

How oversupplied is the China housing market? Thinking beyond the current downturn and crisis for many developers, the answer might not be so simple.

Robert Ciemniak

China Property - The Latest Signals In The Housing Markets: August 2023

China Property: We highlight the latest indicators for July and August for the new home markets in China, as well as the latest policy developments.

Robert Ciemniak

China Property Developers In Distress - Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | 11-17 August 2023

A weekly summary of a curated set of Chinese news articles/posts and company announcements focused on developers in distress.

Robert Ciemniak

Scams of 2024: From Digital Frauds to Corporate Collapses

Financial crimes surged in 2024, exposing vulnerabilities in technology and governance, emphasizing the need for robust regulations, corporate...

Nimish Maheshwari

Last Week In Event SPACE: Brickworks/Soul Patts, Shibaura Electronics, News Corp/Fox/REA, Dongfeng

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

China Housing - Demand-Supply Fundamentals Part #1: The "Modern Housing" Argument

How oversupplied is the China housing market? Thinking beyond the current downturn and crisis for many developers, the answer might not be so simple.

Robert Ciemniak

China Property - The Latest Signals In The Housing Markets: August 2023

China Property: We highlight the latest indicators for July and August for the new home markets in China, as well as the latest policy developments.

Robert Ciemniak

China Property Developers In Distress - Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | 11-17 August 2023

A weekly summary of a curated set of Chinese news articles/posts and company announcements focused on developers in distress.

Robert Ciemniak

Scams of 2024: From Digital Frauds to Corporate Collapses

​Financial crimes surged in 2024, exposing vulnerabilities in technology and governance, emphasizing the need for robust regulations, corporate...

Nimish Maheshwari

Last Week In Event SPACE: Brickworks/Soul Patts, Shibaura Electronics, News Corp/Fox/REA, Dongfeng

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

Financial crimes surged in 2024, exposing vulnerabilities in technology and governance, emphasizing the need for robust regulations, corporate...